Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Irish said:

We'd be lucky to get that one as it looks like a southern slide no? with the tremendous cold pressing down?

Next weekend has a chance. Cmc also shows snow.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Irish said:

We'd be lucky to get that one as it looks like a southern slide no? with the tremendous cold pressing down?

No the tremendous cold will be here before the storm.  This storm comes at the end of it.

 

[MJO812]

Ukie

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

Staying up for the Euro, Ant?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Staying up for the Euro, Ant?

Yes

[jm1220]

To me UKMET looked a little better-more QPF and not amped. Best down here/along the coast but inland still gets a decent event.

[Irish]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No the tremendous cold will be here before the storm.  This storm comes at the end of it.

 

Got it, so a system is on the horizon but we could be looking at a mix/tainting as the cold slides back?

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Euro bumped up precip for our area. 

[jm1220]

Euro looks pretty much the exact same to me. Still hundreds of miles east of the RGEM and lightest with the precip. Did beef up inland areas a little but across the board area wide it would be a maybe 2-4" type event. Hopefully we see a GFS/UKMET type outcome.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

GFS is the best case scenario for 95% of us. Still amped enough for plenty of snow inland and good ratios, and cold enough for the city/coast. The 5% it’s not ideal for is well east in Suffolk but it should cool off enough pretty quick and flip over. Snow would probably start pasty in the city/east and become powder by the end. 

Basically my initial thoughts before 0z, everything is trending to a consensus. We snow!!. It is coming in more juiced also.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I was really surprised to discover how inactive the group is on numerous snow threats next week. I figured there'd be 2 or 3 threads going for 19-20, 21-22, and the 24th. I can see amounts between 3-6" in many locations late Sunday into Sunday evening. I do not think there's going to be much rain around the region except for a rain/sleet mix for an hour or two way out east on LI, maybe along portions of the south shore. I really do think it's a snowstorm. Then Wednesday probably has even a higher ceiling if the storm were to come closer as does Friday which is a pure coastal. 

WX/PT

[MJO812]

Eps looks west. Great for everyone. 

Night 

[jdj5211]

5 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I was really surprised to discover how inactive the group is on numerous snow threats next week. I figured there'd be 2 or 3 threads going for 19-20, 21-22, and the 24th. I can see amounts between 3-6" in many locations late Sunday into Sunday evening. I do not think there's going to be much rain around the region except for a rain/sleet mix for an hour or two way out east on LI, maybe along portions of the south shore. I really do think it's a snowstorm. Then Wednesday probably has even a higher ceiling if the storm were to come closer as does Friday which is a pure coastal. 

WX/PT

this!  The old forums used to be so alive and kicking....we would get multiple threads for each storm threat, model play by play, mets weighing in consistently etc....now its just a bunch of banter with the occasional weather post sprinkled in....

I think the main problem is there are a ton more social media outlets now compared to back then.  As long as us weather nerds have somewhere to chat I'm happy, but yes, it could be so much better....

 

[SI Mailman]

It’s also different since we were tracking a HECS 9 years ago this week. Haven’t had any monsters worth tracking in these parts for quite some time now

[Wxoutlooksblog]

27 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

It’s also different since we were tracking a HECS 9 years ago this week. Haven’t had any monsters worth tracking in these parts for quite some time now

I would not be so certain that there might not be a monster in our not too distant future. Now I do assume with regards to monsters you are referring to 15" or more. We did have quite a number of those from 2010 to 2020, very unusual to have that many in a decade.  As long as we can keep the cold we'll have a chance as the jet stream gradually slows down.

WX/PT

[Roger Smith]

The second of the three "threats" looks way suppressed and OTS, but the third one looks interesting. The first one is beginning to lock into a 3-6" event. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I was really surprised to discover how inactive the group is on numerous snow threats next week. I figured there'd be 2 or 3 threads going for 19-20, 21-22, and the 24th. I can see amounts between 3-6" in many locations late Sunday into Sunday evening. I do not think there's going to be much rain around the region except for a rain/sleet mix for an hour or two way out east on LI, maybe along portions of the south shore. I really do think it's a snowstorm. Then Wednesday probably has even a higher ceiling if the storm were to come closer as does Friday which is a pure coastal. 

WX/PT

Fool's gold fatigue. A lot of forecast threats that failed to materialize. It's been a rough few years outside one January a few years back.