Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[MJO812]

Nam is way offshore now like the euro

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is way offshore now like the euro

Nice recovery at hour 48

[winterwx21]

Good to see the NAM coming in colder. Hopefully RGEM will start correcting tonight. 

[mannynyc]

High res NAM looks better than 12K

[Allsnow]

Euro ftw? 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Euro ftw? 

Imagine 

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro ftw? 

NAM 3km nice and cold with a nice 3 to 4 inch snowfall. Euro and UKMET have been locked in with this type of solution too. I think this outcome is most likely. GFS is probably overdone and RGEM is off its rocker. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

NAM 3km nice and cold with a nice 3 to 4 inch snowfall. Euro and UKMET have been locked in with this type of solution too. I think this outcome is most likely. GFS is probably overdone and RGEM is off its rocker. 

Agreed. Too many worried about a short range model that is always amped and wrong with qpf 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM 3km nice and cold with a nice 3 to 4 inch snowfall. Euro and UKMET have been locked in with this type of solution too. I think this outcome is most likely. GFS is probably overdone and RGEM is off its rocker. 

Watch the rgem go further amped at 0z

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM 3km nice and cold with a nice 3 to 4 inch snowfall. Euro and UKMET have been locked in with this type of solution too. I think this outcome is most likely. GFS is probably overdone and RGEM is off its rocker. 

I doubt it. NWS wouldn't be putting up WSW N and W for 6-10 inches. Don't be fooled by the crappy nam. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I doubt it. NWS wouldn't be putting up WSW N and W for 6-10 inches. Don't be fooled by the crappy nam. 

Rgem and cmc are outliers

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM 3km nice and cold with a nice 3 to 4 inch snowfall. Euro and UKMET have been locked in with this type of solution too. I think this outcome is most likely. GFS is probably overdone and RGEM is off its rocker. 

Regular nam

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I doubt it. NWS wouldn't be putting up WSW N and W for 6-10 inches. Don't be fooled by the crappy nam. 

Not just the NAM. Euro and UKMET have been showing this type of solution too. Still a ways to go though ... obviously nothing is for sure. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Rgem and cmc are outliers

I'll take a combo of Icon/CMC/RGEM/GFS over Euro/Ukie/Nam 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Regular nam

Hilarious. 

[mob1]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Regular nam

Probably just downslope shadowing from the 14,000 foot peaks of the Morris county mountains. 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Regular nam

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I'll take a combo of Icon/CMC/RGEM/GFS over Euro/Ukie/Nam 

I'll take the #1 model, the #2 model and the model with end stage liver failure over the icon/canadian/gfs combo.  

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I'll take a combo of Icon/CMC/RGEM/GFS over Euro/Ukie/Nam 

The GFS is not in the RGEM camp 

[jm1220]

NAM (I know) looks like a 3-6” type event for everyone. Sign the dotted line. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

The GFS is not in the RGEM camp 

The answer is somewhere in the middle. 

[Allsnow]

Icon will be further southeast this run 

[Allsnow]

Hgts lower on the rgem out to 23 hours 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon will be further southeast this run 

Icon 3-6 for the area 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hgts lower on the rgem out to 23 hours 

Further East but still issues for the coast. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Further East but still issues for the coast. 

Yep tik tik

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Further East but still issues for the coast. 

It's slowly coming around 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yep tik tik

It’s still pretty awful for the coast. I would have expected more of a cave job but didn’t get it that run 

[jm1220]

RGEM looks maybe slightly better but definitely still favors inland. Low still tracks over I-95 which is all rain east of there. I don’t expect it to make big moves in one run, don’t think I’ve ever seen that. Icon went maybe 30-50 miles SE. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

It’s still pretty awful for the coast. I would have expected more of a cave job but didn’t get it that run 

Yep same here.