snowman19 Posted Thursday at 10:11 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:11 AM Good God the GFS sucks. Worst model in the history of mankind. Like seriously not even worth looking at it anymore. Frigging awful 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:21 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:21 AM 4 hours ago, RU848789 said: Argues for an Op outlier to some extent. Would be nice. 6z Euro coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:24 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:24 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:28 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:28 AM Gefs is now on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:31 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:31 AM Wow euro 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:32 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:32 AM Euro AI has been consistent 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 11:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:35 AM just a small shift in the consolidation of the vort leads to big changes on the ECMWF here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:37 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:37 AM Rgem is still amped up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:47 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:47 AM Upper teens to low 20s on the Euro during the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Thursday at 11:51 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:51 AM Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 11:56 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:56 AM Euro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Thursday at 11:57 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:57 AM Fingers crossed, hopefully the changes aloft are happening to get us a decent event. 2-5” may as well be a HECS this year. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:59 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:59 AM 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Fingers crossed, hopefully the changes aloft are happening to get us a decent event. 2-5” may as well be a HECS this year. We might get more than that. Let's see further runs. Like I said yesterday, these waves like to ramp up as we get closer to the event . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 11:59 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:59 AM Eps alps shifted west. Now a few inches for the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted Thursday at 12:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:02 PM 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Upper teens to low 20s on the Euro during the storm. I loooooove high ratio snows, nice potential here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Thursday at 12:13 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 12:13 PM Will make a decision on thread wording (probably removing doubts for Sunday evening) for 19-20 at 430P, and I see 00z/16 ECAI NOT mirroring the too fast 00z/16 EPS for the 22nd. That latter one still undecided but likely just northern fringe at worst here late 22 or 23. Beyond that on the bigger se USA threat, just not sure except WSSI-P is big on it being a large scale storm se USA up to NJ. Have a day -my last til 430 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 12:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:14 PM 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps alps shifted west. Now a few inches for the city. Euro snow mean for NYC is 2.3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 12:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:22 PM Can we sign for that 06z gfs run now? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted Thursday at 12:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:23 PM Both the Google Graphcast and ECMWF AIFS show about 4" for me Sunday starting mid afternoon. They have both been very good 4 days out this season. The verification data on the ECMWF website is clear, ML models are superior to numerical models in the medium range. Waiting for and looking at each new operational model run is enjoyable (it reminds me of my friends that trade penny stocks or make sports bets), but the practice is obsolete. Ensembles have been around a while, and MLs are just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 12:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:27 PM 3 minutes ago, EWR757 said: Both the Google Graphcast and ECMWF AIFS show about 4" for me Sunday starting mid afternoon. They have both been very good 4 days out this season. The verification data on the ECMWF website is clear, ML models are superior to numerical models in the medium range. Waiting for and looking at each new operational model run is enjoyable (it reminds me of my friends that trade penny stocks or make sports bets), but the practice is obsolete. Ensembles have been around a while, and MLs are just getting started. I would love to see the h5 scores on the AI model. It has locked into the Sunday event and hasn’t wavered 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Thursday at 12:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:32 PM 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Can we sign for that 06z gfs run now? I assume you're referring more to the 1/24 possible event not the 1/19 event, which is nice, but not spectacular for our area. I get it, but I'd way rather get snow like the Euro/AIFS are showing for 1/19 and then hope for something 5 days later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 01:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:38 PM 6z Euro AI ticked west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Thursday at 02:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:01 PM 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Wow euro This would be great let's keep it here. Thanks for posting the snow maps as well as the surface depiction maps, as they are very helpful. Great to see the models are starting to come closer together. Thermal profile review will start to come into play, hopefully the Canadian suite is a bit too West and warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 02:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:05 PM Euro AI is great for Sunday night bad news: dry cold for the rest of the month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:29 PM 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro AI is great for Sunday night bad news: dry cold for the rest of the month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:38 PM Long range Nam is not showing anything . Good news. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Thursday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:52 PM 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I've asked several times if there are snowmaps for the AIFS (they're not on Pivotal or TT, so one has to guess from temp/precip maps) and no replies, lol, so nice to see this map, thanks; wonder if WeatherBell has them. As this model has been performing quite well this winter, we might need you StormVista folks to post these maps. :>) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:55 PM 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I've asked several times if there are snowmaps for the AIFS (they're not on Pivotal or TT, so one has to guess from temp/precip maps) and no replies, lol, so nice to see this map, thanks; wonder if WeatherBell has them. As this model has been performing quite well this winter, we might need you StormVista folks to post these maps. :>) Weatherbell does not have them for the AI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Thursday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:04 PM 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: I would love to see the h5 scores on the AI model. It has locked into the Sunday event and hasn’t wavered Inside 5 days it's been right there with the euro. Says 6-10 it struggles 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 03:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:11 PM Icon coming in west of 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now