Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[BxEngine]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Tough for @Rjaybut I still think he gets 3-4”. 

Ill sacrifice all of rjays snow if everyone else gets 3+. Im a nice guy.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Take a screenshot of it then you might be able to post it

It looked pretty angry.....

 

I resized it from 16 MP down to 2 MP and that was enough.

 

 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

Ill sacrifice all of rjays snow if everyone else gets 3+. Im a nice guy.

Agreed. His fault for moving to Bermuda 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Every new East Coast event starts a new record. Since different models do better or worse depending on the storm. Each storm can have one model which does better than others. That being said, it’s just one piece of guidance that gets factored in. Unfortunately, those general model skill scores usually don’t hold for East Coast storms. 

Why doesn't Upton or Brookhaven or some other advanced scientific center create a model that's only for east coast storms? They are important enough that it's well worth it.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sure but for any particular storm we can see which models have been consistent and look back at other storms and see that as well. Euro has been locked in and the models trended towards it. Same thing happened last week. 

The Euro has been the SE outlier on this event further east than the GEM, GFS and several mesos. Notice how every model has been NW of the Euro and EPS. The 12z CMC is still closer to the coast. 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has been the SE outlier on this event further east than the GEM, GFS. Notice how every model has been NW of the Euro and EPS. The 12 CMC is still closer to the coast. 

Dude the GFS and RGEM were complete rainstorms on the island for days. Also, the Ukie has always been very close to the euro. The NAM is actually southeast of the euro at this point and was never amped up. 
 

the Canadian models have been awful. 
 

I am not sure how anyone can look at this as anything else than a euro win

[HeadInTheClouds]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sure but for any particular storm we can see which models have been consistent and look back at other storms and see that as well. Euro has been locked in and the models trended towards it. Same thing happened last week. 

Don't know what models you are looking at but the Euro has been east and weaker and had a significant move west at 06z. The consensus seems to be a low inside the BM and south of LI. The Euro op has shown none of that. It was out there with the nam. 

[psv88]

Man some of you are either blind or delusional. Maybe because you aren’t following what the models have showed for the coastal areas as much. 
 

you even posted the models that showed snow v no snow for the coast. Which models show no snow now? None…those models all caved and now show snow. This isn’t hard 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Don't know what models you are looking at but the Euro has been east and weaker and had a significant move west at 06z. The consensus seems to be a low inside the BM and south of LI. The Euro op has shown none of that. It was out there with the nam. 

Go back and look at the model trends. See which showed snow V no snow for city and coast and then circle back. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Dude the GFS and RGEM were complete rainstorms on the island for days. Also, the Ukie has always been very close to the euro. The NAM is actually southeast of the euro at this point and was never amped up. 
 

the Canadian models have been awful. 
 

I am not sure how anyone can look at this as anything else than a euro win

The Canadian models have not been awful. They have just been slightly further west than where things look to be headed. The Euro has been east and weaker and has been correcting west and bumped up precip. Again, I don't know what you are looking at. 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Dude the GFS and RGEM were complete rainstorms on the island for days. Also, the Ukie has always been very close to the euro. The NAM is actually southeast of the euro at this point and was never amped up. 
 

the Canadian models have been awful. 
 

I am not sure how anyone can look at this as anything else than a euro win

The GFS originally had a fish storm and now has come back to the west. When we evaluate storm tracks nobody is taking P-Types from 5 days out or longer verbatim. The Euro and EPS has been consistently to the east side of the model envelope. So if anything the GFS moved towards the CMC. The CMC can shift another 30-40 miles east and still end up closer in track than the Euro original had.
 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It looked pretty angry.....

 

I resized it from 16 MP down to 2 MP and that was enough.

 

 

Cooper's Hawk I think.

It was too large to be a Sharp Shinned Hawk.  It was about the size of a crow.

 

https://academy.allaboutbirds.org/raptor-id/?utm_campaign=bird academy general&utm_source=AABinPage&utm_medium=SlideIn&utm_term=Hawks&utm_content=Hawk ID

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

The Canadian models have not been awful. They have just been slightly further west than where things look to be headed. The Euro has been east and weaker and has been correcting west and bumped up precip. Again, I don't know what you are looking at. 

