WestBabylonWeather Posted Wednesday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:29 PM 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: NYC’s last daily snowfall of 4” or more occurred on January 29, 2022 when 7.3” fell. The January 28-29, 2022 storm dumped 8.5” of snow. That storm was so crazy. Out here in babylon was almost 2 feet. Crazy cutoff 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Wednesday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:32 PM 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: NYC’s last daily snowfall of 4” or more occurred on January 29, 2022 when 7.3” fell. The January 28-29, 2022 storm dumped 8.5” of snow. 22" out on IBSP from that one. Just my luck that I was in FL during that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Wednesday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:32 PM 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: That storm was so crazy. Out here in babylon was almost 2 feet. Crazy cutoff Yes. I recall it well, as I was visiting my sister in Patchogue at the time. Photo from Patchogue: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Wednesday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:38 PM 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Disappointing EURO run, however only one run and will likely change as we move forward. EPS is weak sauce for Sunday how’s some interesting members for mid week. The Carolina’s might get crushed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Wednesday at 06:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:39 PM Just now, Allsnow said: EPS is weak sauce for Sunday how’s some interesting members for mid week. The Carolina’s might get crushed I honestly would love to see the South get a good storm. Of course much more interesting down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Wednesday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:58 PM Hope the EURO AI is right. No QPF available but probably is like 2-5 inches. Its been so good the last month or two inside of 120. A bit erratic beyond that and I feel the Euro/EPS has beaten it from 120-180 but it was really the only model that accurately depicted the SRN US Event last week from days out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted Wednesday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:13 PM Google Graphcast 12Z Wednesday still shows several inches for most of the area, although along the immediate coast mixed precip/rain is forecast to be an issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Wednesday at 07:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:14 PM 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS is weak sauce for Sunday how’s some interesting members for mid week. The Carolina’s might get crushed It’s honesty really hard to believe that we have been in a predominantly cold to very cold pattern since the day after Thanksgiving and have yet to see even one major (6”+) snow event anywhere in the metro area. It’s almost 07-08 vibes, snow wise at least, to this point except it’s been cold this winter unlike that one 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted Wednesday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:19 PM 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Hope the EURO AI is right. No QPF available but probably is like 2-5 inches. Its been so good the last month or two inside of 120. A bit erratic beyond that and I feel the Euro/EPS has beaten it from 120-180 but it was really the only model that accurately depicted the SRN US Event last week from days out is that 12Z? Where do you get it so fast, TT and Wxbell isnt out yet. I also have a question for anyone here, for plotting snowfall. Is snowfall measured at ISP airport itself or is it Brookhaven (upton) doing the measuring and its kept record at the airport as "Islip Area"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Wednesday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:20 PM 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s honesty really hard to believe that we have been in a predominantly cold to very cold pattern since the day after Thanksgiving and have yet to see even one major (6”+) snow event anywhere in the metro area. It’s almost 07-08 vibes, snow wise at least, to this point except it’s been cold this winter unlike that one Incredibly disappointing we have failed at every pattern and even avoided the bad mjo phases 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Wednesday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:21 PM Just now, The 4 Seasons said: is that 12Z? Where do you get it so fast, TT and Wxbell isnt out yet. I also have a question for anyone here, for plotting snowfall. Is snowfall measured at ISP airport itself or is it Brookhaven (upton) doing the measuring and its kept record at the airport as "Islip Area"? No it was the 06. I believe ISP measures at the airport. As far as I know the only airports nationwide where the measuring is not done at the field are BOS/PHL/DTW/DEN. There may be others I am not aware of but those all got moved due to bad measuring and JFK was close to being moved too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted Wednesday at 07:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:25 PM 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: No it was the 06. I believe ISP measures at the airport. As far as I know the only airports nationwide where the measuring is not done at the field are BOS/PHL/DTW/DEN. There may be others I am not aware of but those all got moved due to bad measuring and JFK was close to being moved too Ok, great thanks for the info i really appreciate it. I didn't know BOS wasnt measured at the airport. Where exactly is it measured and by whom? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Wednesday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:26 PM Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Ok, great thanks for the info i really appreciate it. I didn't know BOS wasnt measured at the airport. Where exactly is it measured and by whom? I think all 4 are someone who lives just off the airport within 1 mile. BOS you'll notice never puts 4 groups or SNINCR remarks in METARs during snow events as those other airports do not either. If you see that you know they are not measuring there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Wednesday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:26 PM 53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. I recall it well, as I was visiting my sister in Patchogue at the time. Photo from Patchogue: We struggled here, as we always do in those coastal type set ups. Our last good hit here was last Feb, which was a surprise. Decent storm. 