Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[TriPol]

We need the required "It's nowcasting time" posts.

[steve392]

What are the temps supposed to be around when it's snowing?  We looking at a heavy wet snow or fluffy powder?

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, steve392 said:

What are the temps supposed to be around when it's snowing?  We looking at a heavy wet snow or fluffy powder?

33-34 at the start. Mid to upper 20s at the end

[steve392]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

33-34 at the start. Mid to upper 20s at the end

I'll be working during most of the duration.  Will be a good Monday morning cleanup.

[Allsnow]

49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro is like 3 or 4 for us but 6+ west. Less east. 

Eps came way west

The mean is the highest it’s been for us. 
 

but I understand the concern locally 

[BoulderWX]

Funny that everyone was discounting RGEM and CMC…

[greenmtnwx]

5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Funny that everyone was discounting RGEM and CMC…

Euro and GFS look nothing like them

[ILoveWinter]

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Funny that everyone was discounting RGEM and CMC…

Would be a tremendous coup, especially if the euro continues to shift one day before gametime

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Funny that everyone was discounting RGEM and CMC…

I'll likely be right on the knife's edge here. When the RGEM refused to budge run after run it was a sign to me it wasn't totally wrong. I was hoping the Euro would be more right though, looks like that won't be the case. GFS still looks OK here but it's close at the start until the low kicks NE and we get the N flow. I still think as long as the low tracks SE of Montauk we should be okay outside the twin forks maybe. RGEM did tick SE a little but not by enough to matter here-it's still mainly a washout.

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'll likely be right on the knife's edge here. When the RGEM refused to budge run after run it was a sign to me it wasn't totally wrong. I was hoping the Euro would be more right though, looks like that won't be the case. GFS still looks OK here but it's close at the start until the low kicks NE and we get the N flow. I still think as long as the low tracks SE of Montauk we should be okay outside the twin forks maybe. RGEM did tick SE a little but not by enough to matter here-it's still mainly a washout.

Yeah I'm not sure what to think. The euro gfs and rgem continue to adjust maybe trying to come to a consensus track just offshore.  I worry we lose some precip at the onset too with temps above freezing at the start and it's such a fast mover that any delay shaves off accumulations. I like the typical areas like n&w of 287 as a lock for 6+ now. Hopefully everyone at least gets 2 or 3 from the heavy burst in the evening like the gfs has been showing. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I'm not sure what to think. The euro gfs and rgem continue to adjust maybe trying to come to a consensus track just offshore.  I worry we lose some precip at the onset too with temps above freezing at the start and it's such a fast mover that any delay shaves off accumulations. I like the typical areas like n&w of 287 as a lock for 6+ now. Hopefully everyone at least gets 2 or 3 from the heavy burst in the evening like the gfs has been showing. 

I think the question's really how long it takes to turn the flow northerly, cold air crashes in quickly after that. GFS has the low near/just E of Cape May which at that time could be dicey east of the city then tracks it ENE for the most part which would turn the winds N. IMBY the profile is very marginal at the beginning, maybe 34F snow until the wind backs around and it crashes into the 20s. It'll be pasty wet snow for a few hours anyway. I've found IMBY that marginal situations are usually okay since I have a couple hundred foot elevation but this time who knows. 

West of the city doesn't have these questions and is probably good for at least a high end advisory event.

[donsutherland1]

At this time, even as the RGEM is an outstanding mesoscale model, its scenario of little or no snow for the Philadelphia and New York City areas is probably a lower probability worst-case scenario. Indeed, its 6z run shifted south and eastward by about 40 miles. The HREF (through 1/20 0z) and WPC probabilistic snowfall outlooks are closer to the model consensus excluding the RGEM.  The 12z and 18z runs of the RGEM should provide a lot of insight. If they move closer to the current model consensus, one can then take the worst-case scenario off the table. Right now, I'm still comfortable with the idea of 3"-6" at Central Park and 1"-3" at Islip, though giving some weight to the RGEM, it's possible the amounts could be toward the lower end of the ranges. In any case, we'll know more later.

