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Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
Just now, jm1220 said:

If we have the better 500mb look aloft I’m not so worried about QPF since we should have better lift and banding. Although this will be out in a hurry so amounts will be limited that way. This won’t be a major snow event but a 3-6” type event would be great for all. Hopefully we can edge it up for some to get 7-8”. Last thing we want is more useless dry windy cold with bare ground. 

The euro is currently the weakest model and gives us 2-3. The rgem is probably to far west and the euro is to far east…. @bluewave is probably correct with the compromise solution 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Great trends today and some thoughts looking ahead.  Nice to see the NWS and other forecasters are now all playing up the snowfall potential as expected based on those trends, with the NWS now calling for a general 2-4" snowfall for everyone along and NW of 95 through 7 pm Sunday (noting there will be more to come) except maybe just 1-2" towards the coast (especially SENJ), but also noting that more is possible than that and less if the Euro is right, plus they acknowledge the risk of mixing/rain up to 95 as shown on the CMC.Lee Goldberg also has just about everyone at 2-4", with 1-2" south of Toms River and for far NW areas (Poconos/Catskills), but he also noted that there will likely be some 4-6" amounts, most likely from NYC on NE-ward but maybe even back towards CNJ.

Precip looks like it will start by 1 pm towards Philly/SNJ (where game impacts are looking much more likely than yesterday) and by 3-4 pm in CNJ/NYC and will continue with temps likely falling into the 20s and precip going until 1-3 am Monday. Whatever accumulates will be with us through next week with the bitter cold coming.  In addition, as many have discussed, there's an increased likelihood of snow ratios >10:1 with the snowier solutions, which are more likely to have good lift/supersaturation/crystal growth in the DGZ, as well as not suffering from column melting/aggregation with very cold column (except for CMC style outcomes where precip type is in question or at least falling snow could be very wet and lower ratio).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off


National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
354 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2025
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

From here, forecast guidance varies greatly and ultimately will
determine what will occur Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. If the
track of the low is close enough to the coast, a large portion of
the region is likely to observe accumulating snowfall (similar to
what the 12Z/GFS depicts). If the track of the low is suppressed
further south and east (similar to the 12Z/ECMWF), then accumulating
snow may only be confined to coastal areas. Whereas if the track of
the low, hugs the immediate coastline, then the most significant
snows will be focused north and west (depicted by the 12Z/Canadian).
Regardless of the variance in global guidance, have seen an increase
in overall QPF values and in snow probs. Thus, there is an increase
in forecaster confidence that accumulating snow is on the table
Sunday afternoon/evening especially since cold air will be
advecting in from the northwest. So with this being said, the
greatest potential for higher accumulations are for areas along
the I-95 corridor and points north and west where the initial
forecast calls for 2-4" of snow through 00Z Monday. Lesser
amounts upwards of 1-2" are forecast near coastal areas through
the same timeframe. Obviously, a lot can change over the next
60-72 hours as we obtain more hi-res/short range forecast
guidance and storm total snowfall covers the `full duration` of
the event, so stay tuned for the latest details to the forecast
over the coming days!

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TJW014

TJW014

Posted
Posted

I'm going to be the Debbie Downer I am and say that I expect this to be more of a rain event than a snow event here. The last place I want to be is already flirting with the R/S line 3 days out, especially given the inevitable final adjustment northwest that we always get. 

I fully expect a changeover to snow as the low pulls away but not after 85% of the precipitation fell as rain. 

This will probably be one of those Congrats Freehold Twp events

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wdrag

wdrag

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No second thread for the 22nd, but just so you know another pretty decent short wave at the bottom of the departing polar vortex moving ne of the Great Lakes will whip through here.  For now, not worth a fringe outlook but will revisit tomorrow morning.

I'm more interested in the 24th which will clearly have backing flow up the east coast as the PV moves to Baffin Bay Area.  Not starting a thread for that till more consensus and its 8 days away but it looks fairly juicy to me.  Will recheck Friday as time allows.

 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Does AI have temps? Like how do we know that's all snow?

It does and there's a link to 850's only below. However, one of the Mets in the MA forum familiar with its verifications said not to rely on them literally fwiw.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501161800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501190600

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It does and there's a link to 850's only below. However, one of the Mets in the MA forum familiar with its verifications said not to rely on them literally fwiw.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501161800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501190600

Thanks!

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  • wdrag changed the title to Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

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