Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Looks legit. All guidance now has snow for parts of the region, albeit differering amount and precip type. Post crap here for the Sunday thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 NAM is out to lunch and late to the game more than likely. Too vigorous of shortwave to not have something at the surface. Go home NAM, you're drunk....come back when you're ready to give us a NAMMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12z Euro said no, just another 1-3” event. Ensembles look better as they have for the last few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Maybe it's been mentioned and I missed it, UKMET is 3-5" with straight 10:1 ratios. And has the bulk of precipitation even further west than the CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:05 PM, LVblizzard said: 12z Euro said no, just another 1-3” event. Ensembles look better as they have for the last few cycles. Expand 1-3" as the lowest model range is perfectly acceptable. Beggars can't be choosers. I'm more concerned with this amping up too much and being 'warm' right along I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:05 PM, RedSky said: Maybe it's been mentioned and I missed it, UKMET is 3-5" with straight 10:1 ratios. And has the bulk of precipitation even further west than the CMC. Expand EPS and GEFS sorta mirror each other with a respectable event I95 N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Ya had to start a thread. Now I'm expecting sunny and 65F on Sunday with the Iggles getting crushed 87-0 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12z NAM is sliding the low sort of OTS from the Carolinas, so it swings and misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:24 PM, Hurricane Agnes said: 12z NAM is sliding the low sort of OTS from the Carolinas, so it swings and misses. Expand Isn't this the old "convective feedback" issue, where the NAM would jump the low out by the thunderstorms and not along the baroclinic zone close to the coast? We're still several days out, so who knows? Maybe the NAM at range is right...for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:38 PM, JTA66 said: Isn't this the old "convective feedback" issue, where the NAM would jump the low out by the thunderstorms and not along the baroclinic zone close to the coast? We're still several days out, so who knows? Maybe the NAM at range is right...for once. Expand Since it's supposed to be bitter cold next week, it looks to me like it has the arctic front suppressing the thing to the south and then having it ride on up the eastern side of it. ETA - adding the 12z EC & GFS (the NAM only has the one low whereas the EC & GFS have an antecedent low that seems to keep the arctic high from digging as deep). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 18z NAM running. Hope it can find clouds or something on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 7:54 PM, RedSky said: 18z NAM running. Hope it can find clouds or something on Sunday. Expand I injected the NAM with some good juju via this thread. Might take til 12z Sunday for it to reflect anything tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 The NAM is slowly catching on. I told you man, good juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 8:38 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: The NAM is slowly catching on. I told you man, good juju. Expand Yup it found clouds, waiting if there's anything else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 8:38 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: The NAM is slowly catching on. I told you man, good juju. Expand Still a whiff for us but at least it has SOMETHING this time. The 12z run didn’t even bother to form a low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Beauty of a vorticity pass over us. Now let the surface play catch-up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Eagles postseason snowstorms (2000-present) Wild Card 2000 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2004 NFC Championship vs. Atlanta Falcons (clipper turned Nor'easter) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Fuck the RGEM. I like the GFs again lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 As noted - the 18z NAM found the other low (although it still does a whiff)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Almost like universally 2-5in for many across the board. Well… aside from NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 All 0z models have pretty much held serve so far. Except for the RGEM which runs the low basically over Philly now, and the ICON which got a little weaker but still gives us a decent 3-6" event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 4:14 AM, LVblizzard said: All 0z models have pretty much held serve so far. Except for the RGEM which runs the low basically over Philly now, and the ICON which got a little weaker but still gives us a decent 3-6" event. Expand Euro came in west, add that to the 3-6” camp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 ECM/UKMET agreement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6z GFS just casually dropping 8-10in of snow for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I’m a big lover of the “Winter Storm Warning” vs “Advisory” and if this can hold the Lehigh Valley area might get its first Warning of the year. To be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 10:19 AM, Duca892 said: I’m a big lover of the “Winter Storm Warning” vs “Advisory” and if this can hold the Lehigh Valley area might get its first Warning of the year. To be seen Expand For sure, wsw will go up for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 This is shaping up to possibly be our "big one" for the winter N and W of I95. Definitely savor the heck out of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Especially happening during the day and playoff football. Gonna be tough sleeping Saturday night. And I'm over 40 years old lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Cautiously optimistic here in Lower Bucks…the west trend can stop now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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