Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NAM (I know) looks like a 3-6” type event for everyone. Sign the dotted line. 

this will never be more than  a 4-6 event for us even if it were all snow.

 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

It's slowly coming around 

I don’t see that… in fact snowline looks on par or maybe a couple miles N/W. Either way, it holds with its depiction 

[Nibor]

Last 7 runs

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

I don’t see that… in fact snowline looks on par or maybe a couple miles N/W. Either way, it holds with its depiction 

Yup still a disaster for anyone near/east of the city. Hoping it can eventually slip 75 miles or so SE. I wanted to see at least a small shift. 

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM going flatter through 24-30 is a sign its moving towards everything else eventually IMO

[Snowlover11]

Reggie still killing us, literally.  talk about on the edge!

[qg_omega]

14 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Last 7 runs

Insane consistency for a model that’s going to be dead wrong

[brooklynwx99]

the RGEM has 3”/hr rates over E PA. i’m almost tossing on that alone. this system isn’t capable of that

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Insane consistency for a model that’s going to be dead wrong

A big reason I'm tossing it is its totally botching the ensuing event down in the Deep South.  I think either tonight or tomorrow the CMC finally caves on that one but the EURO AI now barely even gets precip into SRN AL/GA.  To me, thats a strong sign the pattern is causing the CMC/RGEM problems and its likely to be impacting this system too

[sussexcountyobs]

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The strong arctic cold front will be approaching from the west on Saturday night and will cross through the region early on Sunday morning. With a substantial cold air advection push behind the front, this will usher in a much colder airmass. As it does so, an area of low pressure will be developing over the Deep South along the tail-end of the arctic front. This area of low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary and deepen as it moves off the coast near the Virginia/North Carolina border by Sunday afternoon. From here, forecast guidance has come into better agreement this afternoon and has shown an overall northwestern shift to the track of the surface low by most global and ensemble guidance. This will place the surface low just off the New Jersey coast on Sunday afternoon. Still expect that the 12Z Canadian/GEM guidance is underdoing the cold air advection regime on the northwest side of the low, so suspect that the low will remain just off our coastline instead of tracking directly over southern New Jersey. Heading into Sunday night as the low exits, it appears that the deepening surface low will pass right over or just off to the northwest of the 40N/70W benchmark. Also, available guidance suggests an overall uptick in forecast QPF values by nearly 0.1-0.2", especially north and west of the I-95 corridor. Factoring in rather high snow-to-liquid ratios to the north and west, there again has been an increase in forecaster confidence in plowable snowfall for areas northwest of the I-95 corridor. Thus, our forecast this afternoon generally incorporates a blend of the situation discussed above. Still, this does not mean that areas south and east, including the Philadelphia metro will see snow through the entire duration of the event. Some short-range guidance does depict a subtle warm layer at 850mb so there may be at least a brief rain/snow mix for areas directly along the I-95 corridor at the onset. For this reason, have kept a rain/snow mix for these areas through Sunday morning and early afternoon. However, as the cold air begins to pour into the region as the low departs, we should see an eventual changeover from rain to rain/snow mix to all snow even down to the coast by Sunday night. In coordination with neighboring forecast offices and WPC, have opted to issue Winter Storm Watches for Sunday morning into Sunday evening for all of our Pennsylvania Counties except for Delaware, Philadelphia and Lower Bucks. Also, have issued Winter Storm Watches for Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex, and Morris Counties in New Jersey. These are the areas which are likely to observe warning level snowfall with lesser amounts expected elsewhere. In terms of amounts, generally expecting a widespread 5-8" snowfall in the Watch area with localized amounts up to 10" possible (especially across the higher terrain). Stepping southeast into and along the immediate I-95 corridor, expecting a 3-5" snowfall event due to potential mixing at the onset. Of course, these totals can be higher or lower depending on the duration of mixed precipitation. Closer to the coast where prolonged periods of mixing and at times plain rain is to occur before the changeover, a 1-3" event is expected. As always, the forecast can vary over the next 36-48 hours as more hi-res guidance becomes available. So stay tuned for the latest updates to the forecast through the holiday weekend!

[Bxstormwatcher360]

The 18z gfs and 0z nam look pretty darn similar. We all snow to the coast unless your in Eastern end of li. 3 to 6 is good call atm. 0z gfs should be coming out soon.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

The 18z gfs and 0z nam look pretty darn similar. We all snow to the coast unless your in Eastern end of li. 3 to 6 is good call atm. 0z gfs should be coming out soon.

18z GFS looked a little hairy east of the William Floyd initially until winds turn N and really drives the cold in, and snow would probably be wet from the city east initially but I’d gladly take. It’s the best case scenario for around the city, still plenty strong/amped. And I’d think eastern Suffolk would still get a few hours of decent snow at the end. But here comes 0z anyway. 

[Nibor]

0z GFS another nice run for the metro.

[MJO812]

Boom

[Nibor]

[MJO812]

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Insane consistency for a model that’s going to be dead wrong

if it's the same mistake happening each time then YES

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

18z GFS looked a little hairy east of the William Floyd initially until winds turn N and really drives the cold in, and snow would probably be wet from the city east initially but I’d gladly take. It’s the best case scenario for around the city, still plenty strong/amped. And I’d think eastern Suffolk would still get a few hours of decent snow at the end. But here comes 0z anyway. 

Kind of like the Millenium storm lol

[brooklynwx99]

GFS crushes the metro again

[MJO812]

Cmc is still warm but it did shift slightly east and colder .

[allgame830]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is still warm but it did shift slightly east and colder .

It certainly is juiced up! 

[jm1220]

GFS is the best case scenario for 95% of us. Still amped enough for plenty of snow inland and good ratios, and cold enough for the city/coast. The 5% it’s not ideal for is well east in Suffolk but it should cool off enough pretty quick and flip over. Snow would probably start pasty in the city/east and become powder by the end. 

[SRRTA22]

I know this is OT and for such a complicated system...the amount of information on this thread is impeccable... Whatever happens we finally had and have something to track.

This has been awesome. Good luck to all

[psv88]

GFS caved to Euro for the most part

[MJO812]

Gfs says maybe we will do it again next weekend 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

GFS caved to Euro for the most part

How is that? GFS is inside BM and shows a significant storm for nearly everybody. Euro Op is weaker and farther east. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs says maybe we will do it again next weekend 

That might be the largest storm of all since it's the pattern change storm.

Saturday or Sunday (or both days?)

 

[MJO812]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

That might be the largest storm of all since it's the pattern change storm.

Saturday or Sunday (or both days?)

 

The pattern isn't going to change 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

That might be the largest storm of all since it's the pattern change storm.

Saturday or Sunday (or both days?)

 

Friday 

[Irish]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs says maybe we will do it again next weekend 

We'd be lucky to get that one as it looks like a southern slide no? with the tremendous cold pressing down?