Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[Allsnow]

Rgem 00z last night vs rgem 18z today

 

@psv88

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, wxman said:

Looks like the ICON cut back considerably overall, as did the rgem.

Those models are typically too wet with qpf so it’s not shocking 

 

too many weenies bought into the rgem fantasy 

[psv88]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Rgem 00z last night vs rgem 18z today

 

@psv88

What’s a 300 mile shift between friends?

[jm1220]

Looking like another win for the Euro AI.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

What’s a 300 mile shift between friends?

Euro ftw 

[brooklynwx99]

straight up cave from the RGEM

[Metasequoia]

Well... maybe the average of all the weather models of days past will be the right answer. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Looking like another win for the Euro AI.

Absolutely. Terrible from the Canadians. As most of us said

[wxman]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

straight up cave from the RGEM

It may be overcorrecting.  Will be interesting to see what GFS has to say.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Well... maybe the average of all the weather models of days past will be the right answer. 

That was the case with this event. Euro came over 500 miles NW along with the GFS. Plus the RGEM shifted about 50-100 miles east. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Anyone have a best guesstimate for our start time ? Any chance this begins before noon ? When do the festivities begin ?

[Eduardo]

37 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

And with perhaps some more snow opportunities in the next week or two. Kind of like a mini '13-'14 stretch, one of my favorite all time winters.

This is basically how I’ve been thinking about the pattern for the past few days.  Hopefully it sticks around a bit into Feb before we are probably done outside of some lucky Niña March slop.

[Nibor]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looking like another win for the Euro AI.

All hail our new Skynet overlord. 

[Allsnow]

 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Anyone have a best guesstimate for our start time ? Any chance this begins before noon ? When do the festivities begin ?

1-2 pm? Hrrr is earlier though 

[Allsnow]

Where is @SnoSki14

[Rjay]

37 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Got my storms mixed up. There were 3 big ones that winter in about a month. Gettin old.

That storm was a late blooming miller b that absolutely crushed parts of SNE

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

1-2 pm? Hrrr is earlier though 

Thats why I was asking brother , Thanks

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Where is @SnoSki14

He was so shook this morning .

[ForestHillWx]

I’m pissed the city is stealing my qpf! (Sarc in case it’s not evident). 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I’m pissed the city is stealing my qpf! (Sarc in case it’s not evident). 

Report the theft to MJO812.

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Those models are typically too wet with qpf so it’s not shocking 

 

too many weenies bought into the rgem fantasy 

All the mesos except for the NAM lol it wants no part of this storm, never has

[uofmiami]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

No surprise.  Too much was made of this model for the past day or so IMO.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

No surprise.  Too much was made of this model for the past day or so IMO.

Agreed. Everyone was riding it like a pony 

[guinness77]

We’ve gone from getting at least one snow storm a cold month, in the past, to, understandably, frothing at the mouth for a 6-inch event, lol 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looking like another win for the Euro AI.

While it was still a bit suppressed, not nearly as much as the regular Euro.

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, guinness77 said:

We’ve gone from getting at least one snow storm a cold month, in the past, to, understandably, frothing at the mouth for a 6-inch event, lol 

Before our bonanza period 2000-2018, starving for this kind of moderate storm was the norm.

[snowman19]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

straight up cave from the RGEM

And to think Mark Margavage was riding it like Sea Biscuit lol

[Stormlover74]

Just now, snowman19 said:

And to think Mark Margavage was riding it like Sea Biscuit lol

He still is! Claims it didn't cave

[guinness77]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Before our bonanza period 2000-2018, starving for this kind of moderate storm was the norm.

I remember feeling like there’d be snow on the ground from around Christmas to early March every year. The last couple of years have definitely been a huge disappointment in terms of snow.