Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 05:58 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:58 PM Looks legit. All guidance now has snow for parts of the region, albeit differering amount and precip type. Post crap here for the Sunday thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 06:01 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:01 PM NAM is out to lunch and late to the game more than likely. Too vigorous of shortwave to not have something at the surface. Go home NAM, you're drunk....come back when you're ready to give us a NAMMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted yesterday at 06:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:05 PM 12z Euro said no, just another 1-3” event. Ensembles look better as they have for the last few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted yesterday at 06:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:05 PM Maybe it's been mentioned and I missed it, UKMET is 3-5" with straight 10:1 ratios. And has the bulk of precipitation even further west than the CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 06:07 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:07 PM 1 minute ago, LVblizzard said: 12z Euro said no, just another 1-3” event. Ensembles look better as they have for the last few cycles. 1-3" as the lowest model range is perfectly acceptable. Beggars can't be choosers. I'm more concerned with this amping up too much and being 'warm' right along I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 06:08 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:08 PM 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Maybe it's been mentioned and I missed it, UKMET is 3-5" with straight 10:1 ratios. And has the bulk of precipitation even further west than the CMC. EPS and GEFS sorta mirror each other with a respectable event I95 N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted yesterday at 06:21 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:21 PM Ya had to start a thread. Now I'm expecting sunny and 65F on Sunday with the Iggles getting crushed 87-0 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted yesterday at 06:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:24 PM 12z NAM is sliding the low sort of OTS from the Carolinas, so it swings and misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted yesterday at 06:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:38 PM 11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 12z NAM is sliding the low sort of OTS from the Carolinas, so it swings and misses. Isn't this the old "convective feedback" issue, where the NAM would jump the low out by the thunderstorms and not along the baroclinic zone close to the coast? We're still several days out, so who knows? Maybe the NAM at range is right...for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted yesterday at 06:44 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:44 PM 12 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Isn't this the old "convective feedback" issue, where the NAM would jump the low out by the thunderstorms and not along the baroclinic zone close to the coast? We're still several days out, so who knows? Maybe the NAM at range is right...for once. Since it's supposed to be bitter cold next week, it looks to me like it has the arctic front suppressing the thing to the south and then having it ride on up the eastern side of it. ETA - adding the 12z EC & GFS (the NAM only has the one low whereas the EC & GFS have an antecedent low that seems to keep the arctic high from digging as deep). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted yesterday at 07:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:54 PM 18z NAM running. Hope it can find clouds or something on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 08:01 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 08:01 PM 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: 18z NAM running. Hope it can find clouds or something on Sunday. I injected the NAM with some good juju via this thread. Might take til 12z Sunday for it to reflect anything tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 08:38 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 08:38 PM The NAM is slowly catching on. I told you man, good juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted yesterday at 08:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:40 PM 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The NAM is slowly catching on. I told you man, good juju. Yup it found clouds, waiting if there's anything else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted yesterday at 08:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:40 PM 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The NAM is slowly catching on. I told you man, good juju. Still a whiff for us but at least it has SOMETHING this time. The 12z run didn’t even bother to form a low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted yesterday at 08:40 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 08:40 PM Beauty of a vorticity pass over us. Now let the surface play catch-up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted yesterday at 09:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:10 PM Eagles postseason snowstorms (2000-present) Wild Card 2000 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2004 NFC Championship vs. Atlanta Falcons (clipper turned Nor'easter) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted yesterday at 09:57 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:57 PM Fuck the RGEM. I like the GFs again lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted yesterday at 10:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:00 PM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted yesterday at 10:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:00 PM As noted - the 18z NAM found the other low (although it still does a whiff)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Almost like universally 2-5in for many across the board. Well… aside from NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago All 0z models have pretty much held serve so far. Except for the RGEM which runs the low basically over Philly now, and the ICON which got a little weaker but still gives us a decent 3-6" event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: All 0z models have pretty much held serve so far. Except for the RGEM which runs the low basically over Philly now, and the ICON which got a little weaker but still gives us a decent 3-6" event. Euro came in west, add that to the 3-6” camp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago ECM/UKMET agreement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 6z GFS just casually dropping 8-10in of snow for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago I’m a big lover of the “Winter Storm Warning” vs “Advisory” and if this can hold the Lehigh Valley area might get its first Warning of the year. To be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Duca892 said: I’m a big lover of the “Winter Storm Warning” vs “Advisory” and if this can hold the Lehigh Valley area might get its first Warning of the year. To be seen For sure, wsw will go up for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago This is shaping up to possibly be our "big one" for the winter N and W of I95. Definitely savor the heck out of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Especially happening during the day and playoff football. Gonna be tough sleeping Saturday night. And I'm over 40 years old lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Cautiously optimistic here in Lower Bucks…the west trend can stop now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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