EWR757 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The main problem I see now is DPs/Ts higher than modeled. for example LGA 40/30, both NAM/GFS had 36/27 or so. It may mean any snow from 18-21Z or so won't do a whole lot but not sure it matters a ton as 22-02 was probably when the meaningful rates were coming anyway Higher than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha the rgem never mention that model again RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM. By the way-RGEM!!!!! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 hours ago, Yaz said: Let me know if anybody wants to learn how to use BUFKIT. It is a free software program that interprets American model output (i.e. GFS, NAM, et al) that is also freely available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The point wasn’t to prove how inaccurate you are as a poster. It was to remind you how bad the rgem was with this system Its been bad...but is it right now? Seems to be supported by other models currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: Its been bad...but is it right now? Seems to be supported by other models currently So....a storm is progged. It looks like its waffling. At some point it hones in on a moderate event. As we get closer higher totals get thrown about. As showtime arrives, things don't go quite as planned and totals get cut back. Stop me if you have heard this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The new HREF looks real good. It’s on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, psv88 said: The new HREF looks real good. It’s on A map please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha the rgem never mention that model again For posterity: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: A map please? I don’t post maps. Outside of my pay grade. 4-8” for the whole area. Very nice rates as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: The new HREF looks real good. It’s on The HRW models looked good for us in general which is what the HREF's probably based on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I've got 2-5 coast with less east end of the island. 3-6 city and immediate northern burbs, upside possible if band. 4-8 north of the usual dividing line Merrit through 287 region. Not really overthinking this one. Ratios should be decent north and west. Nice moderate storm. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: So....a storm is progged. It looks like its waffling. At some point it hones in on a moderate event. As we get closer higher totals get thrown about. As showtime arrives, things don't go quite as planned and totals get cut back. Stop me if you have heard this before. The gfs would support the NWS snowfall map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Radar beginning to fill in down here. Tiny stripe of precip passing through. Couple fat flakes and raindrops mixed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Flurries just began. Should be on and off for a while until more consistent light snow begins around 1 or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The HREF looks overdone. To me the metro will get 99% of their snow from 23-02Z probably, unless somewhere there are 2 inch an hour rates 6-7 would be hard to reach 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 21 minutes ago, EWR757 said: Higher than modeled? Wet bulbing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Everything looks on track to me. Still looks like a 3 to 5 inch snowfall for this area. I'll stick with the 4.5" prediction I made for my location yesterday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HREF looks overdone. To me the metro will get 99% of their snow from 23-02Z probably, unless somewhere there are 2 inch an hour rates 6-7 would be hard to reach It usually has a tendency to do this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HREF looks overdone. To me the metro will get 99% of their snow from 23-02Z probably, unless somewhere there are 2 inch an hour rates 6-7 would be hard to reach You are really going with a 3 hour snow storm? Seems light in time to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HREF looks overdone. To me the metro will get 99% of their snow from 23-02Z probably, unless somewhere there are 2 inch an hour rates 6-7 would be hard to reach I’m thinking 3-5” for most and 6-7 where a band can set up. Shoreline where warm air is stubborn maybe 2-3. I wish the models stuck with the wetter 0z look but most backed off to some degree. Just doesn’t look like that organized/dynamic a system. Anyway it’ll be a fun few hours and we’ll definitely have a wintry look this week in the frigid cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: I've got 2-5 coast with less east end of the island. 3-6 city and immediate northern burbs, upside possible if band. 4-8 north of the usual dividing line Merrit through 287 region. Not really overthinking this one. Ratios should be decent north and west. Nice moderate storm. X 100 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Short range models do show an enhanced area on LI to some extent. Wonder if we’ll get a little help from the Sound via convergence on the northerly flow enhancing the snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It usually has a tendency to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Light snow has begun here. 29.7° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Flurries in Mahwah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Short range models do show an enhanced area on LI to some extent. Wonder if we’ll get a little help from the Sound via convergence on the northerly flow enhancing the snow. The north shore special can be good for an extra inch or two. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 41 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Every model out there has been wrong and late to the party at some point so its not alone But lets see if its right currently The rgem was way more wrong than the other models. It was still holding on to an inland runner just yesterday, the only model showing anything close to that solution. The Canadians took a major L on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Dual vorts. On radar you can pick up the distinctive spins,everything tracking ene. Its still getting it's act together btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: The rgem was way more wrong than the other models. It was still holding on to an inland runner just yesterday, the only model showing anything close to that solution. The Canadians took a major L on this one. Horse is dead. Beyond dead. Let’s move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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