1/18 0z RGEM:

1/18 6z RGEM:

1/18 0z HREF through 1/20 0z:

WPC Probabilistic Guidance: 2" or More Snowfall:

 

[SnoSki14]

Maybe it'll keep trending amped and all this will be a waste of time over rain. 

I think that's very possible 

[Snowlover11]

feeling good here nw of the TZ.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Maybe it'll keep trending amped and all this will be a waste of time over rain. 

I think that's very possible 

The RGEM budging SE a little to me is a good sign. But if the GFS is wrong by a degree or two I waste maybe half the initial precip to rain or nonaccumulating slop. 

[sussexcountyobs]

I imagine the watch will be upgraded to warning for my area later this evening. 

[Stormlover74]

I expect Upton to go with advisories for Union eastern Essex and everyone else east of the parkway. Not sure about eastern LI.

Western Essex probably gets a warning along with bergen and passaic and north of there. Somerset is a tough call for Mt holly as they don't split the county so they could go warning there 

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I imagine the watch will be upgraded to warning for my area later this evening. 

by 4pm most likely 

[Big Jims Videos]

Looks like I'll still be waiting to top anything since January 2022 here.  

[ForestHillWx]

42 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Funny that everyone was discounting RGEM and CMC…

Dude, relax. Even if the RGEM is somehow correct, MMU has increased its projected total. 

You gotta smell the rain to really get the goods…

[LoboLeader1]

Winter storm watch posted for this area of western Massachusetts.

Winter Storm Watch

From Sun 12:00 pm until Mon 7:00 am EST

Issued By

Albany - NY, US, National Weather Service

Affected Area

Litchfield County in northwestern Connecticut, the Berkshires of western Massachusetts, the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, mid Hudson Valley, Taconics and the eastern Capital District in eastern New York, and southern Vermont

Description

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 inches or more possible. WHERE...Litchfield County in northwestern Connecticut, the Berkshires of western Massachusetts, the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, mid Hudson Valley, Taconics and the eastern Capital District in eastern New York, and southern Vermont. WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Winter storm watch posted for this area of western Massachusetts.

Winter Storm Watch

From Sun 12:00 pm until Mon 7:00 am EST

Issued By

Albany - NY, US, National Weather Service

Affected Area

Litchfield County in northwestern Connecticut, the Berkshires of western Massachusetts, the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, mid Hudson Valley, Taconics and the eastern Capital District in eastern New York, and southern Vermont

Description

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 inches or more possible. WHERE...Litchfield County in northwestern Connecticut, the Berkshires of western Massachusetts, the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, mid Hudson Valley, Taconics and the eastern Capital District in eastern New York, and southern Vermont. WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning

 wrong sub forum.

[Dark Star]

22 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Dude, relax. Even if the RGEM is somehow correct, MMU has increased its projected total. 

You gotta smell the rain to really get the goods…

I like that last quote...

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Dude, relax. Even if the RGEM is somehow correct, MMU has increased its projected total. 

You gotta smell the rain to really get the goods…

Happens with every storm here

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Happens with every storm here

HRRR with slop. Models trending in the wrong direction 

[MJO812]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

HRRR with slop. Models trending in the wrong direction 

HRRR is fine. You worry every time we have a storm. It's hilarious. 

[MJO812]

Euro AI 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

HRRR with slop. Models trending in the wrong direction 

It trended better from 6z. I'm accepting at this phase that the first few hours here will be a nailbiter.

[lee59]

I'm hoping for at least 2-3 inches, as long as frigid air is moving in it might as well be with a snow cover. I'm confident we will get at least that much.

[Yanksfan]

40 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I expect Upton to go with advisories for Union eastern Essex and everyone else east of the parkway. Not sure about eastern LI.

Western Essex probably gets a warning along with bergen and passaic and north of there. Somerset is a tough call for Mt holly as they don't split the county so they could go warning there 

I live in Nutley township. Currently there are no advisories. Just 3 miles away in Clifton they are under a watch. Talk about being on the fence!