Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Yep, I think we get two distinctive bands with this. One situated on either side of I-95, the other just NW of US-202 and I-287. Bit of a subsidence screw zone in between the two. 

I think one will end up south. Monmouth county surprise jackpot over to Suffolk as the low pulls away 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HREF mean is now 4-6 everywhere with 6-8s N shore of LI and parts of NW NJ the Hudson Valley

 

 

Wondering if Upton pulls the trigger and puts up warnings for the city/LI. Decent chance at least north shore areas make it to 6" based on the data tonight.

[TJW014]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think one will end up south. Monmouth county surprise jackpot over to Suffolk as the low pulls away 

There's a reason Freehold is the CNJ snow capital lol

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wondering if Upton pulls the trigger and puts up warnings for the city/LI. Decent chance at least north shore areas make it to 6" based on the data tonight.

They usually stick with their advisories and warnings til the event is underway unless something drastic occurs

[Yanksfan]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wonder if Upton will issue winter storm warnings tomorrow morning

I’d be surprised if they don’t. Warnings need to be extended into the rest of North Jersey, the City and LI.

[Rjay]

48 minutes ago, snywx said:

Yeah having to rely on ratios isn’t gonna cut it up here. 3-5” looks to be the consensus up here now. LI up into ENE look to potentially cash in on those 6”+ amounts. If it snows in central/eastern Suffolk can almost guarantee we will be on the outside looking in. Seen this movie a few times before 

Still think you see 6"+

[the_other_guy]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wondering if Upton pulls the trigger and puts up warnings for the city/LI. Decent chance at least north shore areas make it to 6" based on the data tonight.

Totally ridiculous on their part. Watches were skewed north. 

Im under an advisory for 4-7 inches.

 

[Stormlover74]

[NEG NAO]

43 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

I’d be surprised if they don’t. Warnings need to be extended into the rest of North Jersey, the City and LI.

I mentioned this earlier BUT someone please explain why Western Union County has Winter Storm Warnings in effect for 4-6 inches total and Eastern Union only has Winter Weather Advisory in effect for 4 -6 inches total ????

ZFP from KOKX

[nightknights]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I mentioned this earlier BUT someone please explain why Western Union County has Winter Storm Warnings in effect for 4-6 inches total and Eastern Union only has Winter Weather Advisory in effect for 4 -6 inches total ????

ZFP from KOKX

Or why is there a state of emergency for a minor snow event

[USCG RS]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I mentioned this earlier BUT someone please explain why Western Union County has Winter Storm Warnings in effect for 4-6 inches total and Eastern Union only has Winter Weather Advisory in effect for 4 -6 inches total ????

ZFP from KOKX

"QPF amounts are generally going to range from 0.40 to 0.60. Expect a swath of 5 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible across the interior. Closer to the coast, amounts will range 3 to 5 inches,with locally higher amounts up to 6 possible. As a result, have converted most of the winter storm watch to a warning. The only exception was eastern Bergen County. Anywhere there was no watch and eastern Bergen county, a Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect. These headlines will start at 1pm Sunday and end at 4am Monday.

One area of concern was across the coastal locations, specifically Long Island and portions of coastal Connecticut, where I felt temperatures may have been too warm. I did lower temperatures here a bit mainly to account for wet bulbing. If temperatures are warmer than forecast, we may see more mixing or a slightly longer period of rain before a change over to all snow occurs."

No explicit explanation, but I am guessing the concern in E Bergen is about marginal temps and perhaps W Bergen they meant 4-8 and it's just a typo or a software glitch where the county isn't necessarily being divided properly .

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

11 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Or why is there a state of emergency for a minor snow event

It brings access to extra funds from the state and, at times, federally. State of emergencies tend to be more administrarive/technical designations than anything else alot of times.

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Or why is there a state of emergency for a minor snow event

State of Emergencies are issued by the Governor in NJ and IMO politics has a lot to do with it sometimes so he isn't blamed for not alerting the public .........IMO state of emergencies for a moderate snowfall is questionable at best especially a Sunday event with minimal traffic concerns and schools closed the next day

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

"QPF amounts are generally going to range from 0.40 to 0.60. Expect a swath of 5 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible across the interior. Closer to the coast, amounts will range 3 to 5 inches,with locally higher amounts up to 6 possible. As a result, have converted most of the winter storm watch to a warning. The only exception was eastern Bergen County. Anywhere there was no watch and eastern Bergen county, a Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect. These headlines will start at 1pm Sunday and end at 4am Monday.

One area of concern was across the coastal locations, specifically Long Island and portions of coastal Connecticut, where I felt temperatures may have been too warm. I did lower temperatures here a bit mainly to account for wet bulbing. If temperatures are warmer than forecast, we may see more mixing or a slightly longer period of rain before a change over to all snow occurs."

