kat5hurricane Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks great, a bit nervous after forky mentioned could easily be rain. Agreed, his instinct is far more right than wrong even when it goes against consensus so that gives me real pause in dismissing the rain solution. There's still enough time for the models to overamp this too so I think the rain option should still be on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI Euro beefed up along the coast You are the man with the AIFS snow maps, so, please? If not out yet, it shows a general 0.3-0.5" of QPF with temps at about 32F to start for most but dropping into the 20s, so ratios could easily exceed 10:1 (3-5" at 10:1 or maybe 4-7" with good ratios) if we get good snow growth, given a likely cold column for most of the event. Verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Light snow in Morris County right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: Light snow in Morris County right now Wow. This storm has started earlier then anticipated 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Wow. This storm has started earlier then anticipated Well you know it always comes in earlier and leaves earlier than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Widely-spaced flakes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The eagles game might be impacted by this storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I like a quick 4-6" Sunday night into early Monday morning pretty much region wide. It could be slightly more than that if things play out perfectly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Plus he was using a h5 map from a op run off a model that has been too amped It was no better then a snow map the map i posted was the gfs 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Metasequoia said: I don't think Forky trolls. Some sass might get dispensed from time to time, though. LOL he admits that he trolls a lot. He literally has said many times that he's not genuine with a lot of the stuff he posts. Of course that doesn't mean that he isn't a good meteorologist though. Some of his posts are valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Snowing at white plains rn. Flurries here in the bx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Virga overhead so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Nam getting there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12z euro AI 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Just updated thread title Discussion-OBS minor-mdt 1-7" slippery impact 7-14 hr snowstorm mainly btwn Noon Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. Heaviest axis near or just inland I95. New thread for next unknown snow amount event with a large range from fringe 1" to at least moderate 1/22-early 1/24 begins about 530PM. Our 1/19 event that the NAM is trying to find for the first time in its 18z/16 cycle is fairly well produced now by all other modeling with the axis of greatest accumulation still a bit uncertain but seems to be shaping up near or just west of I95 to possibly as far northwest as I84. I added 7" in the title because I'm pretty sure we can see a stripe of 7" but where. C park????? may see its first 4" snowfall since 1/29/22 (thanks to our XMACIS experts). There should be some pretty good banding for a few hours near or after sundown Sunday, and for now seems to locate near or west of I95. Snow ratios should be a little higher in the colder air. You have the ensembles and we'll see how this works out. Had a bottom number 1". It's possible that the Island might have some melting and also a little rain so cant promise there, but this looks to me like we'll see snow everywhere, just how much. Above freezing temps I95 corridor eastward permit melting on contact during the afternoon I95 corridor and LI but after sundown, presuming its snowing, travel conditions can deteriorate rapidly. The good news is that Monday is our Martin Luther King holiday and Inauguration Day so traffic should be less. WPC midday significant snow map attached. The post events temps should still concentrate on the January thread. I'd like to see the 18z GFS regarding the second event which has a pretty good chance of getting fringe snowfall up here 22nd-23rd. That one wont thread til about 530 PM. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 12z euro AI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Icon going to be further west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Allsnow said: Icon going to be further west this run. Rgem same boat. More amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Rgem same boat. More amped Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 With the post-storm arctic air next week and fresh, significant snow cover the radiational cooling will be at it's maximum. especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with calm wind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Rgem same boat. More amped Yup, a washout from the city east. Icon not quite as bad but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, jm1220 said: Yup, a washout from the city east. Icon not quite as bad but close. Luckily they are low tier models. Gfs up next . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, jm1220 said: Yup, a washout from the city east. Icon not quite as bad but close. Close call. I still think it’s too amped but we will see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Luckily they are low tier models. Gfs up next . RGEM is not a low tier model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, SHELEG said: RGEM is not a low tier model it's a meso model at the end of its range. I wouldn't get too worked up over it unless it holds that solution for another day or two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, SHELEG said: RGEM is not a low tier model In the long range it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Close call. I still think it’s too amped but we will see Hopefully in 24 more hours we're converging on a snowy outcome for everyone. But it's thread the needle based on the wave spacing and trough orientation. There's no confluence/blocking to the north to nudge it east. I don't see this as a slam dunk moderate event that others seem to. Maybe this fast Pacific pattern can save us for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Rgem same boat. More amped Cutting it really close now. Forky must have some model that comes out before we see them. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully in 24 more hours we're converging on a snowy outcome for everyone. But it's thread the needle based on the wave spacing and trough orientation. There's no confluence/blocking to the north to nudge it east. I don't see this as a slam dunk moderate event that others seem to. Maybe this fast Pacific pattern can save us for once. Need the tpv to adjust south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Cutting it really close now. Forky must have some model that comes out before we see them. The Canadian models have been the warm/amped models. Everything else gives us all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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