Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

FV3 stalls the coastal front very close to the I-95 corridor.

Mash potatoes 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The higher res FV3 on Pivital has the coastal front just west of I-95.

Well-hopefully that’s wrong. Does it have a good record? 

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I’m going to keep replying to you as we are basically neighbors in Morris County; this will be the biggest event of the season for our area thus far.

Enjoy it and don’t get lost in the model to model differences. 6+” coming for us in my humble opinion. 

Agreed.  Looking good around here.  Been thinking 4-6" since after 12Z guidance yesterday.  Still thinking that this morning.  Would be surprised if less than 4 around here but could see a bit more than 6 IF everything fell into place.    My largest event so far this season has been 6.5" on 11/22-11/23.  Followed by 5.2" on 12/21.  We'll see if either of both of those get moved down the list.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The higher res FV3 on Pivital has the coastal front just west of I-95.

Thanks Bluewave.

Seems this is the furthest west model now that the RDPS came east. 

 

[the_other_guy]

24 minutes ago, Ravenz098 said:

Hey all, excited by the immenint storm. Got a question. We're up in Deposit,  NY. (Broome County). Driving back to Staten Island tomorrow.  Think probably leaving about 12-1, what time do you think the snow starts up here and will we beat the worst of it.  ( About a 3 hour drive. )

TIA

 

get up and leave. You know that haha. Not for SI, but for Broome

[North and West]

Brace myself? My dude this is a weather forum not a psychiatric forum. 

.

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Well-hopefully that’s wrong. Does it have a good record? 

No. It stinks. 
 

euro has been locked in for 5 days. 3-6” snowfall across the area. NAM v RGEM as to higher total west v east. 
 

still think are good for 3-4” here

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I’m going to keep replying to you as we are basically neighbors in Morris County; this will be the biggest event of the season for our area thus far.

Enjoy it and don’t get lost in the model to model differences. 6+” coming for us in my humble opinion. 

Definitely. You're in a great spot 

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Brace myself? My dude this is a weather forum not a psychiatric forum. 

Lol sure it's not. Snow is basically like a crack addiction 

[winterwx21]

Just woke up late on a Saturday and am catching up on the models. Great to see the RGEM finally coming to its senses and correcting! NAM models nice and cold. I continue to like a 3 to 5 inch forecast for my area. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Just woke up late on a Saturday and am catching up on the models. Great to see the RGEM finally coming to its senses and correcting! NAM models nice and cold. I continue like a 3 to 5 inch forecast for my area. 

Damn I've been up since 545 tracking this 

But its not an addiction or anything

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

No. It stinks. 
 

euro has been locked in for 5 days. 3-6” snowfall across the area. NAM v RGEM as to higher total west v east. 
 

still think are good for 3-4” here

If we see it all snow and we start accumulating early and not waste the beginning to slop/white rain, we should be good for 4-6” I think. Might be a situation though where the south shore struggles for a while until the cold air hammer really comes down on the N flow. The marginal degree or two setups are usually OK here but it hinges on that degree or two. 

[winterwx21]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Damn I've been up since 545 tracking this 

But its not an addiction or anything

Haha. I was up late last night looking at the Euro, so I decided to sleep late today. Definitely will get up much earlier tomorrow. 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs looks pretty good

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs looks pretty good

Woof

[Allsnow]

Gfs ticks east 

 

we locked 

[Allsnow]

Can we not sweat the rgem anymore please? 

[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Damn I've been up since 545 tracking this 

But its not an addiction or anything

I woke up at 7:45 but had to deal with some other stuff first (plus last night's Euro looked good so I slept easy.)

There was a giant hawk in my back yard, no clue what it is, but it's dark grey on top and mottled brown and white on the bottom with huge red eyes.  I took pictures but it's too large to upload here.  Any idea what species it could be?

It's the third time I've seen it but the first time I've gotten pictures of it.

 

So we have giant hawks and cute parakeets here, Long Island is turning into a bird sanctuary. 

 

 

 

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Can we not sweat the rgem anymore please? 

Yeah it's a shame the RGEM gave so many people anxiety. When 1 model has a radically different opinion than every other model, obviously it's extremely likely that it's wrong. Horrible performance by the RGEM. I hope it's embarrassed. 

[NJwx85]

Really nothing has changed since yesterday except that totals have gone up pretty much everywhere except the far East end.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it's a shame the RGEM gave so many people anxiety. When 1 model has a radically different opinion than every other model, obviously it's extremely likely that it's wrong. Horrible performance by the RGEM. I hope it's embarrassed. 

Unless the euro comes way west it seems pretty locked in now. With that said any model shifting alot at this point shouldn't be taken too seriously. Ukie and gfs have looked great for at least a day and a half for just about everybody here

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I woke up at 7:45 but had to deal with some other stuff first (plus last night's Euro looked good so I slept easy.)

There was a giant hawk in my back yard, no clue what it is, but it's dark grey on top and mottled brown and white on the bottom with huge red eyes.  I took pictures but it's too large to upload here.  Any idea what species it could be?

It's the third time I've seen it but the first time I've gotten pictures of it.

 

So we have giant hawks and cute parakeets here, Long Island is turning into a bird sanctuary. 

 

 

 

Take a screenshot of it then you might be able to post it

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I woke up at 7:45 but had to deal with some other stuff first (plus last night's Euro looked good so I slept easy.)

There was a giant hawk in my back yard, no clue what it is, but it's dark grey on top and mottled brown and white on the bottom with huge red eyes.  I took pictures but it's too large to upload here.  Any idea what species it could be?

It's the third time I've seen it but the first time I've gotten pictures of it.

 

So we have giant hawks and cute parakeets here, Long Island is turning into a bird sanctuary. 

 

 

 

Yeah that was a reason why I slept easy as well and didn't wake up early. I would have woken up early today if I was worried, but I've been very confident that this is going to be an all snow event. 

[psv88]

Tough for @Rjaybut I still think he gets 3-4”. 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Well-hopefully that’s wrong. Does it have a good record? 

Every new East Coast event starts a new record. Since different models do better or worse depending on the storm. Each storm can have one model which does better than others. That being said, it’s just one piece of guidance that gets factored in. Unfortunately, those general model skill scores usually don’t hold for East Coast storms. 

[MJO812]

Cmc shifted slightly east

[MJO812]

Nice shift for hrdps

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Every new East Coast event starts a new record. Since different models do better or worse depending on the storm. Each storm can have one model which does better than others. That being said, it’s just one piece of guidance that gets factored in. Unfortunately, those general model skill scores usually don’t hold for East Coast storms. 

Sure but for any particular storm we can see which models have been consistent and look back at other storms and see that as well. Euro has been locked in and the models trended towards it. Same thing happened last week.