WestBabylonWeather Posted Sunday at 02:19 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:19 AM We’re gonna lock those Long Island totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM Trends are not my friend but I’ll happily take 3-4” and be happy for those who see more. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM Seems like this is going to start a bit later more like 3-4pm instead of noon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted Sunday at 02:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:27 AM 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Seems like this is going to start a bit later more like 3-4pm instead of noon It's a great development if most falls after sunset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 02:30 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:30 AM 1 minute ago, mob1 said: It's a great development if most falls after sunset Yeah after 4 it really picks up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted Sunday at 02:35 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:35 AM I’m just happy that I took the under for the Lions/Skins game 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Sunday at 02:39 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:39 AM Amazing consensus at 0Z for the meso/hi-res models I've seen for at least the Philly-NJ-NYC region...NWS is likely going to raise accumulations SE of 95 based on these unless we see something odd with the globals... The NAM shows a general 4-6" event for literally everyone except 2-4" for Cape May and 6-8" for NYC and NE-ward The NAM 3km (high res) shows a general 3-6" even everywhere except for SENJ south of Toms River, which get 1-3". The HRRR shows a 4-6" event for almost everyone, except 2-4" for SENJ south of Toms River The RAP shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 2-4" for AC to Cape May. The HRW-FV3 (will be the new NAM someday) shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 0-4" for SENJ south of Toms River 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:41 AM 17 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Trends are not my friend but I’ll happily take 3-4” and be happy for those who see more. You'll have better ratios to make up for the lower QPF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Sunday at 02:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:53 AM 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: so after all that Long Island is gonna get more than anybody now? As is tradition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted Sunday at 02:55 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:55 AM 12 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Amazing consensus at 0Z for the meso/hi-res models I've seen for at least the Philly-NJ-NYC region...NWS is likely going to raise accumulations SE of 95 based on these unless we see something odd with the globals... The NAM shows a general 4-6" event for literally everyone except 2-4" for Cape May and 6-8" for NYC and NE-ward The NAM 3km (high res) shows a general 3-6" even everywhere except for SENJ south of Toms River, which get 1-3". The HRRR shows a 4-6" event for almost everyone, except 2-4" for SENJ south of Toms River The RAP shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 2-4" for AC to Cape May. The HRW-FV3 (will be the new NAM someday) shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 0-4" for SENJ south of Toms River Thanks, nice write up. These models are the ones to be focusing on at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted Sunday at 02:58 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:58 AM 34 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Trends are not my friend but I’ll happily take 3-4” and be happy for those who see more. Ratios dude. Baseline of 10-1; but perhaps push to 12-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Sunday at 03:01 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:01 AM 2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Ratios dude. Baseline of 10-1; but perhaps push to 12-1. I’d go 15:1 temps will be crashing into the low 20’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted Sunday at 03:07 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:07 AM 14 minutes ago, Nibor said: As is tradition. That's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Sunday at 03:15 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:15 AM 15 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Ratios dude. Baseline of 10-1; but perhaps push to 12-1. That’s what I’m going off of. Seeing a lot of .35 - .40 QPF so I guess I’m going 10:1 but even at 12:1 that’s 5” so not far off from what I’m saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Sunday at 03:18 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:18 AM 10 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: That's not happening. Don’t worry you’ll get your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Sunday at 03:19 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:19 AM RGEM colder and brings snow out to eastern Suffolk now lol. Welcome to the party! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 03:21 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:21 AM 3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: That’s what I’m going off of. Seeing a lot of .35 - .40 QPF so I guess I’m going 10:1 but even at 12:1 that’s 5” so not far off from what I’m saying. Where you are the snow will stick right away and probably be powdery-although that doesn’t guarantee good ratios because you need good snow growth. There will likely be 1-2 good bands that get set up inland. The QPF IMBY might be higher but my snow will initially be paste and tougher to stack up. I’m still thinking the immediate south shore/east end might have issues getting the snow to accumulate for a while until the N wind drives the cold air down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Sunday at 03:22 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:22 AM Just now, jm1220 said: Where you are the snow will stick right away and probably be powdery-although that doesn’t guarantee good ratios