MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 5:37 PM, Allsnow said: Euro further east and not as amped cmc is out to lunch Expand Gfs is now further west than euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 5:37 PM, Allsnow said: Euro further east and not as amped cmc is out to lunch Expand Every model has trended closer to coast with more precip and the RGEM/CMC has been consistent for days with it's track. Just because the Euro is farther east doesn't make it right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GEPS is wetter and a tick farther SE 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 5:41 PM, MJO812 said: Gfs is now further west than euro lol Expand You also have the tpv pressing down from the west which will limit the western movement 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 5:42 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: Every model has trended closer to coast with more precip and the RGEM/CMC has been consistent for days with it's track. Just because the Euro is farther east doesn't make it right. Expand All we can say now it the cmc is on the western side of the goal post while the euro is the eastern side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 yikes the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 5:37 PM, Allsnow said: Euro further east and not as amped cmc is out to lunch Expand That’s the last thing I expected out of the EURO. It normally doesn’t flip flop like this less than 4 days out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Todays euro keeps the mid week system off shore IT does have a big snowstorm around the 29th but that is way to far out to even track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 5:52 PM, snowman19 said: That’s the last thing I expected out of the EURO. It normally doesn’t flip flop like this less than 4 days out Expand It definitely didn’t do that with the most recent mid Atlantic snowstorm. Going to need a little more time to figure this one out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 5:37 PM, Allsnow said: Euro further east and not as amped cmc is out to lunch Expand A Couple days ago the CMC was showing rain even well to the NW, before it started to correct somewhat. We know that model has been way off. Not very likely that it's gonna rain Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 EPS is going to be NW of the OP. vort actually looks a bit better than it did at 06z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 5:57 PM, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is going to be NW of the OP. vort actually looks a bit better than it did at 06z Expand IMO if this busts it busts OTS and doesn’t become an inland runner. I think rain is off the table, I hate to disagree with Forky and Bluewave but I think it’s either a big snowstorm or a minor 1-2, 1-3 event as the options 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 yup, definitely continues the NW trend here 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 " It will come down to nowcasting." There, i saved you all the trouble of having to mention this again. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:07 PM, brooklynwx99 said: yup, definitely continues the NW trend here Expand Eps members all look solid. out of the 51 members I count 2 that look like the cmc 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:19 PM, Allsnow said: Eps members all look solid. out of the 51 members I count 2 that look like the cmc Expand Definitely a lean west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 5:57 PM, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is going to be NW of the OP. vort actually looks a bit better than it did at 06z Expand Looks great, a bit nervous after forky mentioned could easily be rain. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:20 PM, Allsnow said: Definitely a lean west Expand Euro OP we toss. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Looks like things will become more active going forward. EPS has plenty of chances in the next two weeks 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:20 PM, Allsnow said: Definitely a lean west Expand Geps for comparison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:14 PM, weatherpruf said: " It will come down to nowcasting." There, i saved you all the trouble of having to mention this again. Expand I understand the humor. My deadline for a general forecast is 48 hours before the start of any precipitation. If you need more time closer than that, you may as well nowcast. My forecasting days are shot. But as Jeff Berradelli would say, "The devil is in the details". I interpret this to mean between all the models and general synoptic setup, the clues are there to make an accurate forecast. Sometimes we ignore a simple thing like the positioning of the high pressure system or mid level temperatures... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:22 PM, EastonSN+ said: Looks great, a bit nervous after forky mentioned could easily be rain. Expand The new EPS mean is 2-3 inches area wide. Even if that turns out to be correct, I don’t think anyone would be complaining 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:22 PM, EastonSN+ said: Looks great, a bit nervous after forky mentioned could easily be rain. Expand Forky hates snow weenies and loves to troll. I doubt he really thinks it will be mostly rain Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:53 PM, winterwx21 said: Forky hates snow weenies and loves to troll. I doubt he really thinks it will be mostly rain Sunday. Expand Plus he was using a h5 map from a op run off a model that has been too amped It was no better then a snow map 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:44 PM, bluewave said: I agree with you. For an Arctic wave to be an inland runner like 1-17-94 there has to be enough spacing between the lows. The seasonal pattern this year and in recent years has been too many lows close together in the fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So if there is a risk my guess is that it will be too much suppression like the OP Euro with lows very close together and not rain like the CMC has. I mentioned that the CMC was the outlier in the 12z runs today. Expand Great post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:53 PM, winterwx21 said: Forky hates snow weenies and loves to troll. I doubt he really thinks it will be mostly rain Sunday. Expand His honest opinions can be valuable. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 7:00 PM, Nibor said: His honest opinions can be valuable. Expand Which can improve discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:53 PM, winterwx21 said: Forky hates snow weenies and loves to troll. I doubt he really thinks it will be mostly rain Sunday. Expand I don't think Forky trolls. Some sass might get dispensed from time to time, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 AI Euro beefed up along the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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