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Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?


wdrag
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4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Mt Pocono area 2.5". my space in southern Wantage NJ 5P report 1/19/25. 2.5". Includes 1.7" snow increase past hour. 26F.  Have seen a remark of over 3" in another part of Wantage. 

Just got done shoveling. Measured 3.6" with steady moderate snow falling.

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Radar not as impressive as I’d hoped. Thinking we end with around 3” here

Radar is definitely filled with holes down south. Some heavy bands embedded for sure but not the uniform area-wide coverage that many models had down. I’m probably just under 3 and was expecting 3-6, so this will certainly be inline with my thinking throughout. 

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Radar not as impressive as I’d hoped. Thinking we end with around 3” here

We’ll just have to see what happens, I’m not optimistic. The stuff south of us looks rather shredded. Maybe it’ll strengthen later on but the best looks to be NW of us in that main band. Inland wins again. We’ll need a big turnaround to get to the 4” predicted and HRRR has been trending drier over time. 

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

Now I could be very wrong, but this just isn't looking like an event worth getting worked up over out our way. Better rip hard later.

Looks like a out a half inch currently on the ground 

 

we shall see what the rest of the night brings. 
 

2-4 still looks like a good call 

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Nothing like a walk in the snow with the mutt. I always remember Mark Twain; if you take in a stray dog and it prospers, it will remain loyal. This is the chief difference between dogs and people.......

Heh.  The house I grew up is next to the house where he spent his last years.  

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

Now I could be very wrong, but this just isn't looking like an event worth getting worked up over out our way. Better rip hard later.

We track and hope. Sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't. This is just another unique storm we got to track and experience with model divergence 48 hours out and forecasters doing the best they can with what tools they have.

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Looks like a out a half inch currently on the ground 

 

we shall see what the rest of the night brings. 
 

2-4 still looks like a good call 

I'll be pleasantly surprised to see 4. NW has already got that. It's cold enough here, we just aren't getting banding. Not sure if it is getting here or not. In a way I'm glad as my wife is at the hospital visiting her sister who had a stroke. It's been tough.

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For the most part I think this forecast is going to work out fine.  Some spots will be on low end of range and some spots close to high end.

Question if anyone sees 8" based on radar though.

My 4-6" forecast is going to work out fine for Morris county.  I am currently just a a little over 4.  Expect to finish near 6, maybe a bit more.

Screenshot 2025-01-19 at 5.17.54 PM.jpg

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