Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[winterwx21]

So much evidence that the RGEM is way overdone. Hopefully it will start correcting on the 18z run. 

[BoulderWX]

Expecting 2-4 here in Morris County and thinking 1-3 for NYC as it will take a little longer for accumulation to start. 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No one is getting more than 6 or less than 2 from this.

This is the official forecast, outlier models need to be ignored.

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Does this look like a cold pattern to you in the East?

 

Obviously not but that's not what I said. I just don't accept any pattern two weeks out, warm or cold. I can hope this is wrong. It wouldn't be the first time. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

2-4 is a good call right now

this is the call of every network.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Obviously not but that's not what I said. I just don't accept any pattern two weeks out, warm or cold. I can hope this is wrong. It wouldn't be the first time. 

and thats in February anyway, not in January.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m going down with this ship. The EURO/EPS is not going to be off by over 100 miles with less than 3 days to go. I’m sorry

But do you think it's amounts are too low? The other day you seemed more enthused about a higher impact event

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Disagree. There will alot of 6-8s and 0-2s

doubt it, the storm is a quick mover no time for 6-8 and we'll be cold enough for everyone to get at least 2.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

But do you think it's amounts are too low? The other day you seemed more enthused about a higher impact event

I was because of that one burp, rouge 6z EURO run but since then I’ve altered my view. I never for one second believed that rain was on the table. It was either a hit or east/OTS and a minor event in my mind. I’m thinking 2-3, 2-4, which I’m sure none of you will be upset about given how this has gone since November here

Edit: @Allsnow EPS hasn’t budged one iota. Mean: 2-3 inches area wide

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It has in the past . Quite a battle we have right now.

Jan 2015?

[kat5hurricane]

Why does it have to be one model wrong or the other? More than likely the actual solution will fall somewhere in the middle.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I was because of that one burp, rouge 6z EURO run but since then I’ve altered my view. I never for one second believed that rain was on the table. It was either a hit or east/OTS and a minor event in my mind. I’m thinking 2-3, 2-4, which I’m sure none of you will be upset about given how this has gone since November here

4 would feel like a HECS

[vegan_edible]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I was because of that one burp, rouge 6z EURO run but since then I’ve altered my view. I never for one second believed that rain was on the table. It was either a hit or east/OTS and a minor event in my mind. I’m thinking 2-3, 2-4, which I’m sure none of you will be upset about given how this has gone since November here

hard agree. sensible post. thank you

[psv88]

Quite the model spread. 
 

Given the euros record this winter I have to lean on it. GFS has been horrific. Ukie and euro are similar, so I’m thinking 2-4” area wide, few lucky places sniff 6”

[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

EPS mean is east of 06z 

 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

If you think youre gonna get rain (a distinct possibility), then maybe take a break from this thread if its bothering you that much lol. There are those IN THIS SUBFORUM that cant reasonably expect snow. Whine somewhere else for the love of god lol

 

[Allsnow]

The idv eps members mainly have the snow axis over 95 

 

one member looks like the cmc 

[greenmtnwx]

32 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

No way I'm tossing the euro this close over the rgem an CMC. It may be a little too far east but I trust it wayyyyy more then the Canadian camp.  Giving even the euro ai is similar to the euro. I think 2-4 City East an 4-8 NW of 287

If you were going with the euro, then that forecast doesn’t make a lot of sense. The euro is colder further east and weaker with generally better chance of accumulations in eastern areas and then on Long Island and north east of there. Although there may be better ratios, precip is limited northwest of 287.

[Rjay]

21 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Why does it have to be one model wrong or the other? More than likely the actual solution will fall somewhere in the middle.

 The differences between the cmc and euro/ukie are large. Gfs would be a compromise but it's a trash model. 

[psv88]

Not sure why people are tossing the euro. Especially when it has support from Ukie

[Allsnow]

Just now, psv88 said:

Not sure why people are tossing the euro. Especially when it has support from Ukie

It’s really only the rgem that gives us nothing 

[SnowGoose69]

Most of the CIPS analogs were light events, only one that is terribly close at 500 is 1/18-19/84 which was around 3-4 most of the area.  Many were inland snow events, but way inland because the whole trof axis in the east was much further west than it is here.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0119.php

 

 

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The idv eps members mainly have the snow axis over 95 

 

one member looks like the cmc 

Yep 

[EWR757]

The 12Z GFS has ~6" of snow for me in Somerset County, NJ beginning Sunday afternoon, about 0.49" water equiv.  The cold air advection begins Saturday evening and as of Sunday morning and beyond the atmosphere is below 0 C.   

I think elevation may play a significant role with precipitation type and accumulation, the GFS just 25 miles east at KEWR is above freezing in the lowest levels most of the event.

[North and West]

IMBY question…

Should I get the wagon ready to get into town for provisions to keep maw and paw warm out here in the vast interior?




.

[the_other_guy]

Trump inauguration and parade moved indoors for cold.

 

they really don’t like winter in DC do they? 

[the_other_guy]

Just now, North and West said:

IMBY question…

Should I get the wagon ready to get into town for provisions to keep maw and paw warm out here in the vast interior?




.

287 special!

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

The 12Z GFS has ~6" of snow for me in Somerset County, NJ beginning Sunday afternoon, about 0.49" water equiv.  The cold air advection begins Saturday evening and as of Sunday morning and beyond the atmosphere is below 0 C.   

I think elevation may play a significant role with precipitation type and accumulation, the GFS just 25 miles east at KEWR is above freezing in the lowest levels most of the event.

It’s not really elevation, it’s the storm’s track and speed that the cold air to the west can come in. It’s bone chilling cold right behind the storm. When the winds turn west temps should drop quick. 

[North and West]

Trump inauguration and parade moved indoors for cold.
 
they really don’t like winter in DC do they? 

Just saw that. In fairness, it’s going to be around 20° with a wind up to 20 mph, so that sounds unpleasant.


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