150 miles west 48 hours prior to start time isn't "slightly" west

[TriPol]

All we need is the 12z EURO to show a blizzard and the storm will be complete.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, psv88 said:

Go back and look at the model trends. See which showed snow V no snow for city and coast and then circle back. 

You do the same. I said the RGem shifted east and the euro shifted west. The consensus seems to be a low inside the BM with more precip than either the euro op or nam have showed. The Euro and EPS had a significant shift west at 06z. 

[MJO812]

Rap

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Rap

it's a wrap!

[TWCCraig]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Why doesn't Upton or Brookhaven or some other advanced scientific center create a model that's only for east coast storms? They are important enough that it's well worth it.

I remember Stony Brook's MM5! Though it's more for storm surge forecasting

Expecting 2-4" here on the south shore

[wxman]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Go back and look at the model trends. See which showed snow V no snow for city and coast and then circle back. 

It's not only about snow.  On that score you are correct. But in terms of placement the RGEM has been as or perhaps more consistent than the Euro.  But the relatively small southeast ticks have resulted in a likely snowier outcome.  

[snywx]

30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Really nothing has changed since yesterday except that totals have gone up pretty much everywhere except the far East end.

This is true.. still expecting 6-10” here. 3-6” I think is a good call for the city-eastward with highest amounts on the coast being concentrated in and around the 5 Boros

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

150 miles west 48 hours prior to start time isn't "slightly" west

The CMC has not shifted 150 miles east. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

I remember Stony Brook's MM5!

Expecting 2-4" here on the south shore

I do too!  I wonder if it was retired?

Same range here, 2-4

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS shifted SE with the snowfall axis from 06z pretty notably

[psv88]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

The CMC has not shifted 150 miles east. 

Did you see the most recent RGEM move? Last run it gave the city no snow at all. It has been terrible. Give it a rest

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

I remember Stony Brook's MM5!

Expecting 2-4" here on the south shore

That was a great model! 

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, wxman said:

It's not only about snow.  On that score you are correct. But in terms of placement the RGEM has been as or perhaps more consistent than the Euro.  But the relatively small southeast ticks have resulted in a likely snowier outcome.  

It’s not just about low placement. Models also forecast temperature, wind, dews etc. 

on this forum do we track low placement or snow? If it’s snow then the Euro schooled the other models. 
 

the prosecution rests

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, psv88 said:

Did you see the most recent RGEM move? Last run it gave the city no snow at all. It has been terrible. Give it a rest

yea ok, it shifted east and still only gives east of NYC 1-3. My point is this isn't looking like a win for the Euro if you have been paying attention. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s not just about low placement. Models also forecast temperature, wind, dews etc. 

on this forum do we track low placement or snow? If it’s snow then the Euro schooled the other models. 
 

the prosecution rests

We track low placement from 5 days out and are not concerned with P-Types that early. The Euro and GFS started out very suppressed well Southeast of the Benchmark. So the CMC can shift  60-100 miles east next few runs and still win on storm track. Snow amounts are always the last thing we are concerned about since model skill beyond a few days has always been very low here. 
 

 

[wxman]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s not just about low placement. Models also forecast temperature, wind, dews etc. 

on this forum do we track low placement or snow? If it’s snow then the Euro schooled the other models. 
 

the prosecution rests

So if three days out the euro showed snow because the low was racing towards Bermuda and the the rgem showed rain because the low was off of ACY and the end result was snow because the actual low passed 50 miles east of ACY, you would say the euro performed better?  

[SACRUS]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS originally had a fish storm and now has come back to the west. When we evaluate storm tracks nobody is taking P-Types from 5 days out or longer verbatim. The Euro and EPS has been consistently to the east side of the model envelope. So if anything the GFS moved towards the CMC. The CMC can shift another 30-40 miles east and still end up closer in track than the Euro original had.
 

 

Well illustrated here, 12z should update shortly