MJO812 Posted Thursday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:41 PM 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro further east and not as amped cmc is out to lunch Gfs is now further west than euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted Thursday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:42 PM 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro further east and not as amped cmc is out to lunch Every model has trended closer to coast with more precip and the RGEM/CMC has been consistent for days with it's track. Just because the Euro is farther east doesn't make it right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:44 PM GEPS is wetter and a tick farther SE 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:45 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is now further west than euro lol You also have the tpv pressing down from the west which will limit the western movement 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:46 PM 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Every model has trended closer to coast with more precip and the RGEM/CMC has been consistent for days with it's track. Just because the Euro is farther east doesn't make it right. All we can say now it the cmc is on the western side of the goal post while the euro is the eastern side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted Thursday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:47 PM yikes the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Thursday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:52 PM 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro further east and not as amped cmc is out to lunch That’s the last thing I expected out of the EURO. It normally doesn’t flip flop like this less than 4 days out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:52 PM Todays euro keeps the mid week system off shore IT does have a big snowstorm around the 29th but that is way to far out to even track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:53 PM Just now, snowman19 said: That’s the last thing I expected out of the EURO. It normally doesn’t flip flop like this less than 4 days out It definitely didn’t do that with the most recent mid Atlantic snowstorm. Going to need a little more time to figure this one out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Thursday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:55 PM 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro further east and not as amped cmc is out to lunch A Couple days ago the CMC was showing rain even well to the NW, before it started to correct somewhat. We know that model has been way off. Not very likely that it's gonna rain Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:57 PM EPS is going to be NW of the OP. vort actually looks a bit better than it did at 06z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Thursday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:06 PM 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is going to be NW of the OP. vort actually looks a bit better than it did at 06z IMO if this busts it busts OTS and doesn’t become an inland runner. I think rain is off the table, I hate to disagree with Forky and Bluewave but I think it’s either a big snowstorm or a minor 1-2, 1-3 event as the options 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:07 PM yup, definitely continues the NW trend here 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Thursday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:09 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:14 PM " It will come down to nowcasting." There, i saved you all the trouble of having to mention this again. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:19 PM 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yup, definitely continues the NW trend here Eps members all look solid. out of the 51 members I count 2 that look like the cmc 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:20 PM Just now, Allsnow said: Eps members all look solid. out of the 51 members I count 2 that look like the cmc Definitely a lean west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Thursday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:22 PM 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is going to be NW of the OP. vort actually looks a bit better than it did at 06z Looks great, a bit nervous after forky mentioned could easily be rain. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted Thursday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:22 PM 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Definitely a lean west Euro OP we toss. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:32 PM Looks like things will become more active going forward. EPS has plenty of chances in the next two weeks 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:41 PM 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Definitely a lean west Geps for comparison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted Thursday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:43 PM 22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: " It will come down to nowcasting." There, i saved you all the trouble of having to mention this again. I understand the humor. My deadline for a general forecast is 48 hours before the start of any precipitation. If you need more time closer than that, you may as well nowcast. My forecasting days are shot. But as Jeff Berradelli would say, "The devil is in the details". I interpret this to mean between all the models and general synoptic setup, the clues are there to make an accurate forecast. Sometimes we ignore a simple thing like the positioning of the high pressure system or mid level temperatures... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Thursday at 06:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:44 PM 19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks great, a bit nervous after forky mentioned could easily be rain. The new EPS mean is 2-3 inches area wide. Even if that turns out to be correct, I don’t think anyone would be complaining 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Thursday at 06:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:53 PM 30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks great, a bit nervous after forky mentioned could easily be rain. Forky hates snow weenies and loves to troll. I doubt he really thinks it will be mostly rain Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:55 PM 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Forky hates snow weenies and loves to troll. I doubt he really thinks it will be mostly rain Sunday. Plus he was using a h5 map from a op run off a model that has been too amped It was no better then a snow map 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:55 PM 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: I agree with you. For an Arctic wave to be an inland runner like 1-17-94 there has to be enough spacing between the lows. The seasonal pattern this year and in recent years has been too many lows close together in the fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So if there is a risk my guess is that it will be too much suppression like the OP Euro with lows very close together and not rain like the CMC has. I mentioned that the CMC was the outlier in the 12z runs today. Great post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Thursday at 07:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:00 PM 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Forky hates snow weenies and loves to troll. I doubt he really thinks it will be mostly rain Sunday. His honest opinions can be valuable. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:02 PM 1 minute ago, Nibor said: His honest opinions can be valuable. Which can improve discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted Thursday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:07 PM 11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Forky hates snow weenies and loves to troll. I doubt he really thinks it will be mostly rain Sunday. I don't think Forky trolls. Some sass might get dispensed from time to time, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 07:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:32 PM AI Euro beefed up along the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now