No explicit explanation, but I am guessing the concern is E Bergen is about marginal temps and perhaps W Bergen they meant 4-8 and it's just a typo or a software glitch where the county isn't necessarily being divided properly .

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

It brings access to extra funds, nothing within the state and, at times, federally. State of emergencies tend to be more administrarive/technical designations than anything else alot of times.

BUT the official forecast says 4-6 for both east and west Union County - ,most people don't have access to the discussion only the official forecast since to get the discussion you have to know where to get it

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I expect generally 3-6" region-wide with a few 7" amounts possible north and west and parts of eastern LI/South shore closer to 2".

WX/PT

[USCG RS]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

BUT the official forecast says 4-6 for both east and west Union County - ,most people don't have access to the discussion only the official forecast since to get the discussion you have to know where to get it

This is true, but the discussion gives us a glimpse into the issuing forecasts reasoning and thinking and it specifically mentions that W Bergen is upgraded and E Bergen is not. 

Perhaps there was a glitch or mistake in W Bergen and it should show 4-8 or perhaps the forecasting office utilized some discretion as, yes, 4-6 is WWA criteria as the average is below the 6 inch threshold required.

That withstanding, 4-6 vs 4-7/8 makes very little difference and is essentially semantics and the vast majority of persons do not know the difference between a WWA and a WSW.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I expect generally 3-6" region-wide with a few 7" amounts possible north and west and parts of eastern LI/South shore closer to 2".

WX/PT

7 " caused by higher ratio's ? even though guidance is moving the system further south and east ? I suspect the jackpot zones will be the zones in eastern most northern NJ which only has advisories now

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

This is true, but the discussion gives us a glimpse into the issuing forecasts reasoning and thinking and it specifically mentions that W Bergen is upgraded and E Bergen is not. 

Perhaps there was a glitch or mistake in W Bergen and it should show 4-8 or perhaps the forecasting office utilized some discretion as, yes, 4-6 is WWA criteria as the average is below the 6 inch threshold required.

That withstanding, 4-6 vs 4-7/8 makes very little difference and is essentially semantics and the vast majority of persons do not know the difference between a WWA and a WSW.

I think advisories are taken less seriously then warnings

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think advisories are taken less seriously then warnings

I could see that.

[NEG NAO]

anyone else notice the NAM and other guidance shows precip mostly snow in West VA and Kentucky BUT the radars and surface reports have little or nothing ? also the southeast precip on radar is slightly further south and east then modeled need the western areas to start developing NOW CASTING TIME HAS BEGUN !  All the ingredients have to come together properly in this type of setup

[Yaz]

BufKIT for MMU 0z NAM (hourly from right to left...with blue as SNOW..total is 5.2"....snow ratio is the thin light blue line....2 meter temp (thin red line) and DP (thin green line); when green becomes bright green is when RH exceeds 90%.

[RU848789]

Just for giggles, given the increase in snowfall for many models, as well as the broader coverage with more snow and less rain from 95 SE to the coast (at least north of Toms River), I'm expecting the NWS to continue increasing snowfall totals. I'd go for 4-6" within 10-20 miles of 95 from Philly to NYC and for Monmouth County N of 195, with 2-4" for almost all of the rest of NJ, except maybe 1-2" for most of Cape May County and the NJ coast up to LBI. I would also keep the 6-8"+ area NW of 95, but probably move the 6" line SE 10-15 miles to maybe West Chester to New Hope to White Plains and I would have all of LI at 4-6", except eastern Suffolk at 3-4".

My guess is that this would mean warnings for the 95-adjacent counties from Philly/SNJ up through NYC and probably advisories for Mommouth, Ocean, SE Burlco and maybe Cumberland, but not Atlantic/Cape May; guessing LI might be 4-6" advisories but not warnings, but close call (like for Middlesex/Mercer, where warning criterion is 6" vs. 4" for counties south of 276/195, so the warnings would make sense for SEPA/SNJ.  Been wrong before on guessing NWS moves before, but I find it fun to guess. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Just for giggles, given the increase in snowfall for many models, as well as the broader coverage with more snow and less rain from 95 SE to the coast (at least north of Toms River), I'm expecting the NWS to continue increasing snowfall totals. I'd go for 4-6" within 10-20 miles of 95 from Philly to NYC and for Monmouth County N of 195, with 2-4" for almost all of the rest of NJ, except maybe 1-2" for most of Cape May County and the NJ coast up to LBI. I would also keep the 6-8"+ area NW of 95, but probably move the 6" line SE 10-15 miles to maybe West Chester to New Hope to White Plains and I would have all of LI at 4-6", except eastern Suffolk at 3-4".

