BoulderWX Posted Saturday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:30 PM 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: I'm playing it more conservative than most around my area. Still going with 4-6". There is still model uncertainty and this is going to be a fast mover. Dynamics are good but not off the charts. I'm comfortable with 4-6" around here. We'll see how it plays out. I ride with you on the 4-6 if I remember correctly your location. I would be very happy with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Saturday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:30 PM Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Saturday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:31 PM Euro probably 4-7" areawide. East of the city has the most QPF but ratios might make the amounts areawide similar since east of the city starts as wet snow. Very nice run and beefed up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Saturday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:32 PM Good to see the Euro increase the precip amounts a little. Good chance we get 4 to 5 here. I'll go with a guess of 4.5" for my location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Euro probably 4-7" areawide. East of the city has the most QPF but ratios might make the amounts areawide similar since east of the city starts as wet snow. Very nice run and beefed up. Nice cold press during the storm for coastal areas. Love to see it as opposed to the dreaded SWFES where we end with slop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Saturday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:34 PM Just now, psv88 said: Nice cold press during the storm for coastal areas. Love to see it as opposed to the dreaded SWFES where we end with slop It'll be good to have some paste to start out so the snow doesn't all blow away during the week. It'll be a tundra next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It'll be good to have some paste to start out so the snow doesn't all blow away during the week. It'll be a tundra next week. Northwest Suffolk looks good for a solid high end advisory event now. Generally 4-6” snowfall looks likely from your area out to Smithtown north of LIE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Saturday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:38 PM 17 minutes ago, psv88 said: That was a 7 day forecast! We are talking day 5 or less. Stop. Even 7 days out it showed the potential for a light even area wide, which generally is correct Again, the Euro has been the most suppressed with this event out of all the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Just now, bluewave said: Again, the Euro has been the most suppressed with this event out of all the guidance. It’s also the only model which has been consistent with snow for the city and the coast. I’ll leave it there. You can spin it however you want, but from a SNOW standpoint it was insistent that the entire area will see snow. I really don’t give a shit if its SLP placement was suppressed. 99.999% of the population could care less. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Euro probably 4-7" areawide. East of the city has the most QPF but ratios might make the amounts areawide similar since east of the city starts as wet snow. Very nice run and beefed up. we might actually get a winter storm warning out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:42 PM Just now, psv88 said: It’s also the only model which has been consistent with snow for the city and the coast. I’ll leave it there. You can spin it however you want, but from a SNOW standpoint it was insistent that the entire area will see snow. I really don’t give a shit if its SLP placement was suppressed. 99.999% of the population could care less. even snowman agreed with this, the Euro has been the most consistent model with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Saturday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:42 PM 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: ECMWF is a really nice hit. 3-6" area wide Not really sure what people are looking at right now on twitter, saying the EURO “caved”. It caved how exactly? It had 2-4 area wide yesterday at 12z, now it has 3-5/3-6 area wide. Nothing but inconsequential noise. No substantial difference. Windshield wiper effect. It’s actually been extremely consistent and it never turned us to rain at any point 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Saturday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:42 PM Damn I've been up since 545 tracking this But its not an addiction or anythingYou can quit anytime you want. Easy peasy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It'll be good to have some paste to start out so the snow doesn't all blow away during the week. It'll be a tundra next week. it's going to be very reminiscent of February 2015 next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM Just now, snowman19 said: Not really sure what people are looking at right now on twitter, saying the EURO “caved”. It caved how exactly? It had 2-4 area wide yesterday at 12z, now it has 3-5/3-6 area wide. Nothing but inconsequential noise. No substantial difference. Windshield wiper effect. It’s actually been extremely consistent and it never turned us to rain at any point Correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Not really sure what people are looking at right now on twitter, saying the EURO “caved”. It caved how exactly? It had 2-4 area wide yesterday at 12z, now it has 3-5/3-6 area wide. Nothing but inconsequential noise. No substantial difference. Windshield wiper effect. It’s actually been extremely consistent and it never turned us to rain at any point lol see the post right above yours =\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Saturday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:44 PM 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Not really sure what people are looking at right now on twitter, saying the EURO “caved”. It caved how exactly? It had 2-4 area wide yesterday at 12z, now it has 3-5/3-6 area wide. Nothing but inconsequential noise. No substantial difference. Windshield wiper effect. It’s actually been extremely consistent and it never turned us to rain at any point to be fair, it was very washed out a couple of days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Saturday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:44 PM 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Again, the Euro has been the most suppressed with this event out of all the guidance. Btw you still haven’t explained to @Dark Starhow the warm Great Lakes only impact night time temperatures but not day time temperatures. I was curious about that as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Saturday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:46 PM 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: Northwest Suffolk looks good for a solid high end advisory event now. Generally 4-6” snowfall looks likely from your area out to Smithtown north of LIE Somehow Port Jeff will jackpot like always. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM 5 minutes ago, North and West said: You can quit anytime you want. Easy peasy. . I'll probably crash tomorrow during the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Saturday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:49 PM 1 minute ago, psv88 said: It’s also the only model which has been consistent with snow for the city and the coast. I’ll leave it there. You can spin it however you want, but from a SNOW standpoint it was insistent that the entire area will see snow. I really don’t give a shit if its SLP placement was suppressed. 99.999% of the population could care less. Again, It was originally showing next to nothing for most of the area since it was originally suppressed to the south. So now that it’s coming late to the party doesn’t make it consistent. Still several pieces of guidance further west than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:49 PM 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Somehow Port Jeff will jackpot like always. or somewhere between there and Mt Sinai, they have some elevation there. It's always between Port Jeff and Rocky Point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM Add the 12z jma(japan) and 12 z nogaps(navy) models to the party. The icon also brings the goods.. overall looking good guys!..for a model that gets barely mentioned,the icon has been pretty consistent for the last couple of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: or somewhere between there and Mt Sinai, they have some elevation there. It's always between Port Jeff and Rocky Point Elevation and good geography. Not a coincidence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM 24 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: I ride with you on the 4-6 if I remember correctly your location. I would be very happy with that. I would be happy with the 4-6 for sure especially since unlike most of the events so far this season this one will stick around for a solid week. Most other events this season were either all gone in 48 hours or better than 50% gone in 48 hours. This is going to stick around with a solid snow pack for a while and will greatly aid in radiational cooling Tuesday and Wednesday night. Not a KU event by any means but a good old fashioned cold near warning criteria snow event for a lot of places. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:52 PM Just now, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Add the 12z jma(japan) and 12 z nogaps(navy) models to the party. The icon also brings the goods.. overall looking good guys!. Sorry they're not invited 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Saturday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:53 PM 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: Elevation and good geography. Not a coincidence they also averaged the most snow during the peak period of Long Island snow between 02-03 and 15-16, averaging close to 35 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted Saturday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:54 PM 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Sorry they're not invited Whats the crazy part is the jma and icon have been pretty darn consistent all week. The globals need some upgrading tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Saturday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:54 PM 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: Btw you still haven’t explained to @Dark Starhow the warm Great Lakes only impact night time temperatures but not day time temperatures. I was curious about that as well. I fully explained it in the other thread if you go back and read the posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Saturday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:56 PM really nice trend to sharpen the vort on the EPS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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