Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[HeadInTheClouds]

32 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What’s a 300 mile shift between friends?

Now do the Euro. Let me know how many miles it shifted west. 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Eastern Bergen ,Eastern Essex and eastern Union should also be under warnings especially since they mention some areas could get 6 inches - they are cutting it to close IMO

Warning level is 7” and it’s based on probability which for those areas is low.

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Now do the Euro. Let me know how many miles it shifted west. 

The AI been rock steady 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Before our bonanza period 2000-2018, starving for this kind of moderate storm was the norm.

We still got a bunch of these moderate events the 70s and 80s. But the period in the late 90s was particularly lacking. The March 99 wet snowstorm that broke all those sycamore branches in Long Beach was the best of that era.

[MJO812]

The start time is being pushed back on the models allowing more cold air to come in.

[NJwx85]

The RGEM isn’t a great model. Like the NAM it tends to make wild jumps inside of 48hrs. They are useful but only if you know how to use them. 

[EWR757]

11 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Now do the Euro. Let me know how many miles it shifted west. 

A lot of CMC trash talk.   While the CMC shift was more significant for major population centers, I'll suggest the ECMWF was more meteorologically significant.  

The ECMWF AIFS AI did better, but it's likely the Google model did the best.  

There are still warm air issues along the coast and urban areas tomorrow for at least the first few hours of precipitation.   

NYC/EWR will be at best slush tomorrow afternoon, and could very well end up being melted snow or even a cold rain.  

 

Google Graphcast had the most correct position of the low since Jan 15:

 

 

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

The AI been rock steady 

The AI for the most part yes. The Euro op absolutely not. 

[North and West]

All hail our new Skynet overlord. 

.

[Allsnow]

[wdrag]

3 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

A lot of CMC trash talk.   While the CMC shift was more significant for major population centers, I'll suggest the ECMWF was more meteorologically significant.  

The ECMWF AIFS AI did better, but it's likely the Google model did the best.  

There are still warm air issues along the coast and urban areas tomorrow for at least the first few hours of precipitation.   

NYC/EWR will be at best slush tomorrow afternoon, and could very well end up being melted snow or even a cold rain.  

 

I think your RGEM pronouncements are premature.  

It was the first model to signal big...  its southeast move might 50 miles but it is locked. While I may. be wrong I'm planning on big doings nw of I95 including large snowfall frigates and higher ratios.  You should start seeing spotty 1/4S+ e PA near 3PM.

 

offline now.

[IrishRob17]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Warning level is 7” and it’s based on probability which for those areas is low.

7" over what time period? Did it change? 

[Roger Smith]

Largest snowfalls at NYC for Jan 18, 19 and 20

For Jan 18, record daily snow was only 5.0" (1875); tied for lowest daily record in Jan. (6, 9 also 5.0" records)

For Jan 19, record daily snow 9.0" 1936. (a total snow of 9.2" 18-19)

For Jan 20, record daily snow 11.1" 1978. (a total snow of 13.6" 19-20)

Other significant snowfalls: 

9.9" Jan 19-20 1961 (4.4" + 5.5")

7.0" Jan 20 1925

6.0" Jan 19 1869

5.7" Jan 20 1937

4.0" Jan 19 1886

4.0" Jan 18-19, 2009 (2.2" + 1.8")

Before NYC records began, a blizzard hit n.e. states on Jan 19, 1857, 18" was recorded by Caswell in Providence RI, and it was followed by extreme cold (-14 F on 21st and 22nd). Daytime readings stayed below zero F. Jan 1857 was coldest on record at Toronto (1840 to present) and Feb 1857 became very mild with severe ice jam flooding reported in Ontario, New York state and New England. Temps rose into 60s and some heavy rainfalls were reported; march went back to being very cold and the entire spring was cold. 

 

 

 

 

 

[BoulderWX]

GFS is 3-5 area wide. Thinking 3-6 for most of the area is a solid call. With some places getting close to 8”

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

GFS is 3-5 area wide. Thinking 3-6 for most of the area is a solid call. With some places getting close to 8”

There'll likely be some places under a lucky band that get 7-8". Impossible to say where that'll be. NW NJ/Hudson Valley probably has one of them in the good ratios and mid level lift. But generally a 4-6" type event. 3-4" in places that waste some in the beginning like perhaps twin forks/coastal NJ/South Shore. 

[BxEngine]

No one is seeing just a cold rain. 

[psv88]

Remember when the GFS had the SLP into fire island? Lol. Now has a snowstorm to block island

[psv88]

17 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

A lot of CMC trash talk.   While the CMC shift was more significant for major population centers, I'll suggest the ECMWF was more meteorologically significant.  

The ECMWF AIFS AI did better, but it's likely the Google model did the best.  

There are still warm air issues along the coast and urban areas tomorrow for at least the first few hours of precipitation.   

