Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[RU848789]

On 1/16/2025 at 6:21 AM, MJO812 said:

6z Euro coming west

Hey - I know you're the Euro AIFS snowfall map guy - have you posted an updated version? Thanks.   I couldn't figure out how to do a search for your posts - used to be easy, maybe they changed how that's done.  

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don were there any snowfall measurements and temp readings and wind measurements taken back then-- maybe from The Battery? I think  their records go further back then Central Park's?

There was a news report that the temperature in New York City slowly rose from near 0° to 10° during the blizzard.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

There was a news report that the temperature in New York City slowly rose from near 0° to 10° during the blizzard.

and the total snowfall was around 1 ft with drifts of 5 ft plus?

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and the total snowfall was around 1 ft with drifts of 5 ft plus?

I don't have any precise accumulations from NYC other than "more than a foot" fell. Washington, DC picked up about 18".

[bluewave]

If you thought all the salt on the roads was bad recently just wait until the 4”+ in many spots freezes solid tomorrow night with rapidly falling temps into the teens. 

[uofmiami]

Just now, bluewave said:

If you thought all the salt on the roads was bad recently just wait until the 4”+ in many spots freezes solid tomorrow night with rapidly falling temps into the teens. 

At least we had some showers today to clear up the residue from this past week.  Start anew tomorrow. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If you thought all the salt on the roads was bad recently just wait until the 4”+ in many spots freezes solid tomorrow night with rapidly falling temps into the teens. 

what happened to back in the day when they used to put down sand instead of salt? Sand is more environmentally friendly than salt is. And that cranberry concoction they use down in the South is even better.

[MJO812]

18z ukie

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

At least we had some showers today to clear up the residue from this past week.  Start anew tomorrow. 

Yeah, there are going to have to heavily treat all the surfaces with the falling temperatures during and after the storm. In recent years the trucks driving on the major roads have kicked up mini dust storms with all the salt at times. But it’s much more preferable to an untreated flash freeze like we got In January 1986. 

[snowman19]

EURO is 3-4 area wide

@psv88 What isn’t true? That’s what the EURO on pivotal weather is showing, . 3-4 inches area wide. I’m not making it up 

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EURO is 3-4 area wide

Getting consensus now toward a 3-5 area wide event with whoever getting the best banding seeing 6-8 maybe 

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EURO is 3-4 area wide

That’s not true. It’s a 3-6” event. Northern areas will be 6” maybe highest elevations 8. This is per Euro btw

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said:

The AI been rock steady 

The AIFS has basically been locked in since 5 days out, with just some slight NW adjustments as the storm approached. Once it starts showing a solution consistently in the mid range it seems pretty deadly.

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Looking like another win for the Euro AI.

Hands down the best performing model for this event, based on memory, so I was curious and made these two GIFs of the surface low placement at 0Z Sunday and the 24 hour precip field through 06Z Monday and the consistency over 8 runs is astonishing and iirc, this consistency goes back 4-5 days.  

 

[RU848789]

Just now, RU848789 said:

Hands down the best performing model for this event, based on memory, so I was curious and made these two GIFs of the surface low placement at 0Z Sunday and the 24 hour precip field through 06Z Monday and the consistency over 8 runs is astonishing and iirc, this consistency goes back 4-5 days.  

 

 

Here's the precip field; of course verification awaits (which is highly likely overall - there are always parts of a forecast that don't work perfectly for every model), but this is impressive

[Allsnow]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18z ukie

Ukie has been locked in for days on this storm 

[EWR757]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

No one is seeing just a cold rain. 

Both PHI and OKX mention the possibility of rain at the start along the coast in their AFDs.

[RU848789]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If you thought all the salt on the roads was bad recently just wait until the 4”+ in many spots freezes solid tomorrow night with rapidly falling temps into the teens. 

Been telling people, especially those who get some mix/slush in their snow pack, to shovel during the event and right after it or else they're going to have a rock solid pack in the morning and yes the salt on the streets will melt some of the snow to make it slushy and that piled up mass will freeze solid wherever the plows leave it - could make tight city streets a nightmare.  

[Allsnow]

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Been telling people, especially those who get some mix/slush in their snow pack, to shovel during the event and right after it or else they're going to have a rock solid pack in the morning and yes the salt on the streets will melt some of the snow to make it slushy and that piled up mass will freeze solid wherever the plows leave it - could make tight city streets a nightmare.  

At least we haven’t had any major ice storms recently which were more common from the 70s into early 90s. The last more significant ones I remember from LB were February 07  and 11. But nothing like the ice storms in Jan 78 and 94. 

[Gravity Wave]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least we haven’t had any major ice storms recently which were more common from the 70s into early 90s. The last more significant ones I remember from LB were February 07  and 11. But nothing like the ice storms in Jan 78 and 94. 

Ice storms seems to have joined Alberta Clippers as weather events that no longer seem to play a major role in our winters. I remember getting 5 inches of sleet topped with a glaze of ZR in December 2008 growing up in Allentown, less than 2 years after the epic Valentines Day ice storm in February 2007 that stranded hundreds of drivers on I-78.

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least we haven’t had any major ice storms recently which were more common from the 70s into early 90s. The last more significant ones I remember from LB were February 07  and 11. But nothing like the ice storms in Jan 78 and 94. 

At the time we were told 94 was a true ice storm, which are not common here, but more so in places like Oklahoma and KS; inches of ice, which I have never seen again. Usually we get a glaze and it melts off later in the day, or it starts as rain and sudden drop in temps causes ice buildup, but nothing like 94. Will be nice to see an event this Sunday/Monday. Maybe it overperforms for a few as last Feb did. We'll see.

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened to back in the day when they used to put down sand instead of salt? Sand is more environmentally friendly than salt is. And that cranberry concoction they use down in the South is even better.

Beat juice snd salt is the shiznit. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

26 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

At the time we were told 94 was a true ice storm, which are not common here, but more so in places like Oklahoma and KS; inches of ice, which I have never seen again. Usually we get a glaze and it melts off later in the day, or it starts as rain and sudden drop in temps causes ice buildup, but nothing like 94. Will be nice to see an event this Sunday/Monday. Maybe it overperforms for a few as last Feb did. We'll see.

My brother and I were playing ice hockey in queens in the courtyards between the row houses. That was insane.  

[jm1220]

Certainly doesn’t feel like we’re about to get snow. Foggy and 42. 

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Certainly doesn’t feel like we’re about to get snow. Foggy and 42. 

Yeah. Occasionally I'll be outside with friends and say, "It smells like it's about to snow." This is usually followed by a strange look but then they'll usually agree. Don't know what it is.

[WestBabylonWeather]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Certainly doesn’t feel like we’re about to get snow. Foggy and 42. 

We’ve had 65 degree days leading up to a snow storm. All good 

[Dark Star]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

I fully explained it in the other thread if you go back and read the posts. 

You showed some temperature maps.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

We’ve had 65 degree days leading up to a snow storm. All good 

Hopefully we clear out so we drop as much as we can but yeah we’re on track. 

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Certainly doesn’t feel like we’re about to get snow. Foggy and 42. 

These events always are this way.  The post MetLife stadium Super Bowl storm in 2014 I think was mid or high 40s before and I know the April event maybe 5-6 years ago was too