Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

NWS-NYC finally corrected their map and reissued.  No longer completely inconsistent with Mt. Holly's map...and Mt. Holly just put out the regional map which I like...

 

8-12 for Mt Pocono wow

 

4-6 for the south shore is pretty decent.

[SnoSki14]

If this busts places in the deep south will see more snow than us this winter. 

New Orleans looking at a historic snowstorm on some of these models

[sussexcountyobs]

24 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's still crap

I'm sure you're probably right. My point is. It doesn't matter what model it is.  If it's more than 3.5 days before an event. Take that models solution with a huge grain of salt.

[MJO812]

Sref are really amped. Not good for the coast. Hopefully they are wrong .

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref are really amped. Not good for the coast. Hopefully they are wrong .

this is why you should want the Euro as far offshore as it can get.  Benchmark track sounds perfect.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If this busts places in the deep south will see more snow than us this winter. 

New Orleans looking at a historic snowstorm on some of these models

They might have more snow than us even if it doesn't bust.  A 4 inch snowstorm still keeps NYC in single digits snowfall and if we don't get any more snow this winter, that will be yet another single digit snowfall winter.

 

[BoulderWX]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref are really amped. Not good for the coast. Hopefully they are wrong .

Yup.. seeing a lot of chatter on the twitter that it’s looking like it will be more amped. As much as CMC/RGEM, who knows. But nobody should be completely discounting the Canadian models 

[North and West]

 

sign me up.

.

[the_other_guy]

If NWS believes their own snowfall map, why hasnt a WSW been issued for the area yet? 

 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

If NWS believes their own snowfall map, why hasnt a WSW been issued for the area yet? 

 

 

They have issued a WSWatch here for Sunday.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

If NWS believes their own snowfall map, why hasnt a WSW been issued for the area yet? 

 

 

They've been issued for the NW suburbs where they're most confident of warning level amounts for now.

[the_other_guy]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If this busts places in the deep south will see more snow than us this winter. 

New Orleans looking at a historic snowstorm on some of these models

you are so skeptical of models up here… But you believe models as gospel when they’re showing a Gulf Coast city getting a historic snowstorm?

An inch would be historic there

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

If NWS believes their own snowfall map, why hasnt a WSW been issued for the area yet? 

 

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/meg/WinterStormCriteriaMEG.pdf

[MJO812]

Euro AI

[MJO812]

[Franklin0529]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro AI

Looks pretty similar. Maybe a tick East?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

36 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

If NWS believes their own snowfall map, why hasnt a WSW been issued for the area yet? 

 

 

There are WSW in all of Uptons north and west areas. Have been since 3:00 PM. 

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Looks pretty similar. Maybe a tick East?

Ticked East. Very similar to past runs. It really hasn’t wavered much at all since Wednesday 

[Stormlover74]

Doesn't mean much but the 0z hrrr is well southeast of 18z

[donsutherland1]

Here's the latest Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) for snow amount. Much of the New York City area, including the western half of Long Island is in the "moderate impact" area from snow amount. I continue to think a general 3"-6" snowfall in and around NYC is reasonable. Areas to the north and west, including northwest New Jersey, northern Westchester County and Rockland County could have an area of 4"-8" amounts.

[BoulderWX]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Doesn't mean much but the 0z hrrr is well southeast of 18z

Still not good for the coast and the city but a better run than 18z I suppose 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Doesn't mean much but the 0z hrrr is well southeast of 18z

HRRR is always too amped at the end of its range. 

[Franklin0529]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ticked East. Very similar to past runs. It really hasn’t wavered much at all since Wednesday 

Yea I been saying that. It's been rock steady since before then I think. Very minor changes

[Franklin0529]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Still not good for the coast and the city but a better run than 18z I suppose 

It's also the hrrr at 36 hrs

[MJO812]

[BoulderWX]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Maybe the one solution that would make everyone happy 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

HRRR is always too amped at the end of its range. 

Right. I only mentioned because it made a pretty sizeable shift but it's still not very useful so it could shift back

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12z? Is that the right run?

[RU848789]

Why oh why is anyone looking at the HRRR beyond 18 hrs?  It's crap beyond then.  I think it was the little 1/8 SNJ storm where the HRRR was showing 4-5" at ~24 hours out; most got <1".  There are other examples.  

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Why oh why is anyone looking at the HRRR beyond 18 hrs?  It's crap beyond then.  I think it was the little 1/8 SNJ storm where the HRRR was showing 4-5" at ~24 hours out; most got <1".  There are other examples.  

What else am I going to do between 7 and 9?