January 19 RGEM leeside Apps low and following arctic blast tracking and obs

[Daniel Boone]

17 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I mean, it’s not like the last 6 runs of the GFS is staying put…….there is a definite trend at the surface. Looking at 500 there’s a limit how far north and west this can make it, but getting scraped isn’t out of the question for some, IMO.

They'll be some pretty hefty Totals in SC, NC and SE Virginia. Ratios will rise quickly once the Arctic air rapidly presses in. 

[PowellVolz]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

They'll be some pretty hefty Totals in SC, NC and SE Virginia. Ratios will rise quickly once the Arctic air rapidly presses in. 

For once we need the plateau and the mountains to do us a solid and slow the front down as it passes by but as we know this only happens when we don’t want it to slow down lol… Will be interesting to see how progressive the 1st cold front is Saturday night. A slower front Saturday night might allow for more anafront moisture to hang around longer. 

[*Flash*]

Bringing it back to the weekend, Chris Bailey issued his First Call map but hinted at tweaks…

[jaxjagman]

12 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Bringing it back to the weekend, Chris Bailey issued his First Call map but hinted at tweaks…

Cumberland should be the jack pot as usual,if we get a dusing here i'd say it was a win

[jaxjagman]

GFS has a stronger system with more wrap into East Tn this run

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

GFS has a stronger system with more wrap into East Tn this run

Maybe its about the same but you can still see when the LP gets into N/Carolina it is stronger Than the 12z was

[John1122]

Currently sitting at 31. The Euro has hinted that frozen precip would fall at the start of this event. I'm sure the temps will shoot up later. 

[jaxjagman]

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Currently sitting at 31. The Euro has hinted that frozen precip would fall at the start of this event. I'm sure the temps will shoot up later. 

If the HRR is anywhere right there could we a weaker clipper riding the trough,least thats what im seeing,you can see this on its CAMS

[John1122]

The Canadian is rock solid in its depiction of Sat night/Sunday once again.  It may be wrong, but other models are folding towards it and the RGEM. 

[John1122]

The Canadian has snow over all of East Tennessee with pt 2 as well. I wonder if it's handling of a stronger system Sunday is what's flavoring how Tuesday unfolds. 

[Jed33]

Was just noticing that too John! The Canadian worked back north a good bit that time from the get go back in OK and AR. It looked a lot like the 12z and 0z runs from yesterday 

[John1122]

Pretty big NW jog from the Canadian there. 1.5 inches around Nashville, rising to 3-6 inches in the eastern forum areas. That's just from the second wave on Tuesday. 

[John1122]

The Canadian gets us here by Wednesday morning. 

 

[Matthew70]

38 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian gets us here by Wednesday morning. 

 

I will take that and cash out with the most likely much warmer temps the Euro is advertising in 10 days. 

[John1122]

Euro came west/north from 12z. Has snow on the Tennessee/NC border. Looks like the Canadian but about 100 miles East. 

[John1122]

The HRRR randomly dumps 7 inches in a small strip near the central Plateau with the 06z run. The NAM is increasing totals vs it's prior runs, as is the 3k.

[John1122]

It's the NAM at range but it's much further north initially with the precip vs the GFS/Euro etc with the Tuesday system. By Tuesday at 11am the storm isn't too far off shore of the Gulf Coast and precip is in Mid-Tn.

[John1122]

The NAM is trying for us. Granted it's often overamped when it starts getting a system in range. But that would likely have been a big run if it went out to 120.

[John1122]

The couple of spots in the area where the NAM blossomed some precip Tuesday morning were 20:1 ratios, it dropped a couple of 4 inch dollops.

[John1122]

MRX with a Winter Storm Watch for the mountains and a WWA for a couple of SWVA counties. JKL with a Winter Weather Advisory for their entire CWA. Surprised MRX didn't put an advisory out for at least the horseshoe counties since the NAM nest is giving advisory level snowfall. The RGEM just came close to Winter Storm criteria for parts of the Northern Plateau.

[John1122]

JKL talks about intense snowfall rates and a connection from Lake Michigan for their CWA, especially around the Cumberlands/Black Mountains. They said meso winter storm warnings or even snow squall warnings may be needed with visibilities down to .1 miles.  They said the secondary arctic front moving through on Sunday would see omega values ideally centered in the DGZ and steep low-level lapse rates. Some of that just reaches into parts of Tennessee on the RGEM. It delivers 3-4 inches around my area and Scott County extended almost all the way back to Clarksville.

[John1122]

OHX disco says the NBM says not much snow in the Cumberland Plateau, so they aren't issuing any WWA there, even though hi-res models are picking up on additional energy that would extend snow into the afternoon. Then they note they are punting it to the next shift. MRX AFD is MIA as of 4:30 but I assume they will also roll with the NBM.

[John1122]

The GFS gives Knoxville 2 inches Sunday.

[John1122]

MRX finally releases their disco. Word salad that says little and kinda ignores/doesn't mention modeling and their own graphic they released yesterday showing 1-2 inches across a good portion of the area. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think John might just will this into being! 

[*Flash*]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

OHX disco says the NBM says not much snow in the Cumberland Plateau, so they aren't issuing any WWA there, even though hi-res models are picking up on additional energy that would extend snow into the afternoon. Then they note they are punting it to the next shift. MRX AFD is MIA as of 4:30 but I assume they will also roll with the NBM.

Typical of them. I get playing it safe but lacking testicular fortitude is another issue altogether. Seems to me at least part of the plateau will be worth of a WWA.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For midweek, a lot seems to depend on this little booger off the CA coast:

 

NAM shows less interaction:

 

More precip makes it NW as the second N stream piece drops down out of Canada:

 

RGEM now shows more interaction:

 

since it gets hung up a bit, there is less interaction and so precip is a bit south:

Although honestly it's still not too far off. 

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

OHX disco says the NBM says not much snow in the Cumberland Plateau, so they aren't issuing any WWA there, even though hi-res models are picking up on additional energy that would extend snow into the afternoon. Then they note they are punting it to the next shift. MRX AFD is MIA as of 4:30 but I assume they will also roll with the NBM.

Probably the next shift will,hard to believe they they wouldnt put out a WWA for the mountains

[jaxjagman]

25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

For midweek, a lot seems to depend on this little booger off the CA coast:

 

NAM shows less interaction:

 

More precip makes it NW as the second N stream piece drops down out of Canada:

 

RGEM now shows more interaction:

 

since it gets hung up a bit, there is less interaction and so precip is a bit south:

Although honestly it's still not too far off. 

lol...if we miss out on snow from the mid of next week until Feb im going to severe,systems seem close to every 3-4 days

[*Flash*]

12z HRRR paints a slightly more realistic picture than it was yesterday, though there are still several 1" bands on the map. The plateau looks good to me. Hopefully, we can capitalize on what will be the mid-state's best chance for snow during the next 7 days...

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