Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[wishcast_hater]

Under a WSW 6”-9”.


.

[cleetussnow]

Just got that notification wsw 5 to 7.  Noice.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, wxman said:

It ends up ok.   What its doing at 21z I have no idea.  If NAM is right it's going to be bone dry until later in the afternoon tomorrow.

Yeah it doesn't start until after 4 and is done before 10. 3knam is well under way by 4pm but has lower amounts 

[TriPol]

What's the analog (if any) for this storm?

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Includes all of Suffolk too. Haven’t seen such a broad advisory in a while 

How much did you get in the storm last February that dropped 6.2 inches at JFK? There was a narrow swath of heavy snow but I think it covered at least half of Long Island.

[wxman]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wasn’t that always the forecast for a late afternoon start? 

Nam is a few hours slower compared to HRRR.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, TriPol said:

What's the analog (if any) for this storm?

January 1987

[Poker2015]

42 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wow that's bullish

That guy is always bullish, been busting alot the past few years I've been checking out his stuff

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

18 minutes ago, wxman said:

18Z NAM looks dreadful so far.

Looks okay to me. What exactly is dreadful?

[Allsnow]

 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What's the analog (if any) for this storm?

Snow storm, January 11-12, 2011 - Storm Summary a fast moving storm also

[LVblizzard]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Eagles game is gonna be nuts. Just like the 2013 snow bowl where Shady McCoy ran all over the Lions.

[Allsnow]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

Eagles game is gonna be nuts. Just like the 2013 snow bowl where Shady McCoy ran all over the Lions.

The weather is really going to help the eagles imo 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

January 1987

That was a beast, but it was a weekday and hit at the worst possible time, around 10 am when everyone was at work already, after several mild snowless winters, and in a time when the forecasting was not apocalyptic. Few people had four wheel drive or snow tires, and the SUV had not been invented yet. Minivans were this new odd thing. In short,  a lot of people, like me, had rear wheel drive dinosaurs with bad traction, and the snow came in like a white wall. Offices panicked and let everyone leave by noon, creating a complete snag on the interstates. People abandoned cars on the GSP and the state police towed them away. In the end it was about a foot or less in a short period and was chaos. It would be the last significant storm in CNJ until 1993.

[winterwarlock]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

3k! 
 

 

its not really all that impressive

 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Snow storm, January 11-12, 2011 - Storm Summary a fast moving storm also

That was almost a HECS, almost 20 inches. I don't think this is. It would be a storm for the ages if it hadn't followed Boxing Day a few weeks prior.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

That was a beast, but it was a weekday and hit at the worst possible time, around 10 am when everyone was at work already, after several mild snowless winters, and in a time when the forecasting was not apocalyptic. Few people had four wheel drive or snow tires, and the SUV had not been invented yet. Minivans were this new odd thing. In short,  a lot of people, like me, had rear wheel drive dinosaurs with bad traction, and the snow came in like a white wall. Offices panicked and let everyone leave by noon, creating a complete snag on the interstates. People abandoned cars on the GSP and the state police towed them away. In the end it was about a foot or less in a short period and was chaos. It would be the last significant storm in CNJ until 1993.

How long did it snow for? I love daytime snowstorms.

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

January 1987

 

Yeah, we wish.  2/2-3/85 is now the closest match I see

[LibertyBell]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

That was almost a HECS, almost 20 inches. I don't think this is. It would be a storm for the ages if it hadn't followed Boxing Day a few weeks prior.

wait you had almost 20 inches in that storm? I thought it was 20 inches only for central Long Island and up to New England.  We got 6-9 inches here.

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

its not really all that impressive

 

It satisfies the whole subforum with a plowable snow. Everybody wins. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Yeah, we wish.  2/2-3/85 is now the closest match I see

84-85 had two storms like this, both were around 4-5 inches weren't they?

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

How long did it snow for? I love daytime snowstorms.

10am-5pm pretty much, dry slotted after that.  JFK E flipped to sleet or rain briefly maybe the last 1-2 hours but LGA/EWR never did

[NEG NAO]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Yeah, we wish.  2/2-3/85 is now the closest match I see

any maps or data ?

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

10am-5pm pretty much, dry slotted after that.  JFK E flipped to sleet or rain briefly maybe the last 1-2 hours but LGA/EWR never did

dry slots are unpredictable till they happen - just like the central NJ banding during last Feb 16 -17 storm last year

[steve392]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

That was almost a HECS, almost 20 inches. I don't think this is. It would be a storm for the ages if it hadn't followed Boxing Day a few weeks prior.

Had over 24 inches in Mahwah that storm.  Was easily comparable to the boxing day blizzard minus the winds.  Nobody in our OEM believed me that we were going to get hit hard.

[wdrag]

Hi!

Looks like a brief period of 2"/hr snowfall rates near the green circles, se NYS near 6P,  and a period of general 1"/hr snowfall rates 3P-9P along and west of I95. Please see attached WPC HREF snowband members, and the HREF green 6" swath from the 12z/18 cycle (old news?) and the general NWS snowfall prediction as available from their databases at 3PM,  plus their odds on various thresholds at CP

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

10am-5pm pretty much, dry slotted after that.  JFK E flipped to sleet or rain briefly maybe the last 1-2 hours but LGA/EWR never did

I remember this-- it was supposed to change to rain here but it never did, just drizzle at the end, 7 inches of snow at JFK? For some reason that number sounds about right.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How long did it snow for? I love daytime snowstorms.

Now by memory, it seemed like it was over by evening. Mostly because I spent several hours of daylight just following the tailights of the car in front of me, because I could not see a thing in that heavy snow.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Had over 24 inches in Mahwah that storm.  Was easily comparable to the boxing day blizzard minus the winds.  Nobody in our OEM believed me that we were going to get hit hard.

you guys are confusing the late January storm with the one he's talking about which happened earlier in the month.  The one he's referencing developed a little too late for us to get historic amounts, though it was still major with 6-9 inches. Central Long Island got close to 20 inches, being closer to the low bombing near Montauk.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

any maps or data ?

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2025011812&map=thbCOOP72

Lots of 5-7s just inland, this one has more a surface reflection vs an anafrontal appearance so totals may be bigger.  

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0202.php