Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

if you don’t mind me asking, why are you going so low? I think this could be a 3 to 6 inch storm. Maybe more

Certainly could be but I’d be more comfortable with 3-6 if things look that way tonight on most models. Also it’s for the immediate metro, it’s higher N&W with better ratios.

[the_other_guy]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The reason there is trepidation is forky stated yesterday that this could easily be rain.

look, you guys want Miller A’s and coastal storms. This is part of it.

 

there is a reason why New York City had such a low snowfall average before the real effects of climate change kicked in. to get a major storm in New York City you’re always on the edge of a rain snow line because of the warm Atlantic and the nature of the coastline.

 

you look at places like Raleigh or Atlanta and they get these periods of prolonged ice because cold air gets trapped in. It’s almost impossible to do in New York City. Off the top of my head I remember it in 1994 to kick off that brutal winter.

I also remember it on Valentine’s Day in 2007. 

We live in an area where it’s either going to snow or it’s going to rain and the difference is not that much.

 

this was masked in the 2000s and 2010s when the storms got so large because of climate change that they just pulled enough cold air in and you had Long Island getting 2-3 feet of snow. I grew up on Eastern Long Island, that isn’t normal…but if you hung around for that 15 year period you thought it was.

 

So basically ride the wave with this one and hope the West train stops.

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

What did the city get in the storm last Feb, I think 2/13? I had 7” in that one. 

Around 3

[JonClaw]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

I also remember it on Valentine’s Day in 2007. 

I like calling that one the "Silica Gel" storm. So much accumulated graupel!

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Around 3

3.2"

[Stormlover74]

[Allsnow]

Euro AI looked great at 06z 

 

very locked in for days now 

[Stormlover74]

Nam looks showery 

[Stormlover74]

3k Nam much more consolidated 

[Rjay]

[Rjay]

This is what you get when you click on the "range" button lol 

 

[allgame830]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

3k Nam much more consolidated 

Post!

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Post!

End of its range but it looks identical to 06z euro 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

there's a zero percent chance of rain on Sunday, it's going to be ALL SNOW.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is what you get when you click on the "range" button lol 

 

lol okay and people were getting upset over 1-3 inch forecasts

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

I like calling that one the "Silica Gel" storm. So much accumulated graupel!

then we had it again on St Patrick's Day.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

look, you guys want Miller A’s and coastal storms. This is part of it.

 

there is a reason why New York City had such a low snowfall average before the real effects of climate change kicked in. to get a major storm in New York City you’re always on the edge of a rain snow line because of the warm Atlantic and the nature of the coastline.

 

you look at places like Raleigh or Atlanta and they get these periods of prolonged ice because cold air gets trapped in. It’s almost impossible to do in New York City. Off the top of my head I remember it in 1994 to kick off that brutal winter.

I also remember it on Valentine’s Day in 2007. 

We live in an area where it’s either going to snow or it’s going to rain and the difference is not that much.

 

this was masked in the 2000s and 2010s when the storms got so large because of climate change that they just pulled enough cold air in and you had Long Island getting 2-3 feet of snow. I grew up on Eastern Long Island, that isn’t normal…but if you hung around for that 15 year period you thought it was.

 

So basically ride the wave with this one and hope the West train stops.

No, NYC consistently averaged between 30-35 inches of snow for the first 5 decades they kept snowfall records, the climate was entirely different back then and both January and February averaged temperatures in the 20s (and February was our coldest month.)

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn’t worry about anything the HRRR says. I’m not losing hope east of the city but we need these west trends to stop pronto. 

it's not going to rain here, I wouldn't take those models seriously that show that.

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

Yes I see it but the way I read it sounding tucked in.  If precip

arrives early could be rain but also means more tucked

precip won't start before around 2 pm

[psv88]

Even it rains it will transition to snow everywhere Sunday evening. For coast expect 2-4” of snow even out to the twin forks. North and west 3-6” look good. 
 

it’s coming 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It has precip early Sunday morning which no other models have and before the cold air has arrived

yeah, we can't take that seriously.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

it's not going to rain here, I wouldn't take those models seriously that show that.

Could definitely rain especially at the onset

[LibertyBell]

Just now, psv88 said:

Even it rains it will transition to snow everywhere Sunday evening. For coast expect 2-4” of snow even out to the twin forks. North and west 3-6” look good. 
 

it’s coming 

yeah and it will snow until 2 am, so it would be really difficult not to get at least 3 inches.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Could definitely rain especially at the onset

I mean anything that falls after 2 pm, it's going to be nice to see those temperatures fall hour by hour.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah and it will snow until 2 am, so it would be really difficult not to get at least 3 inches.

Forecast low Sunday night will be 18 even out here in Suffolk. I really like Upton call for 3”

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's not going to rain here, I wouldn't take those models seriously that show that.

As of now there's definitely a chance of rain particularly east of I95.  We'll see how it shakes out though over the next 24 hours.  

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Even it rains it will transition to snow everywhere Sunday evening. For coast expect 2-4” of snow even out to the twin forks. North and west 3-6” look good. 
 

it’s coming 

I think we’ll be fine as long as the low stays SE of the island. As always if we see it track over NJ we’ll have a problem. The cold air press/fast flow will hopefully nudge it east. 

[psv88]

Just now, Rjay said:

As of now there's definitely a chance of rain particularly east of I95.  We'll see how it shakes out though over the next 24 hours.  

I’m expecting rain until 3-5 pm Sunday, then transition to snow out here. 

[Allsnow]

Early thoughts on the rgem is that it looks identical to 06z 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Early thoughts on the rgem is that it looks identical to 06z 

Either the rgem or AI gonna fail miserably. Both have not moved much in days.