10-12 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Wednesday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:37 PM 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: That storm was so crazy. Out here in babylon was almost 2 feet. Crazy cutoff There was an appreciable increase in snow around Massapequa and definitely 20” or so once you reached Rt 231. I drove from Long Beach back to my house on the N Shore and noticed the increase in Massapequa and another dropoff once you went north through Dix Hills. My house had probably 14-15” and Huntington village 10-11”. There was definitely a shaft zone around there. East on Jericho Tpke the amounts visibly went up again around Larkfield Rd area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Wednesday at 08:29 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 08:29 PM 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: NYC’s last daily snowfall of 4” or more occurred on January 29, 2022 when 7.3” fell. The January 28-29, 2022 storm dumped 8.5” of snow. Perfect Don! Thank you very much. Walt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Wednesday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:30 PM 40 minutes ago, jm1220 said: There was an appreciable increase in snow around Massapequa and definitely 20” or so once you reached Rt 231. I drove from Long Beach back to my house on the N Shore and noticed the increase in Massapequa and another dropoff once you went north through Dix Hills. My house had probably 14-15” and Huntington village 10-11”. There was definitely a shaft zone around there. East on Jericho Tpke the amounts visibly went up again around Larkfield Rd area. 16.4" IMBY from that one. 2.4" fell before midnight on the 28th, 14" on the 29th. 36.2" that winter. Of the past 5 winters, two have been near or a little above average and 3 have been well below. The 5-year average has been 22.1", which kinda sucks, but it is only our second worst 5 year period in the past 30. The worst was 97-98 through 01-02 at 20.7". On the brighter side, the best 5 consecutive winters from 2013-2014 through 2017-2018 averaged 56.0" I still think the guys who were saying "don't get used to it" were wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 09:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:00 PM 12z Euro AI snow chances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:19 PM Icon is a miss Gfs leading the way ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted Wednesday at 09:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:22 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon is a miss Gfs leading the way ? im not sure that model has ever been accurate. so it showing a non-event makes me more excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Wednesday at 09:45 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 09:45 PM Suggest following the RGEM vs the prior cycle CMC to see Canadian trends. No thread title change and no split into two events til tomorrow morning, if it looks possible. I continue sure that we'll see 1-2" NYC CP Sunday afternoon evening (I definitely can be wrong) and then I think the way the 5H vortex flies north mid week, and the flow backs on the east coast that a large scale event is probably coming up the eastern USA late 22-24. Dont want to mislead so follow the models and your own expert reads-ensembles, NWS and CPC guidance etc and go from there. My next post probably tomorrow morning. The downer side: daily weekly EPS continues dry axis here 1/20-27. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Wednesday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:27 PM 1 hour ago, vegan_edible said: im not sure that model has ever been accurate. so it showing a non-event makes me more excited 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Icon is a miss Gfs leading the way ? I can’t remember the last time the GFS actually scored a coup inside of 4 days but boy is it insistent on Sunday being a complete non event run after run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Wednesday at 10:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:46 PM 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I can’t remember the last time the GFS actually scored a coup inside of 4 days but boy is it insistent on Sunday being a complete non event run after run It also has no event in the south after that so it’s most likely wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted Wednesday at 10:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:49 PM 3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think all 4 are someone who lives just off the airport within 1 mile. BOS you'll notice never puts 4 groups or SNINCR remarks in METARs during snow events as those other airports do not either. If you see that you know they are not measuring there. DEN is a weird case. The airport is on a windy plain, it is 6 miles from the SW corner to the NE corner of the airport. I don't know of any houses anywhere near the airport, within miles. Not the best place to measure snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Wednesday at 10:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:56 PM 6 minutes ago, EWR757 said: DEN is a weird case. The airport is on a windy plain, it is 6 miles from the SW corner to the NE corner of the airport. I don't know of any houses anywhere near the airport, within miles. Not the best place to measure snow depth. I’ve wondered with Denver where the person who measures is at since there isn’t exactly anyone nearby as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted Wednesday at 11:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:00 PM 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’ve wondered with Denver where the person who measures is at since there isn’t exactly anyone nearby as you said https://www.9news.com/article/weather/weather-colorado/denver-weather-station-dia-airport/73-860ca63c-4296-4ce8-be84-2e4cb70f2cb6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 11:33 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:33 PM Euro went drier for sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Wednesday at 11:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:35 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Euro went drier for sunday Figures when it shows snow for us it would be wrong haha oh well, just that type of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted Wednesday at 11:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:37 PM There is the potential for very significant coastal storm Thursday, November 22nd, if the pieces come together, as one disturbance will be approaching from the Southeastern United States, as another disturbance approaches, through the Great Lakes. IF these two disturbances come together there would be the potential for a very significant coastal storm. This potential is highlighted somewhat with the latest run of the ECMWF with AI based implementation, rather than the traditional physics-based model. This new model implementation is performing better than the traditional physics-based model. Click here for more information from ECMWF on the AI model. All images courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Wednesday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:38 PM ehh, the setup is touchy and this is 4 days out. these waves generally like to trend NW as we get closer so hopefully we can reel a light to moderate event in 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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