Blue Dream Posted Saturday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:04 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Saturday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:06 PM How bout some thunder snow per Steve DiMartino at NYNJPA Weather? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Saturday at 03:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:07 PM RGEM finally backed off its insane inland runner solution. Looks like a solid 4-8” from the Philly burbs through the LV, up to 10” in the Poconos. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Saturday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:08 PM Give me the wrapped up RGEM solution with the NAM thermals. (I’m not greedy or anything.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted Saturday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:08 PM RGEM moved further SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted Saturday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:20 PM 12 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: RGEM finally backed off its insane inland runner solution. Looks like a solid 4-8” from the Philly burbs through the LV, up to 10” in the Poconos. Sounds like a classic snowstorm for our area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:20 PM 38 minutes ago, JTA66 said: FV3 looks like a compromise between the RGEM & HRRR vs the NAM. In other words, we just can’t know! Maybe Redsky should cup his hands and start blowing towards the southeast to see if that might move the baroclinic zone just a little further southeast? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted Saturday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:21 PM 54 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: NAMs might be cold but they’re very dry. Less than 6” everywhere in our region. We're set up for a proper Namming at 18z! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 03:22 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:22 PM 19 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: RGEM shifted a little southeast. I’ll take it. Here comes the cave at the last hour! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 03:31 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:31 PM Think we may be at the beginning of the models picking up on the progressive nature of the flow with no blocking and the cold air allowed to slosh east southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted Saturday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:32 PM The Meso's are in play. The delayed start time is usual when trying to overcome the huge amount of dry air in place. Typically starts off as pixie dust and within the hour becomes a moderate snow. The models have a tough time ingesting this dry air for start timing and accumulations as we are in the depth of this huge arctic air mass this time around.. As the moisture and evaporative cooling snowfall overcomes the dry layers in the atmosphere, the snow ratios will increase dramatically thus the moderate snow quickly becomes heavy snow (Fluff factor). If it was windy, we would have whiteout conditions but the LP, I believe is not deep enough and too far away from the coast this time. The HRDPS model is a trusting model for this particular storm event IMHO because it shows the fragmentation of the upper air patterns as the LP lifts northward off the coast. For the LV , also reaching the benchmark usually gives a decent snowfall event so I feel good about getting over 6 inches for a winter storm warning. Banding of the snow is an issue that the meso's seem to have trouble identifying the approximate locations. Where those band setup and the progressives of the LP off the coast is the real determining factor. The storm in Macungie last Feb was a good example of this. Someone will get a lollipop of 10+ inches in the warned areas and we all hope it is over us. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted Saturday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:43 PM 35 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: How bout some thunder snow per Steve DiMartino at NYNJPA Weather? It’s been forever that has happened I remember 96 was nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Saturday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:43 PM 18 hours ago, MGorse said: Not sure (I have been off from work), but based on the snowfall forecast map it should be included in my opinion. Any updated thoughts, Mike, on why lower bucks was/is left out of the WSWatch attm⁉️ Asking for a friend (no really)‼️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted Saturday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:46 PM GFS looking good again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted Saturday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:49 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Saturday at 03:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:50 PM I know we are more in the short range/convective model timeframe now but since it's running, here's the 12 GFS - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Saturday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:00 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted Saturday at 04:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:10 PM Jackpot stripe seems to be lining up on all the models at this point, matching up with best 700H frontogenesis during the initial thump. Lancaster - Reading - Allentown or points just east of there. Hopefully for parts further east, we get a bit of a convective finish as the low intensifies off the coast, and that banding slides east-northeast. Those mesoscale features determine our max potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted Saturday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:14 PM 3 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said: My holly updated their map So the NWS has a WSW for 5-8 inches, but also only show a few inches on their map of WWA amounts. why?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Saturday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:18 PM 2 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said: So the NWS has a WSW for 5-8 inches, but also only show a few inches on their map of WWA amounts. why?? They will convert spots with more than 5" expected to warnings later and downgrade to WWA for those not meeting the Winter Storm Warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted Saturday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:23 PM Still looking good for places like Allentown/bethlehem for a solid 4-8in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Saturday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:38 PM 23 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said: So the NWS has a WSW for 5-8 inches, but also only show a few inches on their map of WWA amounts. why?? Check the time stamp of the WSW and compare with the map I posted. I bet the WSW was late last night after the trend south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Saturday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:48 PM While not likely could this event make the Top 25.....Here are the Top 25 Chester and SE Berks County January Snowstorms. I have seen 10 of the top 25....you?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted Saturday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:17 PM 27 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: While not likely could this event make the Top 25.....Here are the Top 25 Chester and SE Berks County January Snowstorms. I have seen 10 of the top 25....you?? I've seen 6. I just missed out 87 and 88, which would have been 8. The 2005 one, of course, was the NFC Championship Game against the Falcons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Saturday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:19 PM 1 hour ago, snowwors2 said: Any updated thoughts, Mike, on why lower bucks was/is left out of the WSWatch attm⁉️ Asking for a friend (no really)‼️ 1 hour ago, kickingupastorm said: So the NWS has a WSW for 5-8 inches, but also only show a few inches on their map of WWA amounts. why?? 57 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: They will convert spots with more than 5" expected to warnings later and downgrade to WWA for those not meeting the Winter Storm Warning criteria 37 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Check the time stamp of the WSW and compare with the map I posted. I bet the WSW was late last night after the trend south and east No, there is definitely some confusion @ mt holly since there initial WSWatch issued from 3pm yesterday (Mike G seemed to agree)⁉️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Saturday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:26 PM Euro looks similar to 6z. A little colder for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted Saturday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:35 PM 9 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Euro looks similar to 6z. A little colder for I-95. Should be a snowy game tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Saturday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:49 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: Classic SECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM No changes with the UKMET Goalposts are set at a moderate 4-7" snow for majority of the region, 3" or lesser amounts southeast Jersey. Some lucky peeps might lollipop 8" but the system is moving to quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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