brooklynwx99 Posted Wednesday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:43 PM last time I checked, the event hasn't happened yet, so saying one model is correct or incorrect is kinda silly. but that's just me 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Wednesday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:51 PM Eps continues to trickle snowfall down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Thursday at 12:16 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:16 AM 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Figures when it shows snow for us it would be wrong haha oh well, just that type of winter Looking forward to my consolation coating gone in an hour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 12:26 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:26 AM 47 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: ehh, the setup is touchy and this is 4 days out. these waves generally like to trend NW as we get closer so hopefully we can reel a light to moderate event in Agree These negative epo fronts favor the coast so let's see in the upcoming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Thursday at 12:31 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:31 AM I completely messed up merging 2 storm threads. The system on Amex makes no sense. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted Thursday at 12:47 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:47 AM 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: I completely messed up merging 2 storm threads. The system on Amex makes no sense. You are forgiven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted Thursday at 01:03 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:03 AM I dont even know what day we are talking about not getting snow anymore. This thread… 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Thursday at 01:17 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:17 AM 13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I dont even know what day we are talking about not getting snow anymore. This thread… Sunday afternoon and night. Then a potential mid to late week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 01:17 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:17 AM 13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I dont even know what day we are talking about not getting snow anymore. This thread… It’s pretty much all the days in January 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted Thursday at 01:25 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:25 AM 53 minutes ago, Rjay said: I completely messed up merging 2 storm threads. The system on Amex makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Thursday at 02:16 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:16 AM 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: I dont even know what day we are talking about not getting snow anymore. This thread… I just copied and pasted what Walt had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 03:28 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:28 AM Icon shifted west Rgem is also amped 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 03:34 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:34 AM CMC likely moves SE given the RGEM deamplifying from 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 04:05 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:05 AM 38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: CMC likely moves SE given the RGEM deamplifying from 12z Yes it did. It shows a legit coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted Thursday at 04:18 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:18 AM So we are 4 days out. CMC gives me 10 inches and GFS gives me nothing. Sounds about right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 04:18 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:18 AM Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted Thursday at 04:22 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:22 AM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc where do I sign and do you have a pen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Thursday at 04:32 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:32 AM Just got on line (poker night) and first thing I look at is the CMC - crazy - has us at about 5", but 10 miles NW is 7" and 10 miles SE is 1". Easy forecast, lol. More importantly, nice move back SE without losing its "amp-ness." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Thursday at 04:36 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:36 AM Split the difference between the cmc and GFS an you basically get what the euro ai been showing for days. The ai been scoring well this winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Thursday at 05:13 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:13 AM Ukie 2 to 4. Gfs/euro basically with nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 05:15 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:15 AM GFS is notoriously progressive in these setups 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 05:46 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:46 AM this is the difference between next to nothing on the ECMWF and widespread 3-6" on the CMC. good luck figuring that out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Thursday at 05:46 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:46 AM After the UKMET looked very nice, I was hoping the Euro would show an improvement. No dice. It just brushes us with a coating of snow. CMC is probably overdone and will likely continue to correct, but hopefully the fact that it's so amped is a sign that the southeast/weak models are also off. I'm hoping we can pull off a middle ground solution like tonight's UKMET is showing. Obviously though with still 3 and a half days to go, anything is still on the table. We probably won't have a good idea until Friday or Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Thursday at 05:47 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:47 AM Can't believe nobody posted the UK which is a nice hit and while it's not as amped/snowy as the CMC I might rather get 2-4" guaranteed with temps in the 20s (3-6" if we get good ratios which is possible) than the potential for lots of mixing/rain along and SE of 95 like the CMC. And the UK down south would be absolutely nuts; 1989 redux for the GA/SC/NC coasts. I have relatives in Charleston and Savannah and they all thought th 1989 storm was one of the most amazing things they had ever seen, even though they're not snow lovers. I almost want them to get that and us get nothing. Almost, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Thursday at 06:04 AM Share Posted Thursday at 06:04 AM 18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is the difference between next to nothing on the ECMWF and widespread 3-6" on the CMC. good luck figuring that out Euro looks very similar to the GFS at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 06:37 AM Share Posted Thursday at 06:37 AM EPS looks good! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 06:38 AM Share Posted Thursday at 06:38 AM also has a decent signal for the 22nd with the trough tightening up more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Thursday at 07:06 AM Share Posted Thursday at 07:06 AM 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS looks good! Argues for an Op outlier to some extent. Would be nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Thursday at 09:48 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:48 AM Good Thursday morning, I've no changes to the thread headline this morning and our anticipations. You're all over it... until the RGEM goes away, I'm staying right with earlier thread notes. Melting on pavement Sunday afternoon, till just after sundown... then potentially very slippery. I was surprised to see the EPS so fast for the next one around Wednesday so, no headline change. Two events should give us some snow. NOTE: VERY cold Mon night-Wed which I think is being discussed in the Jan thread. I've no thoughts beyond the 24th... too many model uncertainties before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Thursday at 10:02 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:02 AM 06z/16 GFS finally shifted the surface low on Sunday morning further s, allowing better overrunning and now more similar to the other modeling. I expect EC will come around. Its not over, but we're still in the game for a slippery Sunday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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