Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why are you so cautious ? Just enjoy model tracking and hope for the best.

He lives on Long Island where an event like this is more borderline, so there's reason to be cautious. 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It's a bit troublesome to me that the NAM is so weak with development. I think it's because it's quite a bit less amped up than even the 12z GFS. Usually in this type of setup the NAM would be showing a coastal hugger. It's completely on its own and the rest of the modeling has been fairly consistent so I'm largely tossing it, but it's still possible that things don't get going quickly enough.

I would think the NAM being so much less amped is a good sign that the RGEM is off with being so amped, so to me that's good news. 

[Stormlover74]

Cmc slightly better than rgem 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

I’m expecting rain until 3-5 pm Sunday, then transition to snow out here. 

a west to east kind of transition? Maybe somewhat like December 2002 in that respect.

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc slightly better than rgem 

Not really. 

[ineedsnow]

[snywx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Classic interior event on the CMC/RGEM

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

As of now there's definitely a chance of rain particularly east of I95.  We'll see how it shakes out though over the next 24 hours.  

I think we can pull out a December 2002 kind of scenario.

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc slightly better than rgem 

If the cmc is right allsnow would have to change his name to allrain. 

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I would think the NAM being so much less amped is a good sign that the RGEM is off with being so amped, so to me that's good news. 

Not really, because the NAM beyond 48hrs is historically over amped. That's why it normally overblows totals and then gradually corrects inside of 36hrs.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we can pull out a December 2002 kind of scenario.

That was a deepening noreaster that brought cold air in and a change to snow. 

[NJwx85]

Out of area, but would be historic next week.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That was a deepening noreaster that brought cold air in and a change to snow. 

Isn't that what's happening here too?

 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

If the cmc is right allsnow would have to change his name to allrain. 

Let’s rain then watch Louisiana double our YTD snowfall next week 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

If the cmc is right allsnow would have to change his name to allrain. 

what about allmix?

[NJwx85]

12Z GFS has a high of 15 in Washington DC on Monday after 6-8" on Sunday, slightly warmer here. Going to be a strategical nightmare.

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Not really, because the NAM beyond 48hrs is historically over amped. That's why it normally overblows totals and then gradually corrects inside of 36hrs.

But that's my point. The fact that the historically over amped NAM isn't over amped right now could be a sign that the RGEM is way off and rain isn't as much of a concern. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

But that's my point. The fact that the historically over amped NAM isn't over amped right now could be a sign that the RGEM is way off and rain isn't as much of a concern. 

whats the NAVY model saying?

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

But that's my point. The fact that the historically over amped NAM isn't over amped right now could be a sign that the RGEM is way off and rain isn't as much of a concern. 

Or a sign the NAM needs to be taken out behind the woodshed.  

[Snowlover11]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why are you so cautious ? Just enjoy model tracking and hope for the best.

Enjoy your .5” of slush.

[BxEngine]

If you think youre gonna get rain (a distinct possibility), then maybe take a break from this thread if its bothering you that much lol. There are those IN THIS SUBFORUM that cant reasonably expect snow. Whine somewhere else for the love of god lol

[winterwx21]

Just now, Rjay said:

Or a sign the NAM needs to be taken out behind the woodshed.  

Haha. Yeah, either one. Either the NAM or RGEM is gonna be embarrassed here. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Haha. Yeah, either one. Either the NAM or RGEM is gonna be embarrassed here. 

The nam should already be as it had nothing as recently as last night

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

If you think youre gonna get rain (a distinct possibility), then maybe take a break from this thread. There are those IN THIS SUBFORUM that cant reasonably expect snow. Whine somewhere else. 

Go move to Orange County you grump

[BxEngine]

Just now, Rjay said:

Go move to Orange County you grump

Grab a map. Still in our subforum. Lol

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Enjoy your .5” of slush.

Not going to happen.  These arctic fronts stay offshore.  Rgem and cmc are wrong here. 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't that what's happening here too?

 

I guess a weaker version. That was a bombing low and very little to no snow expected for the city. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Haha. Yeah, either one. Either the NAM or RGEM is gonna be embarrassed here. 

My money is on the nam. It's a garbage model and doesn't have a clue on this one. 

[Rjay]

Just now, BxEngine said:

Grab a map. Still in our subforum. Lol

Lmao I know. I meant they're probably going to get a lot of snow.  

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

My money is on the nam. It's a garbage model and doesn't have a clue on this one. 

They could also both be wrong and the gfs/icon/ukie be more correct