Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HREF

From the SNE forum 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

From the SNE forum 

That would be warning level snows in the metro if it verified. 

[North and West]

I've got 2-5 coast with less east end of the island.  3-6 city and immediate northern burbs, upside possible if band. 4-8 north of the usual dividing line Merrit through 287 region.   Not really overthinking this one.  Ratios should be decent north and west.
Nice moderate storm.  

I resemble this remark.


.

[Tatamy]

Steady light snow- Visibility 2 miles.  32F

[donsutherland1]

As of now, I have no big changes to my thinking. The Philadelphia to New York City areas remain in line for a 3"-6" snowfall (Boston: 4"-8"). There will likely be an area just north and west of the Philadelphia and New York City areas that sees a general 4"-8" snowfall.  Most of the snow will likely fall over a 3-hour period, suggesting the possibility of a period of heavy snow with 1/4-mile or lower visibilities at the peak of the storm (supported by the HREF).

The HREF is on the aggressive side of the guidance, but all of the guidance put together suggests a moderate to locally significant snowfall.

[jm1220]

Anyway-36 here and cloudy. Looking forward to all the water outside refreezing with the snow into a brick. The initial snow here will be pasty before the cold hammers down and will all freeze solid. Hope everyone’s stocked up on the salt. 

[Rmine1]

Noticeable uptick in wind, blowing due N in Brightwaters. 

[weathermedic]

41/32 wet bulb 37. Winds NNE here in Sheepshead Bay 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of now, I have no big changes to my thinking. The Philadelphia to New York City areas remain in line for a 3"-6" snowfall (Boston: 4"-8"). There will likely be an area just north and west of the Philadelphia and New York City areas that sees a general 4"-8" snowfall.  Most of the snow will likely fall over a 3-hour period, suggesting the possibility of a period of heavy snow with 1/4-mile or lower visibilities at the peak of the storm (supported by the HREF).

The HREF is on the aggressive side of the guidance, but all of the guidance put together suggests a moderate to locally significant snowfall.

Don, what do you see as the time frame for that 3 hour window of heaviest snowfall?

[allgame830]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Don, what do you see as the time frame for that 3 hour window of heaviest snowfall?

Looks like 7-10pm from what I see on the latest but I’m sure @donsutherland1can give a better answer 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Don, what do you see as the time frame for that 3 hour window of heaviest snowfall?

Probably 6:30 - 9:30 this evening in and around the City.

[BoulderWX]

Light snow in Morristown at 35 degrees. A little earlier than I had anticipated. 

[lee59]

Snowing in Philly

[Brasiluvsnow]

Blue Skies and the sun sure disappeared fast,,,,,,,,,now we await the snowy festivities 

[donsutherland1]

From NWS Probabilistic Precipitation Portal:

[SnowGoose69]

The HRRR/06Z Euro are only models that seem to be close at the moment....all show little activity from NYC-E til 2130z or so

[wxman]

Steady mood flakes.  34/29

[Snowlover11]

snowing pretty decently per earthcam in Philly.

[wxman]

Moderate snow now.  Really picking up.

[winterwarlock]

37 in Belle Mead NJ with slow moving flakes

[BlizzLuv]

Flakes falling with a temp of 36 in northern Hillsborough.

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

From NWS Probabilistic Precipitation Portal:

Looks like 4"+ areawide even down to Long Beach.

I saw the top end of that scale is 72 inches.... well thats never happening in our area lol.

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like 4"+ areawide even down to Long Beach.

I saw the top end of that scale is 72 inches.... well thats never happening in our area lol.

 

I’m a little pessimistic about my home town for this storm which never happens in the winter (lol), they might struggle to get past 2-3” unless they go to town in a band. It’s 40 there now and it always takes forever for the immediate south shore to cool down. Short range models are also hinting at a subsidence zone somewhere east of the enhanced snow area in E PA/NJ. With Long Beach’s luck… 

[nightknights]

Low level clouds going North to South

[Cyg]

Moderate rain with a few flakes mixed in here in Brick

[Cfa]

38 with some peaks of sunshine in Middle Island.

[snywx]

30° w/ very lgt snow falling 

- 3 mi W of Middletown NY 

[wxman]

Unpaved surfaces caving.  Moderate snow.  33/30

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Allsnow]

Snow/rain mix 38