Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[Allsnow]

Looks like a better tpv press on the 18z gfs so far 

[Allsnow]

Should be east of 12z 

[Allsnow]

Yup. East. 

[Allsnow]

Tpv 

[Allsnow]

[uofmiami]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like a better tpv press on the 18z gfs so far 

TPV press is the ballgame for setup, just a question of how much press there is.

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is a nice hit. stronger vort and lower downstream heights help press things south a bit

[Allsnow]

Just now, uofmiami said:

TPV press is the ballgame for setup, just a question of how much press there is.

The 18z gfs is exactly what we want 

[jayyy]

18z gfs nice hit for nyc metro. 7-9” on kuchera

[Nibor]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. East. 

Looks roughly the same to me. There seems to be 2 lows or a broad SLP. 

[wdrag]

New thread delayed til 7P. Hope that’s. It a problem 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS looks good. more PVA with a better jet

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The 18z gfs is exactly what we want 

The TPV press makes an amplified solution less likely and that's where the GFS/Euro are at with room to trend west. 

[weatherpruf]

This is Sunday night? It's only Thursday. You guys had me for a sec....there's a lot to go wrong yet. Seen it over and over. I'd hold my horses for a day or two. Let's see what happens. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time this season where a compromise between the more amped and suppressed solutions puts us in the sweet spot for a change.

It’s the GFS but hopefully that’s exactly what we converge to.

[Allsnow]

Euro will be further west(considering the other guidance not shocked) but it will still be on the eastern envelope 

[Allsnow]

Euro not really budging 

[Allsnow]

18z euro 2-4 area wide. 
 

LI has the potential for 4+

[Allsnow]

Side note

 

18z euro gives New Orleans 4-5 inches 

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF is a bit better... sharper vort with more PVA

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Side note

 

18z euro gives New Orleans 4-5 inches

yeah to me that event is close to dead as far as coming up the coast.  I’ve been hitting the 73-89 drum on that for 3 days.  Canadian may have nailed this one up here but it’s gonna bomb I think on its idea down there 

[SnowGoose69]

We are still far out buy the Euro still tends to be too low on QPF in my mind on any system that’s entraining Atlantic or Gulf moisture.  It was the only model to accurately depict the snow in the MA two weeks ago because that was a rare case of a W-E moving storm where you weren’t entraining a ton of Atlantic moisture into it.  

[jm1220]

Good that other models aren’t pushing west like the RGEM. 

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

yeah to me that event is close to dead as far as coming up the coast.  I’ve been hitting the 73-89 drum on that for 3 days.  Canadian may have nailed this one up here but it’s gonna bomb I think on its idea down there 

Trough is way to positive for that to get anywhere near here next week. That’s definitely a congrats Deep South 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Good that other models aren’t pushing west like the RGEM. 

Eps ticked east this run. A little less qpf 

snow mean nyc 2

Li 2.5-3

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is maybe a hair drier but largely held serve. a solution like the RGEM is a pretty large west and amped outlier

[Allsnow]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is maybe a hair drier but largely held serve. a solution like the RGEM is a pretty large west and amped outlier

I don’t see one idv member that looks like the rgem 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps ticked east this run. A little less qpf 

snow mean nyc 2

Li 2.5-3

If we have the better 500mb look aloft I’m not so worried about QPF since we should have better lift and banding. Although this will be out in a hurry so amounts will be limited that way. This won’t be a major snow event but a 3-6” type event would be great for all. Hopefully we can edge it up for some to get 7-8”. Last thing we want is more useless dry windy cold with bare ground.