because you need good snow growth. There will likely be 1-2 good bands that get set up inland. The QPF IMBY might be higher but my snow will initially be paste and tougher to stack up. I’m still thinking the immediate south shore/east end might have issues getting the snow to accumulate for a while until the N wind drives the cold air down. I hear ya - hoping for the best for all. Will be nice to be watching football with snow coming down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Sunday at 03:25 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:25 AM 3-6” those 8-10” amounts for western areas aren’t gunna pan out, this thing is booking and every 0z model has cut totals and is sagging SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted Sunday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:27 AM 51 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: I’m just happy that I took the under for the Lions/Skins game Ouch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Sunday at 03:33 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:33 AM 51 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Amazing consensus at 0Z for the meso/hi-res models I've seen for at least the Philly-NJ-NYC region...NWS is likely going to raise accumulations SE of 95 based on these unless we see something odd with the globals... The NAM shows a general 4-6" event for literally everyone except 2-4" for Cape May and 6-8" for NYC and NE-ward The NAM 3km (high res) shows a general 3-6" even everywhere except for SENJ south of Toms River, which get 1-3". The HRRR shows a 4-6" event for almost everyone, except 2-4" for SENJ south of Toms River The RAP shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 2-4" for AC to Cape May. The HRW-FV3 (will be the new NAM someday) shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 0-4" for SENJ south of Toms River Wow, the NWS has already bumped snowfall amounts up a bit along 95 and about 1" cross the board SE of 95 to the coast in NJ and they explain below how this is due to the early 0Z models, as discussed above. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 901 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025 -- Changed Discussion -- Meanwhile near the I-95 corridor, this is where the forecast will be the trickiest in terms of Ptype. With temperatures right around if not just above freezing here as the precip begins, it may actually start as rain before turning over to snow as dynamic and evaporational cooling effects take hold. Then, as the low tracks up the coast through the day, a mix with or change back to rain or sleet may occur in the afternoon for a time before any mixing flips back to snow before ending Sunday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for this area. However, the early signals from the 00Z guidance suite tonight suggests that the amplification will be less than previously anticipated so this would result in a potentially weaker system, leading to more snow further south and east. With this being said, have subtly upped forecast numbers by about an inch or so across the coastal plain early this evening. Considering this, may have to further expand Winter Weather Advisories/Winter Storm Warnings further south and east, but we`ll leave that for the mid-shift to handle in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted Sunday at 03:44 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:44 AM 15 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: 3-6” those 8-10” amounts for western areas aren’t gunna pan out, this thing is booking and every 0z model has cut totals and is sagging SE. Yeah having to rely on ratios isn’t gonna cut it up here. 3-5” looks to be the consensus up here now. LI up into ENE look to potentially cash in on those 6”+ amounts. If it snows in central/eastern Suffolk can almost guarantee we will be on the outside looking in. Seen this movie a few times before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 03:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:45 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 03:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:48 AM GFS looks solid, maybe bumped up amounts a little. Avoid the weenie Kuchera maps. There’ll be places where ratios are above 10-1 but it’s based on temps where the snow growth happen and saturation of the column not just surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 03:49 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:49 AM Gfs now showing strong banding. Interesting to see where they set up. Increased amounts on this run and ended up southeast of 18z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 03:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:53 AM I wonder if Upton will issue winter storm warnings tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Sunday at 03:57 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:57 AM Forgot to post this (from my FB this afternoon): Time for my guesstimate for our house in Metuchen: going with 5.1", which is a bit above the model consensus (and my NWS point-and-click forecast is 4.3"), as I'm riding the Euro AIFS. I don't do storm forecasts, since I'm not a pro and I have no mapping skills. I just comment on other people's forecasts, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Sunday at 04:07 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:07 AM The HREF mean is now 4-6 everywhere with 6-8s N shore of LI and parts of NW NJ the Hudson Valley 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Sunday at 04:07 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:07 AM 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs now showing strong banding. Interesting to see where they set up. Increased amounts on this run and ended up southeast of 18z. Yep, I think we get two distinctive bands with this. One situated on either side of I-95, the other just NW of US-202 and I-287. Bit of a subsidence screw zone in between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Sunday at 04:09 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:09 AM And the CMC's failure is complete... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now