NYC/EWR will be at best slush tomorrow afternoon, and could very well end up being melted snow or even a cold rain.  

 

Google Graphcast had the most correct position of the low since Jan 15:

 

 

 

Take a break

[SnowGoose69]

I thought the NWS having watches out back into PA and parts of NY yesterday was gutsy based off more or less only 1 model or 2.  The BGM/ALY headlines look okay now to me as far as advisory/warning but SCE and Mt Holly may be a bit generous for sure on some counties in warnings

[dmillz25]

28 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

A lot of CMC trash talk.   While the CMC shift was more significant for major population centers, I'll suggest the ECMWF was more meteorologically significant.  

The ECMWF AIFS AI did better, but it's likely the Google model did the best.  

There are still warm air issues along the coast and urban areas tomorrow for at least the first few hours of precipitation.   

NYC/EWR will be at best slush tomorrow afternoon, and could very well end up being melted snow or even a cold rain.  

 

Google Graphcast had the most correct position of the low since Jan 15:

 

 

 

When it starts snowing the city is at 34 with dews in the upper teens….

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

28 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

7" over what time period? Did it change? 

7 inches in NY north of uptons area. Upton area is 6 inches. Mt. Holly is 5 inches. 
Most of New England is 6 inches other than the northern half of Maine. 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We still got a bunch of these moderate events the 70s and 80s. But the period in the late 90s was particularly lacking. The March 99 wet snowstorm that broke all those sycamore branches in Long Beach was the best of that era.

late 80s and early 90s was historically bad at JFK

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Largest snowfalls at NYC for Jan 18, 19 and 20

For Jan 18, record daily snow was only 5.0" (1875); tied for lowest daily record in Jan. (6, 9 also 5.0" records)

For Jan 19, record daily snow 9.0" 1936. (a total snow of 9.2" 18-19)

For Jan 20, record daily snow 11.1" 1978. (a total snow of 13.6" 19-20)

Other significant snowfalls: 

9.9" Jan 19-20 1961 (4.4" + 5.5")

7.0" Jan 20 1925

6.0" Jan 19 1869

5.7" Jan 20 1937

4.0" Jan 19 1886

4.0" Jan 18-19, 2009 (2.2" + 1.8")

Before NYC records began, a blizzard hit n.e. states on Jan 19, 1857, 18" was recorded by Caswell in Providence RI, and it was followed by extreme cold (-14 F on 21st and 22nd). Daytime readings stayed below zero F. Jan 1857 was coldest on record at Toronto (1840 to present) and Feb 1857 became very mild with severe ice jam flooding reported in Ontario, New York state and New England. Temps rose into 60s and some heavy rainfalls were reported; march went back to being very cold and the entire spring was cold. 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 1857 had near 0 with blizzard conditions, what an absolutely amazing snowstorm it must have been!

 

[BoulderWX]

Not giving it any credence but what happened to the ICON lol

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

late 80s and early 90s was historically bad at JFK

December 88 had that great Norlun through Suffolk into CT and 90-91 had several moderate events.

Monthly Data for December 1988 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	11.0
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	10.4
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	8.0
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	7.5
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	7.0
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	7.0
NY	DIX HILLS	COOP	6.5

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Jan 1857 had near 0 with blizzard conditions, what an absolutely amazing snowstorm it must have been!

 

From The New York Daily Times:

For sixteen or seventeen hours the snow fell unceasingly, the wind, during the greater part of the time, blowing nearly a hurricane. The streets at the corners were clean as a bare bone, but where the snow had drifted just beyond, it was from two to five feet deep.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December 88 had that great Norlun through Suffolk into CT and 90-91 had several moderate events.

Monthly Data for December 1988 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	11.0
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	10.4
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	8.0
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	7.5
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	7.0
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	7.0
NY	DIX HILLS	COOP	6.5

Eastern LI did well but I'll always remember that period for all the busts 1988-89 had the infamous February 1989 bust and 1989-90 had the infamous December 1989 bust.  There were a couple of positive busts in there too like February 1991, but JFK had 3 single digit snowfall seasons in there.

 

[weatherpruf]

30 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

No one is seeing just a cold rain. 

Well if you're out at sea maybe.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

From The New York Daily Times:

For sixteen or seventeen hours the snow fell unceasingly, the wind, during the greater part of the time, blowing nearly a hurricane. The streets at the corners were clean as a bare bone, but where the snow had drifted just beyond, it was from two to five feet deep.

Don were there any snowfall measurements and temp readings and wind measurements taken back then-- maybe from The Battery? I think  their records go further back then Central Park's?

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Not giving it any credence but what happened to the ICON lol

The ICON does wacky stuff once you're inside like 72.  I use it sometimes to get a sense of where other models are at from 72-144 or so and it can outperform the GFS/CMC on the end result there often but close in it can be all over.