Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[BoulderWX]

RGEM would be a heartbreaker. Only few NW suburbs get into the snows while almost all of PA sees over 7” with many at 10-15”. 
 

It’s as possible as any other solution 

[TJW014]

Reggie with a rainstorm for NYC with the briefest changeover to snow for an hour at the end. 

[jm1220]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

RGEM would be a heartbreaker. Only few NW suburbs get into the snows while almost all of PA sees over 7” with many at 10-15” lol. 

Would be fitting for this winter though. Suppressed garbage, dry windy cold, then on 2 days where it spikes above freezing a coastal hugger all rain rushes through, then back to even worse dry windy cold.

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Luckily it's the long range rgem. 

cmc showing the same thing basically

[Allsnow]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

cmc showing the same thing basically

They will show the same thing because the cmc is a ext of the rgem 

[Snowlover11]

It would be fitting if the RGEM is right.

[wxman]

For the RGEM to be right the euro would need to be wildly wrong on an 84 hour forecast.  If the RGEM showed snow and the euro showed rain at that range, which would you pick?

[Allsnow]

Just now, wxman said:

For the RGEM to be right the euro would need to be wildly wrong on an 84 hour forecast.  If the RGEM showed snow and the euro showed rain at that range, which would you pick?

Let’s not forget the nam is completely out to sea 

[Allsnow]

Icon with the better tpv press which will bump it east this run 

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

They will show the same thing because the cmc is a ext of the rgem 

Yes, but it's still a global as opposed to a meso and the rgem is pretty good unlike the nam.  

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

It would be fitting if the RGEM is right.

I don't think it will be right since it's a big outlier, we'll have to see what the better models say later but it definitely would fit this winter's fail theme to a T.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yes, but it's still a global as opposed to a meso and the rgem is pretty good unlike the nam.  

Inside 48 hours I will take the rgem seriously 

[MJO812]

Icon is no rgem at all

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yes, but it's still a global as opposed to a meso and the rgem is pretty good unlike the nam.  

NAM is absolutely horrendous. It can make a 180 turnaround within 24 hrs of an event. It needs to be retired.

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I don't think it will be right since it's a big outlier, we'll have to see what the better models say later but it definitely would fit this winter's fail theme to a T.

Icon is way east. It looks like the 18z euro 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Icon is no rgem at all

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

Looks like a nice outcome actually.

[BoulderWX]

ICON takes a step back from its 18z run with a further east solution but I’d happily take the 2-3” it’s advertising 

[MJO812]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Looks like a nice outcome actually.

 

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Let’s not forget the nam is completely out to sea 

Yeah long range NAM is terrible, but the fact that it's THAT far out to sea is a pretty good hint that the RGEM is way off. I'm not gonna worry about the Canadian models since they're alone with a wildly different solution than all other models. 

[brooklynwx99]

the RGEM is an outlier for now. i'd leave it at that

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I don't think it will be right since it's a big outlier, we'll have to see what the better models say later but it definitely would fit this winter's fail theme to a T.

I don't think it's right either but it hasn't moved in several model runs, neither has the cmc. We will see I guess. 

[kat5hurricane]

I would not discount the RGEM teamed with Forky thinking rain.

[winterwx21]

9 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

ICON takes a step back from its 18z run with a further east solution but I’d happily take the 2-3” it’s advertising 

I'd be happy with the ICON solution too. 3 inches would seem like a pretty good event after all the half inch to 1 inch events we've had this winter. 

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I would not discount the RGEM teamed with Forky thinking rain.

It's an outlier so I would discount it.

And honestly with the rgem and some of the east solutions we're in a good spot 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's an outlier so I would discount it.

It's been steady if not trending even further west, and its outcome makes sense if the S/W is sharp and trough orientation isn't favorable for the coast. I wouldn't discount it but I'd note it as an outlier and hope other models don't trend towards it.

[kat5hurricane]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's an outlier so I would discount it.

And honestly with the rgem and some of the east solutions we're in a good spot 

I'm not saying it's likely but I wouldn't discount it either. We've seen scenarios where last minute shifts from a consensus move to a model that wasn't consensus, it's rare but it's happened before. With that said, a blend of the models is a reasonable forecast which puts us in a decent spot.

[MJO812]

[Franklin0529]

GFS won't look like the rgem

[Rjay]

0z goofus is a nice snowstorm