SnowGoose69 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The RGEM does have a bit of an amped bias past 48 but even if you account for that it still would be well west of everything else. You need a 100 mile shift more or less 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago NWS-NYC finally corrected their map and reissued. No longer completely inconsistent with Mt. Holly's map...and Mt. Holly just put out the regional map which I like... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I wouldn’t feel comfortable releasing any snowfall forecasts to the public until Saturday with such widely varying tracks between the GFS, Euro, and GEM. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago One of the better follows so worth noting some real time analysis - all options very much on the table. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: One of the better follows so worth noting some real time analysis - all options very much on the table. One more: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: One more: I hate this tweet so much bc of gif he used. It's useless. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Wait. Yesterday and for days before almost all the talk here was GFS is crap, useless, should be retired, etc.. What changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Rjay said: I hate this tweet so much bc of gif he used. It's useless. He can be cryptic but knows his stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: Wait. Yesterday and for days before almost all the talk here was GFS is crap, useless, should be retired, etc.. What changed? I wanted to say this like three times and kept deleting it… you know exactly what changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Wait. Yesterday and for days before almost all the talk here was GFS is crap, useless, should be retired, etc.. What changed? I’m going with the model that gives my location the most snow… 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Euro still not budging 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Euro still not budging Wow slower to Move wave 1 out this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago ECMWF is 2-4" for all. not bad whatsoever 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: He can be cryptic but knows his stuff. Lol is that that crankywx guy? That dude is the definition of a twitter weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Wait. Yesterday and for days before almost all the talk here was GFS is crap, useless, should be retired, etc.. What changed? A broken clock is still right 2X a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18Z GFS is 6-10in Kuchera and 18Z Euro is 2-4in Kuchera.... what's the big difference here....track of the low? Precip shield looks very similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: 18Z GFS is 6-10in Kuchera and 18Z Euro is 2-4in Kuchera.... what's the big difference here....track of the low? Precip shield looks very similar? Gfs is stronger and has heavier precip even though it all falls in about 8 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 hours ago, Rjay said: You'll rain and then have a high of 17 Which models give Long Island the most snow that’s the model I’m going to say is right. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago With this much waffling I'm going with either a mix to rain for the coast while inland does better with snow, or maybe a snowier solution for the coast, or perhaps rain and sleet reaching further inland. That's my final forecast. Highpoint NJ gets the most in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago IMO GFS is slightly overdone and Euro slightly underdone. Middle ground would be a good bet for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago conventional wisdom would have you blend, bringing you to an AIFS/GFS type solution, but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: There’s no way there can be a GFS like outcome shifted 25-50mi southeast or even the numerous Euro outcomes that would be a solid hit everywhere? I’m as aware as anyone that I could be dealing with a mainly rain event here and the RGEM barely budged but that’s ridiculous. I didn’t say a shift couldn’t happen, but that would screw some inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago 37 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Wait. Yesterday and for days before almost all the talk here was GFS is crap, useless, should be retired, etc.. What changed? It's still crap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago 35 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’m going with the model that gives my location the most snow… As you should 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago kinda hilarious that this is the difference between the RGEM, ECWMF, and GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago Eps members are west of op. Nice to see . Nothing is like the cmc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps members are west of op. Nice to see . Nothing is like the cmc. Something's gotta give. Maybe not til 0z tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps members are west of op. Nice to see . Nothing is like the cmc. It'd be nice if the op was west of itself. Relying on the goofus as a "compromise" doesn't make me confident in a forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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