Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

NAM is RGEM’d up

3k further east 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

NAM is RGEM’d up

Not quite 

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

NAM is RGEM’d up

Looks a lot more like the GFS to me?

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Looks a lot more like the GFS to me?

Yeah its 50 miles east of the 12z rgem

[Allsnow]

Nam is a good track but the coast is warm 

 

[jdj5211]

what is going on with the NAM precip shield?  it's 48 hours out...getting in range....is it going to be that spotty during the storm?

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Nam is a good track but the coast is warm 

 

Because the precip is spotty

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Because the precip is spotty

still out of range but it's getting the right idea

[Allsnow]

3k will be a big hit 

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

still out of range but it's getting the right idea

Yeah I think it’s starting to go with the rest of the guidance. 

[snywx]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is caving

Did you expect anything else? 

[steve392]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Someone is going to get nam’d this run 

Im gunna get vanilla nam'd

[MJO812]

Just now, snywx said:

Did you expect anything else? 

Nope

[MJO812]

[jm1220]

Just now, snywx said:

Did you expect anything else? 

For the billionth time it needs to be retired. 

[MJO812]

[BoulderWX]

Hahaha 6-10” WSW for me.. I want what the NWS is smoking this fine Friday afternoon. 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

3k will be a big hit 

3 to 5. Ukie like and cold

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Hahaha 6-10” WSW for me.. I want what the NWS is smoking this fine Friday afternoon. 

Not sure where you are, NW NJ? But that looks like one of the best places to be for this event. 

[EWR757]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

?

As an example, the 12Z AIFS has EWR above freezing boundary layer until about 00Z on Monday.  The GFS is similar.  

 

[NJwx85]

That's more like it, NAM caves.

 

[Rmine1]

Brings back memories of yore. Rain for most of LI, and snow for inland areas. Disappointing, but not surprising. One huge difference for the areas that do snow, is that the snowpack will be around for a while given the arctic blast on the heels of the snow. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

As an example, the 12Z AIFS has EWR above freezing boundary layer until about 00Z on Monday.  The GFS is similar.  

 

Makes no sense though based on GFS track, GFS has N'ly winds and a T/Td at EWR of 32/24 when snow moves in, would probably be down to 29 degrees pretty fast and never move from there

[RockawayRowdies]

 

sign me up.

[NorthShoreWx]

9 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

As an example, the 12Z AIFS has EWR above freezing boundary layer until about 00Z on Monday.  The GFS is similar.  

 

Difficult to interpolate that chart, but it looks more like just after 18z.  Plus it's the boundary layer.  If it's snowing above, it'll be snowing there.  A sounding would be better.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Brings back memories of yore. Rain for most of LI, and snow for inland areas. Disappointing, but not surprising. One huge difference for the areas that do snow, is that the snowpack will be around for a while given the arctic blast on the heels of the snow. 

100% growing up it was always snow will be north and west of the Merritt parkway and 287. Never failed.

[MJO812]

Euro AI

[SnowGoose69]

God those are ballsy watch areas I have to say.  If the EPS is even 50% right most of those are going to end up being dropped entirely.

[Rmine1]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

100% growing up it was always snow will be north and west of the Merritt parkway and 287. Never failed.

History is about to repeat itself. Of course I’ll be staring at the rain, trying to convince myself that I see some flakes mixing in.

[Roger Smith]

Is there any easy answer to the question, what is the difference between an "A.I." weather model and the regular models? At first glance, it would see that all weather models are "A.I."