Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sorry they're not invited

you know you’re desperate when these models get mentioned.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

you know you’re desperate when these models get mentioned.

Yet they have been the most consistent all week 

[psv88]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Somehow Port Jeff will jackpot like always.

Wonder if William/Pamela is still out there 

[TJW014]

LOL accidentally uploaded the wrong map.

Map update: Not too much has changed aside from bumping up totals slightly for pretty much everyone. Looks to be a decent event for 98% of us. I still think the coast mixes initially, but otherwise I'm pretty confident we see an all-snow event for I-95 and NYC. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

The storm and cold postponed my trip to dc Sunday morn..they moved everything inside also which blows. But ill be home tracking this baby atleast 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Elevation and good geography. Not a coincidence 

The 200 feet really helps in these marginal setups, which it won’t be through the whole event but the degree or two could mean another 1-2”. Other than that they’re in a good place to cash in when the offshore storms really get going with banding as well. Where I am is way better for snow than where I used to live on the south shore barrier islands but best is just east of me generally. 

As for this I’m confident in calling this a 4-6” event across the board which is a huge win. Some lucky places from banding or more QPF could get 7. Hopefully we get more opportunities as we end Jan and go into Feb. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, jm1220 said:

The 200 feet really helps in these marginal setups, which it won’t be through the whole event but the degree or two could mean another 1-2”. Other than that they’re in a good place to cash in when the offshore storms really get going with banding as well. Where I am is way better for snow than where I used to live on the south shore barrier islands but best is just east of me generally. 

As for this I’m confident in calling this a 4-6” event across the board which is a huge win. Some lucky places from banding or more QPF could get 7. Hopefully we get more opportunities as we end Jan and go into Feb. 

Some of those bands are going to be intense,esp when deepening happens fast. No model can predict the placement of those.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 200 feet really helps in these marginal setups, which it won’t be through the whole event but the degree or two could mean another 1-2”. Other than that they’re in a good place to cash in when the offshore storms really get going with banding as well. Where I am is way better for snow than where I used to live on the south shore barrier islands but best is just east of me generally. 

As for this I’m confident in calling this a 4-6” event across the board which is a huge win. Some lucky places from banding or more QPF could get 7. Hopefully we get more opportunities as we end Jan and go into Feb. 

For reference:

[snywx]

48 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

LOL accidentally uploaded the wrong map.

Map update: Not too much has changed aside from bumping up totals slightly for pretty much everyone. Looks to be a decent event for 98% of us. I still think the coast mixes initially, but otherwise I'm pretty confident we see an all-snow event for I-95 and NYC. 

Good map.. not much has really changed other than areas a bit further east getting in on advisory level snows. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not really sure what people are looking at right now on twitter, saying the EURO “caved”. It caved how exactly? It had 2-4 area wide yesterday at 12z, now it has 3-5/3-6 area wide. Nothing but inconsequential noise. No substantial difference. Windshield wiper effect. It’s actually been extremely consistent and it never turned us to rain at any point

Bull. Go look back a few days ago. It was much farther east, weaker, and giving most 2-3 inches. It made a westward shift and bumped precip the last 2 runs. 

[L.I.Pete]

Somehow Port Jeff will jackpot like always.

Works for me.


.

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Bull. Go look back a few days ago. It was much farther east, weaker, and giving most 2-3 inches. It made a westward shift and bumped precip the last 2 runs. 

He is in another dimension. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

39 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

LOL accidentally uploaded the wrong map.

Map update: Not too much has changed aside from bumping up totals slightly for pretty much everyone. Looks to be a decent event for 98% of us. I still think the coast mixes initially, but otherwise I'm pretty confident we see an all-snow event for I-95 and NYC. 

This looks about right. I'm calling it 2-6".

WX/PT

[Rjay]

Let's enjoy a nice snowfall guys.  Everyone has made their points on which models were good or bad. The storm hasn't even happened yet. Let's revisit it after the storm.  

 

[Rjay]

46 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

LOL accidentally uploaded the wrong map.

Map update: Not too much has changed aside from bumping up totals slightly for pretty much everyone. Looks to be a decent event for 98% of us. I still think the coast mixes initially, but otherwise I'm pretty confident we see an all-snow event for I-95 and NYC. 

This is a good map

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 200 feet really helps in these marginal setups, which it won’t be through the whole event but the degree or two could mean another 1-2”. Other than that they’re in a good place to cash in when the offshore storms really get going with banding as well. Where I am is way better for snow than where I used to live on the south shore barrier islands but best is just east of me generally. 

As for this I’m confident in calling this a 4-6” event across the board which is a huge win. Some lucky places from banding or more QPF could get 7. Hopefully we get more opportunities as we end Jan and go into Feb. 

The SPC HREF likes your area of Nassau out to NW Suffolk the best. Very similar to growing up in LB from the 70s to 90s. But in recent decades the South Shore has scored more wins than in the old days. 

 

 

[JetsPens87]

48 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

LOL accidentally uploaded the wrong map.

Map update: Not too much has changed aside from bumping up totals slightly for pretty much everyone. Looks to be a decent event for 98% of us. I still think the coast mixes initially, but otherwise I'm pretty confident we see an all-snow event for I-95 and NYC. 

This is solid and in line with my thinking though 12z suite gives higher confidence in higher ceiling along 95 and SE.

I like the fresh bleed of true arctic air (notably the coldest in years) approaching in conjunction with a potent developing coastal.

850 fronto lines CNJ NWNJ 700 fronto lines NWNJ Poconos. Overlap area of those to from CNJ to NWNJ makes for 6 plus potential.

[Rjay]

39 minutes ago, snywx said:

Good map.. not much has really changed other than areas a bit further east getting in on advisory level snows. 

I think you're good for 6-10"

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said:

This is solid and in line with my thinking though 12z suite gives higher confidence in higher ceiling along 95 and SE.

I like the fresh bleed of true arctic air (notably the coldest in years) approaching in conjunction with a potent developing coastal.

850 fronto lines CNJ NWNJ 700 fronto lines NWNJ Poconos. Overlap area of those to from CNJ to NWNJ makes for 6 plus potential.

Good stuff.  Thanks for this post. 

[Allsnow]

59 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 200 feet really helps in these marginal setups, which it won’t be through the whole event but the degree or two could mean another 1-2”. Other than that they’re in a good place to cash in when the offshore storms really get going with banding as well. Where I am is way better for snow than where I used to live on the south shore barrier islands but best is just east of me generally. 

As for this I’m confident in calling this a 4-6” event across the board which is a huge win. Some lucky places from banding or more QPF could get 7. Hopefully we get more opportunities as we end Jan and go into Feb. 

think about where we were yesterday? 
 

3-6 inch snowstorm coming with artic air mid week 

[forkyfork]

looks like a flash freeze for the borderline areas as the low pulls away

[weathermedic]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looks like a flash freeze for the borderline areas as the low pulls away

Going to be a layer of ice under the snow in the areas where it starts off as rain or a mix.

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr looks nice. Still going at midnight 

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr looks nice. Still going at midnight 

Yep further southeast 

[Stormlover74]

[BoulderWX]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

HRRR looking reasonable IMO

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Wonder if William/Pamela is still out there 

I think they moved out west years ago.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Wow that's bullish

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Bullish, nice!

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: