Birds~69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 hours ago, JTA66 said: So the Cowboys are now the only NFC East team to NOT reach the championship game this century ....and 4 playoff wins total since 2000. Come on Birds, win tomorrow and you get another game at home. 33f/cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z NAM is ugly dry Even refreshed in hopes I had old cache 2-3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 NAM has 1" snow fallen at 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6z seems to always suck before a storm to get us weenies in an uproar, I never take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 So in the last couple hours, we went from celebrating a few crush jobs to despairing barely an inch. This storm sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said: So in the last couple hours, we went from celebrating a few crush jobs to despairing barely an inch. This storm sucks. It's one 6z model and besides start looking at the radar. Models start become useless at this point, it's on our doorstep. We can see what's happening better than models predicting. It's game time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 WSW has now been ticked to the east to include Philly metro - Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 454 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 PAZ070-071-104-106-192300- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.250119T1500Z-250120T0600Z/ Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Morrisville, Norristown, Doylestown, Lansdale, Media, and Philadelphia 454 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 6 inches. * WHERE...Delaware, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, and Philadelphia Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Currently 34 with dp 33 and misty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 16 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: WSW has now been ticked to the east to include Philly metro - Currently 34 with dp 33 and misty. The 4-6" I think is the perfect and correct amount. Cold air rushing in afterwards with several days well below normal... good storm. Just need a Birds win and everything will fall right into place.. 32 f/cloudy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Not gonna lie it's a bit concerning how all the models have been drying up over the past few runs. The weaker storm does get more areas into the action but the obvious trade off it lower qpf. Precip should begin to blossom over the next few hours. WSW for 5-8 here in Berks. My bar is set lower than that, hoping I get surprised. 33* 31dpSent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 32 minutes ago, Fields27 said: Not gonna lie it's a bit concerning how all the models have been drying up over the past few runs. The weaker storm does get more areas into the action but the obvious trade off it lower qpf. Precip should begin to blossom over the next few hours. WSW for 5-8 here in Berks. My bar is set lower than that, hoping I get surprised. 33* 31dp Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Be happy with what you get. Around here we've been getting an inch or so events and that's about it. If somehow I can get three to four inches plus I'll take that along with the Arctic blast coming in...this was never meant to be a huge storm. 32f/cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Thought I might wake up to a downgraded Winter Weather Advisory instead woke up to the Winter Storm Warning upgraded to 5-8 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Thought I might wake up to a downgraded Winter Weather Advisory instead woke up to the Winter Storm Warning upgraded to 5-8 lol for the newbies: as the LP gets wrapped up, the snow ratios will go up. Looking at models 6 hours hours before this type of storm event is useless. Its all radar folks. A true meteorologist knows the historical function of past events too- just not relying on modelogy. Watch and learn. My Holly is spot on. The HRDPS and HRRR is what to be looking at if you are counting inches. Basically, where the frontogenisis banding sets up. The sweet spot for banding with a historical benchmark storm like this one for good snow banding is in northern montgomery, bucks and the LV. Lets just see how it pans out. Anyway the best part of this storm is the cold and blowing snow afterwards with a chance of thundersnow in the snow banding too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 32 minutes ago, Albedoman said: for the newbies: as the LP gets wrapped up, the snow ratios will go up. Looking at models 6 hours hours before this type of storm event is useless. Its all radar folks. A true meteorologist knows the historical function of past events too- just not relying on modelogy. Watch and learn. My Holly is spot on. The HRDPS and HRRR is what to be looking at if you are counting inches. Basically, where the frontogenisis banding sets up. The sweet spot for banding with a historical benchmark storm like this one for good snow banding is in northern montgomery, bucks and the LV. Lets just see how it pans out. Anyway the best part of this storm is the cold and blowing snow afterwards with a chance of thundersnow in the snow banding too. My observation of the bolded part of the quote is that I've seen this many times, so there's some truth to it. The flip side of that is that my location north of the Blue Mountain in Schuylkill County ends up being in a subsidence zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Guidance overnight has ticked considerably lower with snowfall totals. Part of that is the quickness of the system. The other part is the banding looks extremely confined and less widespread now. In any event I still think a general 2-5" seems like a good range for this one with a couple isolated areas under the banding seeing 3-6/7". Expectation here in Warminster set at 2.1" Eta: keep in mind when these bands develop, areas adjacent will see subsidence and weaker radar returns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The latest NAM and WRF's are digging South/West Jersey. That rain/snow line is uncomfortably close, though. Currently 34.7F with a dew of 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 hours ago, Birds~69 said: It's one 6z model and besides start looking at the radar. Models start become useless at this point, it's on our doorstep. We can see what's happening better than models predicting. It's game time! Exactly, it’s go time just watch the radar for the trends now or you’ll just drive yourself insane. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The only thing limiting snowfall amounts will be timing. How fast this storm will exit out of the area. Keep in mind that it always ends sooner than predicted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 32F Dp30 calm winds, certainly looks like snow out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Sky has that March 2018 dark ominous instability look off to the West. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 for the newbies: as the LP gets wrapped up, the snow ratios will go up. Looking at models 6 hours hours before this type of storm event is useless. Its all radar folks. A true meteorologist knows the historical function of past events too- just not relying on modelogy. Watch and learn. My Holly is spot on. The HRDPS and HRRR is what to be looking at if you are counting inches. Basically, where the frontogenisis banding sets up. The sweet spot for banding with a historical benchmark storm like this one for good snow banding is in northern montgomery, bucks and the LV. Lets just see how it pans out. Anyway the best part of this storm is the cold and blowing snow afterwards with a chance of thundersnow in the snow banding too. Speaking of... via Radar scope, those returns in Lebanon are actually making it to the ground. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Sky has that March 2018 dark ominous instability look off to the West. Yep, I can see the sun trying its best to rise but looking to the West I see dark ominous clouds saying no way. Let's hope for the best, Birds and weather... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Flurries have begun in Western Berks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Obs thread created 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Radar is matching with last night's RAP that was well West. Just a heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Overnight models before snow time / HRRR time and radar hallucinations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 In case anyone wondered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Graupel shower just started here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 First flakes here. Earlier than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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