My guess is that this would mean warnings for the 95-adjacent counties from Philly/SNJ up through NYC and probably advisories for Mommouth, Ocean, SE Burlco and maybe Cumberland, but not Atlantic/Cape May; guessing LI might be 4-6" advisories but not warnings, but close call (like for Middlesex/Mercer, where warning criterion is 6" vs. 4" for counties south of 276/195, so the warnings would make sense for SEPA/SNJ.  Been wrong before on guessing NWS moves before, but I find it fun to guess. 

looking at the radars right now - the western side of this setup modeled in west VA and Kentucky is not developing - one would not think a storm is less then 12 hours away from start time here.......

[MGorse]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Just for giggles, given the increase in snowfall for many models, as well as the broader coverage with more snow and less rain from 95 SE to the coast (at least north of Toms River), I'm expecting the NWS to continue increasing snowfall totals. I'd go for 4-6" within 10-20 miles of 95 from Philly to NYC and for Monmouth County N of 195, with 2-4" for almost all of the rest of NJ, except maybe 1-2" for most of Cape May County and the NJ coast up to LBI. I would also keep the 6-8"+ area NW of 95, but probably move the 6" line SE 10-15 miles to maybe West Chester to New Hope to White Plains and I would have all of LI at 4-6", except eastern Suffolk at 3-4".

My guess is that this would mean warnings for the 95-adjacent counties from Philly/SNJ up through NYC and probably advisories for Mommouth, Ocean, SE Burlco and maybe Cumberland, but not Atlantic/Cape May; guessing LI might be 4-6" advisories but not warnings, but close call (like for Middlesex/Mercer, where warning criterion is 6" vs. 4" for counties south of 276/195, so the warnings would make sense for SEPA/SNJ.  Been wrong before on guessing NWS moves before, but I find it fun to guess. 

Warning criteria for that area is 5 inches (that was changed from 4 inches several years ago).

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Warning criteria for that area is 5 inches (that was changed from 4 inches several years ago).

are you comparing whats modeled VS. actual radar trends and surface reports south of here ?

[RU848789]

15 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Warning criteria for that area is 5 inches (that was changed from 4 inches several years ago).

That's how you know I'm old, lol, thanks...

[Yaz]

22 minutes ago, Yaz said:

BufKIT for MMU 0z NAM (hourly from right to left...with blue as SNOW..total is 5.2"....snow ratio is the thin light blue line....2 meter temp (thin red line) and DP (thin green line); when green becomes bright green is when RH exceeds 90%.

Below map shows Max  snow growth region between purple lines where RH > 70% (temps between -12C and -18C).....which leads me to believe that snow rate should pickup around 7:00 pm in Morristown, assuming NAM is correct.(?)

[Yaz]

Let me know if anybody wants to learn how to use BUFKIT. It is a free software program that interprets American model output (i.e. GFS, NAM, et al) that is also freely available.

[weathermedic]

Early morning AFD out of OKX discussing the colder model consensus and slightly more snow amounts for coastal areas:

 

A developing low pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic today
will gradually intensify this afternoon and slide south of the
area resulting in widespread snowfall for the area. The latest
guidance has come into better agreement with a SE trend of the
center of the low pressure system as it passes to the south.
This overall results in a cooler and snowier system for the
coast.

Light snow is expected to gradually move into the area early
this afternoon from the SW. It remains possible that coastal
areas at least initially mix with rain. As the intensity of the
precipitation increases with the low strengthening and passing
to the south, dynamic cooling should allow for any low level
warmer air to cool to freezing resulting in any mix of
rain/snow to become all snow. Snow becomes moderate to locally
heavy at times over the CWA into the late afternoon. Heavier
snow will be focused along any mesoscale banding on the NW side
of the cyclone, but will be hard to pinpoint until it develops.
Any location that is able to be under a heavier snow band may
overperform regarding snowfall totals. The snow gradually
dissipates from SW to NE tonight as the low pulls to the
northeast of the area. Most of the accumulating snowfall should
be done by midnight with only residual snow showers possible
over Eastern CT.

Snowfall totals are expected to be 6-8 inches for the warning
areas, which has been expanded to include Northern New London
County in CT and Eastern Bergen County in NJ. Snowfall totals
have been slightly increased along the entire coastal CWA. The
NYC metro will likely see anywhere from 4-6 inches, with Long
Island and coastal CT expecting 3-5 inches. It remains very
possible that any coastal area in the advisory see locally up to
6 inches of snow, and/or a subsequent upgrade to a warning,
especially if the 12Z guidance continues a SE trend in the low
track. This will also likely depend on how much initial mixing
of rain occurs and the development of any heavy snow banding.

[Noteaster101]

Another weak storm barely given 1 to 3 inches region wide! Enough is enough with these nonsense weak storms, we are overdue for a major nor’easter!!

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Unfortunately, one our neighbors, has a seasonal snow plow business.  He spreads rock salt on the road, and sometimes pile of it, that stays there for weeks and gets into all the neighborhood dogs'  paws, not to mention wedged in between our boot soles.  Then creates a salt dust cloud, great for the cars for weeks...

Yeah, thats why I see more and more people with those little booties for their dogs.