January 19 RGEM leeside Apps low and following arctic blast tracking and obs

[Daniel Boone]

17 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I mean, it’s not like the last 6 runs of the GFS is staying put…….there is a definite trend at the surface. Looking at 500 there’s a limit how far north and west this can make it, but getting scraped isn’t out of the question for some, IMO.

They'll be some pretty hefty Totals in SC, NC and SE Virginia. Ratios will rise quickly once the Arctic air rapidly presses in. 

[PowellVolz]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

They'll be some pretty hefty Totals in SC, NC and SE Virginia. Ratios will rise quickly once the Arctic air rapidly presses in. 

For once we need the plateau and the mountains to do us a solid and slow the front down as it passes by but as we know this only happens when we don’t want it to slow down lol… Will be interesting to see how progressive the 1st cold front is Saturday night. A slower front Saturday night might allow for more anafront moisture to hang around longer. 

[*Flash*]

Bringing it back to the weekend, Chris Bailey issued his First Call map but hinted at tweaks…

[jaxjagman]

12 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Bringing it back to the weekend, Chris Bailey issued his First Call map but hinted at tweaks…

Cumberland should be the jack pot as usual,if we get a dusing here i'd say it was a win

[jaxjagman]

GFS has a stronger system with more wrap into East Tn this run

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

GFS has a stronger system with more wrap into East Tn this run

Maybe its about the same but you can still see when the LP gets into N/Carolina it is stronger Than the 12z was

[John1122]

Currently sitting at 31. The Euro has hinted that frozen precip would fall at the start of this event. I'm sure the temps will shoot up later. 

[jaxjagman]

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Currently sitting at 31. The Euro has hinted that frozen precip would fall at the start of this event. I'm sure the temps will shoot up later. 

If the HRR is anywhere right there could we a weaker clipper riding the trough,least thats what im seeing,you can see this on its CAMS

[John1122]

The Canadian is rock solid in its depiction of Sat night/Sunday once again.  It may be wrong, but other models are folding towards it and the RGEM. 

[John1122]

The Canadian has snow over all of East Tennessee with pt 2 as well. I wonder if it's handling of a stronger system Sunday is what's flavoring how Tuesday unfolds. 

[Jed33]

Was just noticing that too John! The Canadian worked back north a good bit that time from the get go back in OK and AR. It looked a lot like the 12z and 0z runs from yesterday 

[John1122]

Pretty big NW jog from the Canadian there. 1.5 inches around Nashville, rising to 3-6 inches in the eastern forum areas. That's just from the second wave on Tuesday. 

[John1122]

The Canadian gets us here by Wednesday morning.