Kevin Reilly Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Currently clear 35f humidity 95% dewpoint 34f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not picking an argument, but Paul, why are you posting the Kuchera maps for this event? These are extremely misleading as ratios for much of the event will be 10:1-12:1 maybe slightly higher towards the back end as system pulls away and colder air works in. I would cut most of those map totals by 35-40% tbh. This system will be hauling ass to boot. The hauling ass no one has really mentioned. Basically get what you can when you can or this thing will be out of here.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not picking an argument, but Paul, why are you posting the Kuchera maps for this event? These are extremely misleading as ratios for much of the event will be 10:1-12:1 maybe slightly higher towards the back end as system pulls away and colder air works in. I would cut most of those map totals by 35-40% tbh. This system will be hauling ass to boot. K maps will work best in a case like this with maybe less than 10:1 for some folks to start with increasing ratios.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Almost wonder if places get downgraded from a 4-7in Warning to a 3-5in Advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Duca892 said: Almost wonder if places get downgraded from a 4-7in Warning to a 3-5in Advisory Certainly a possibility! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not picking an argument, but Paul, why are you posting the Kuchera maps for this event? These are extremely misleading as ratios for much of the event will be 10:1-12:1 maybe slightly higher towards the back end as system pulls away and colder air works in. I would cut most of those map totals by 35-40% tbh. This system will be hauling ass to boot. And the Herpes model never did anybody good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Some official NWS forecasts for various towns across the area as of 8pm Saturday Elverson 4" to 10" East Nantmeal/ Honey Brook / Reading / Allentown 4" to 9" Exton/ Downingtown/West Chester 4" to 7" Chadds Ford 3" to 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Certainly a possibility! I don't think they would adjust anything before the 00z models come out. For me that's the last important model run... Radar watching from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 30 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: How about some 18z maps....NAM the lowest and Oh Canada the highest....let the games begin! Personally I ride the Euro.... The NAM is a Tamaqua screw job, but I've seen that exact scenario plays out numerous times in the 20 years I've been living up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 0z HRRR has about 3” of snow falling in Philly during tomorrow’s game. Total accumulation is 5-7” for most of the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 0z HRRR has about 3” of snow falling in Philly during tomorrow’s game. Total accumulation is 5-7” for most of the area. Starting 0z off right with the meth model 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 0z HRRR has about 3” of snow falling in Philly during tomorrow’s game. Total accumulation is 5-7” for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Ralph don't do the RAP, actually don't look at it you'll thank me later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Ralph don't do the RAP, actually don't look at it you'll thank me later Wth is the fv3 doing? Surprises coming with this system guaranteed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The Canadian always seems to do okay when there's been a lot of cold air around. Nam has been scoring well and tends to model frontogenesis well. How does cold air damming work into the mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wth is the fv3 doing? Surprises coming with this system guaranteed. Wth is the NAM doing lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 NAM is east RAP is 150 miles west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The NAM continues to poke random holes in the precip shield like Swiss cheese so it’s hard to take its precip output seriously. The 3km is much more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 FV3 wants to burry us it's meso mayhem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 NAM is good for Atlantic City 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: FV3 wants to burry us it's meso mayhem HRDPS should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: HRDPS should be good. Looks like i picked the wrong time to stop sniffing glue 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 What the hell is going on with these models??? Gotta be the dynamics!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: The NAM continues to poke random holes in the precip shield like Swiss cheese so it’s hard to take its precip output seriously. The 3km is much more reasonable. Yeah 3k much more reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Looks like i picked the wrong time to stop sniffing glue Testors? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Kevin Reilly said: What the hell is going on with these models??? Gotta be the dynamics!! Meso midnight madness at the disco 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: What the hell is going on with these models??? Gotta be the dynamics!! Convective feedback. When all else fails, blame convective feedback. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Late night GFS and Euro is what I'm waiting for... Oh yeah, Washington playing well up 17-14 over the Lions which is hiuge for the Birds if they win... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Convective feedback. When all else fails, blame convective feedback. Bad data ingested 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: Looks like i picked the wrong time to stop sniffing glue How we all feel after this week watching the models. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now