Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Early thoughts on the rgem is that it looks identical to 06z 

Going to be a hair north of 06z. It’s been consistent 

[Stormlover74]

Rgem still amped

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Either the rgem or AI gonna fail miserably. Both have not moved much in days. 

AI has been bumping nw little by little over the last few days

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Going to be a hair north of 06z. It’s been consistent 

Which makes a huge difference near the rs line

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to be a hair north of 06z. It’s been consistent 

Over central nj

 

yikes 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem still amped

Rgem has a 995mb low west of Dover, DE lol 

[Rjay]

And we have people posting it can't rain

[jm1220]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Over central nj

 

yikes 

If that’s the case it’s a washout from the city east and maybe even to the Tappan Zee. Disaster. Hopefully it’s wrong but we’re at the stage where we want it to start moving east. Either the Euro or Canadian will fall flat on its face, no compromise here. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, jm1220 said:

If that’s the case it’s a washout from the city east and maybe even to the Tappan Zee. Disaster. Hopefully it’s wrong but we’re at the stage where we want it to start moving east. Either the Euro or Canadian will fall flat on its face, no compromise here. 

This depiction would be ok for NW NJ, NW CT and past tapanzee bridge 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If that’s the case it’s a washout from the city east and maybe even to the Tappan Zee. Disaster. Hopefully it’s wrong but we’re at the stage where we want it to start moving east. Either the Euro or Canadian will fall flat on its face, no compromise here. 

If the gfs follows I'd say many here are screwed

[psv88]

yikes. Todays runs will be telling 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This depiction would be ok for NW NJ, NW CT and past tapanzee bridge 

994mb rolling over @Allsnow's house.  I'm sure he'll stay @Allsnowtho.

[TJW014]

There's the inevitable shift northwest that always happens

[EastonSN+]

It's only the ICON so not too much weight but bumped NW again.

 

[snywx]

RGEM is locked in. Big time snows from Sussex up into Orange & points NE. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If the gfs follows I'd say many here are screwed

Agree, if we see a big shift west from other models the fat lady’ll start tuning up. 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

yikes. Todays runs will be telling 

I knew I shouldn't have gotten my pack boots out of storage. This has cold rain written all over it for Middlesex Co NJ and east of the NJTPK. Seen it a hundred times. It's why I said yesterday I'd hold my horses. Anyway, I could do with a good washing away of all this interminable salt,which they are laying down already due to the dusting last night.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, snywx said:

RGEM is locked in. Big time snows from Sussex up into Orange & points NE. 

Hope CMC, which aligns with RGEM is correct on the next storm too as we get a moderate event.

[jm1220]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

I knew I shouldn't have gotten my pack boots out of storage. This has cold rain written all over it for Middlesex Co NJ and east of the NJTPK. Seen it a hundred times. It's why I said yesterday I'd hold my horses. Anyway, I could do with a good washing away of all this interminable salt,which they are laying down already due to the dusting last night.

I said it before-would fit the winter theme to a T if in the 48 hours it’s warm enough we get a coastal hugger mostly rain then back to suppressed crap. 

[pstar3182]

Ocean is hanging out in the low 40s. Coastal will be toasty. 

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's only the ICON so not too much weight but bumped NW again.

 

ICON is a decent hit for the NYC area. If we get a compromise between the ampted RGEM and suppressed NAM we'll be looking good. Still hard to believe that the RGEM will be right since it is all alone, but you never know for sure. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

ICON is a decent hit for the NYC area. If we get a compromise between the ampted RGEM and suppressed NAM we'll be looking good. Still hard to believe that the RGEM will be right since it is all alone, but you never know for sure. 

We'll know in 30 minutes if the gfs makes another nw jump. If so I'd say the rest of the models will slowly follow the rgem.  The thing is even if the gfs stays similar to 6z we can't rule out the rgem

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

ICON is a decent hit for the NYC area. If we get a compromise between the ampted RGEM and suppressed NAM we'll be looking good. Still hard to believe that the RGEM will be right since it is all alone, but you never know for sure. 

It hasn’t really budged. We’re at the point where you have to weigh it somewhat. And GFS did go NW at 6z. We’ll see soon enough what the overall trend is. If we see models lurch NW at 12z we’ll know where this is going. 

[winterwx21]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hope CMC, which aligns with RGEM is correct on the next storm too as we get a moderate event.

The cold air push looks too strong for the snow event to make it up here on Wednesday. CMC is probably wrong on that. 

[kat5hurricane]

The Rgem still being amped is concerning, getting into the range where it's becoming more reliable and I still can't get out of my head that Forky was leaning towards the rain solution.

[NJwx85]

12z RGEM is mostly snow, and heavy just to the NW of NYC proper. This is one of those storms where it could be ripping snow on the Palisades Parkway and raining in midtown. But even in this scenario, mostly everyone would flip to a burst of heavy snow at the end except for the far East end.

 

[Rjay]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

We'll know in 30 minutes if the gfs makes another nw jump. If so I'd say the rest of the models will slowly follow the rgem.  The thing is even if the gfs stays similar to 6z we can't rule out the rgem

I don't think this ends up as far west as the rgem but the southeastern half of the sub is in trouble if the modeling (minus the European products and the shitty nam) is accurate.  

[Brasiluvsnow]

This is great that we have something to finally track that is NOT a trace to an inch - that said I wish the event was NOT over 48 hours away from happening - track on my fiends and weather models do me a solid = don't shift any farther west 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

I don't think this ends up as far west as the rgem but the southeastern half of the sub is in trouble if the modeling (minus the European products and the shitty nam) is accurate.  

It’s gonna rain on us isn’t it rjay 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We'll know in 30 minutes if the gfs makes another nw jump. If so I'd say the rest of the models will slowly follow the rgem.  The thing is even if the gfs stays similar to 6z we can't rule out the rgem

Even if the other models slowly trend towards the RGEM, I would think our area is far enough to the NW to be ok. That would be more of a problem for the coast. The RGEM would have to be competely right for our area to have a problem. We have enough wiggle room on the other models. But as I said, you never know for sure. We're not completely out of the woods.