Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Of course you would, but you live in South Jersey. That's the same distance from NYC to Riverhead. So in other words, two completely different worlds meteorologically. 

The ukie gives everybody here a 3 to 5" event or greater. The cmc screws 75% of the posters here while giving greater amounts to inland areas. I'd rather see everyone win with a decent snowfall 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Shouldn't we be asking the questions that every degenerate gambler wants to know right now = how does this system effect the game down in Philly and are there any lake effect snows in Buffalo  

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Shouldn't we be asking the questions that every degenerate gambler wants to know right now = how does this system effect the game down in Philly and are there any lake effect snows in Buffalo  

Saquon and the tush push will be neutered. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

The ukie gives everybody here a 3 to 5" event or greater. The cmc screws 75% of the posters here while giving greater amounts to inland areas. I'd rather see everyone win with a decent snowfall 

I'd rather see what gives me the most snow. And so does everyone else here. I'm just being honest about it.

If I had to make a public forecast, 2-4" for the immediate coast and city looks likely. 4-6" North of 287 in Westchester and 4-6" West of the Hudson in the LHV. A bit less East of the city, with mostly rain for the South facing shore areas. Rain changing over to snow for the I-78 corridor. 1-3" for both of those areas. 6"+ possible well North and West.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'd rather see what gives me the most snow. And so does everyone else here. I'm just being honest about it.

If I had to make a public forecast, 2-4" for the immediate coast and city looks likely. 4-6" North of 287 in Westchester and 4-6" West of the Hudson in the LHV. A bit less East of the city, with mostly rain for the South facing shore areas. Rain changing over to snow for the I-78 corridor. 1-3" for both of those areas. 6"+ possible well North and West.

Nah I'll take less if it means more people cashing in

[hooralph]

57 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Out of area, but would be historic next week.

 

1899 says hi.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The next storm never had a chance of making it up this way. This storm reinforces the block and brings the arctic high in behind it. There's a chance at something this time next week before the pattern completely breaks down. We could reach 60 degrees before the end of the month as a southeast ridge develops and the pattern supports cutters.

Let's actually see 45 before we start talking about 60. Who knows what two weeks down the road brings let's concentrate on the next week. 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'd rather see what gives me the most snow. And so does everyone else here. I'm just being honest about it.

If I had to make a public forecast, 2-4" for the immediate coast and city looks likely. 4-6" North of 287 in Westchester and 4-6" West of the Hudson in the LHV. A bit less East of the city, with mostly rain for the South facing shore areas. Rain changing over to snow for the I-78 corridor. 1-3" for both of those areas. 6"+ possible well North and West.

you don't know shit about the geography of this area, if the city is getting 2-4 inches so is the south shore of Nassau county, they are way more similar than they are to the east end.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Let's actually see 45 before we start talking about 60. Who knows what two weeks down the road brings let's concentrate on the next week. 

Yeah he doesn't know what he's talking about, as usual.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'd rather see what gives me the most snow. And so does everyone else here. I'm just being honest about it.

If I had to make a public forecast, 2-4" for the immediate coast and city looks likely. 4-6" North of 287 in Westchester and 4-6" West of the Hudson in the LHV. A bit less East of the city, with mostly rain for the South facing shore areas. Rain changing over to snow for the I-78 corridor. 1-3" for both of those areas. 6"+ possible well North and West.

No one is getting more than 6 or less than 2 from this.

[Allsnow]

So far nothing to different on the euro. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

So far nothing to different on the euro. 

And when the euro holds serve then what?  Pretty confusing situation.  

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Let's actually see 45 before we start talking about 60. Who knows what two weeks down the road brings let's concentrate on the next week. 

Does this look like a cold pattern to you in the East?

 

[NJwx85]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No one is getting more than 6 or less than 2 from this.

Orographically enhanced lift.

[snowman19]

Just now, Allsnow said:

So far nothing to different on the euro. 

I don’t give a hoot how “consistent” the RGEM, CMC and the Garbage Forecasting System are, they are way too far west IMO. They can absolutely be consistently wrong. It’s possible even the UKMET and ICON are a bit too far west. The regular 12K NAM is probably out to lunch based on what the 3K just did

[MJO812]

Euro is still weak and east

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No one is getting more than 6 or less than 2 from this.

Disagree. There will alot of 6-8s and 0-2s

[jm1220]

Just now, snowman19 said:

I don’t give a hoot how “consistent” the RGEM, CMC and the Garbage Forecasting System are, they are way too far west IMO. They can absolutely be consistently wrong. It’s possible even the UKMET and ICON are a bit too far west. The regular 12K NAM is probably out to lunch based on what the 3K just did

Well-hope you’re right 

[Rjay]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro is still weak and east

And cold

[snowman19]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro is still weak and east

Call me crazy and you guys can rip me apart for it if I’m wrong, but I’m not betting against the EURO and EPS this close in

[MJO812]

[anthonyweather]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is still weak and east

1Mb stronger then 6z, with slightly more precip….

[Stormlover74]

Just now, anthonyweather said:

1Mb stronger then 6z, with slightly more precip….

It's basically held 4 straight runs with just minor changes

[Franklin0529]

No way I'm tossing the euro this close over the rgem an CMC. It may be a little too far east but I trust it wayyyyy more then the Canadian camp.  Giving even the euro ai is similar to the euro. I think 2-4 City East an 4-8 NW of 287

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's basically held 4 straight runs with just minor changes

It’ll be funny to see which either Euro or CMC ends up face planting. Hundreds of mile difference with 60hrs to go. 

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's basically held 4 straight runs with just minor changes

Minor minuscule windshield wiper effect changes on the EURO/EPS for run after run. Despite the little changes, it’s been basically 2-3 inches area wide the entire time 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Minor minuscule windshield wiper effect changes on the EURO/EPS for run after run. Despite the little changes, it’s been basically 2-3 inches area wide the entire time 

I’m going with the euro 

it’s been deadly this winter inside 5 days 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Minor minuscule windshield wiper effect changes on the EURO/EPS for run after run. Despite the little changes, it’s been basically 2-3 inches area wide the entire time 

2-4 is a good call right now

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m going to other the euro 

it’s been deadly this winter inside 5 days 

I’m going down with this ship. The EURO/EPS is not going to be off by over 100 miles with less than 3 days to go. I’m sorry

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I’m going down with this ship. The EURO/EPS is not going to be off by over 100 miles with less than 3 days to go. I’m sorry

It has in the past . Quite a battle we have right now.