kat5hurricane Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 7:07 PM, Allsnow said: think about where we were yesterday? 3-6 inch snowstorm coming with artic air mid week Expand And with perhaps some more snow opportunities in the next week or two. Kind of like a mini '13-'14 stretch, one of my favorite all time winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:20 PM, LibertyBell said: How much did you get in the storm last February that dropped 6.2 inches at JFK? There was a narrow swath of heavy snow but I think it covered at least half of Long Island. Expand 8 inches or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:34 PM, LibertyBell said: you guys are confusing the late January storm with the one he's talking about which happened earlier in the month. The one he's referencing developed a little too late for us to get historic amounts, though it was still major with 6-9 inches. Central Long Island got close to 20 inches, being closer to the low bombing near Montauk. Expand ahh, we had so much snow that winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:30 PM, LibertyBell said: wait you had almost 20 inches in that storm? I thought it was 20 inches only for central Long Island and up to New England. We got 6-9 inches here. Expand I think I may have it confused with another one in Jan....we had 3 that year, and one of them ( this might be it ) delivered more toward NE. There was one where we got almost 20 in CNJ. Someone here will know. It was a snow to rain and back to heavy snow situation. Nothing happened after Jan except a wicked ice storm in Feb. And a vicious rainstorm in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:33 PM, wdrag said: Hi! Looks like a brief period of 2"/hr snowfall rates near the green circles, se NYS near 6P, and a period of general 1"/hr snowfall rates 3P-9P along and west of I95. Please see attached WPC HREF snowband members, and the HREF green 6" swath from the 12z/18 cycle (old news?) and the general NWS snowfall prediction as available from their databases at 3PM, plus their odds on various thresholds at CP Expand NWS Upton doesn’t seem as bullish as early this morning for Rockland County. They are expecting 4-8 total: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ069 Sunday Night Snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:33 PM, LibertyBell said: I remember this-- it was supposed to change to rain here but it never did, just drizzle at the end, 7 inches of snow at JFK? For some reason that number sounds about right. Expand It was a rare case of a busted Miller A. By the late 80s models tended to handle big storms like that coming from the Gulf well but in this case they did not see the banding nor that the high over Canada was going to hold the cold air in longer, they all showed winds going 090-110 and we stayed 060. It was Miller Bs that models continued to suck with even into the later 90s though by 95-96 once we had the ETA and the Euro Miller B busts fell off quite a bit. The final bad one I recall was in February 97 there were watches out everywhere and within 1-2 model cycles they were dropped. Still an improvement from 87 when it would have taken til the day of the event to realize we were cooked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:37 PM, weatherpruf said: I think I may have it confused with another one in Jan....we had 3 that year, and one of them ( this might be it ) delivered more toward NE. There was one where we got almost 20 in CNJ. Someone here will know. It was a snow to rain and back to heavy snow situation. Nothing happened after Jan except a wicked ice storm in Feb. And a vicious rainstorm in March. Expand Yes that was the late January storm, snow to rain/sleet and even thundersleet to thundersnow, close to 20 inches here, most of that fell at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:38 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It was a rare case of a busted Miller A. By the late 80s models tended to handle big storms like that coming from the Gulf well but in this case they did not see the banding nor that the high over Canada was going to hold the cold air in longer, they all showed winds going 090-110 and we stayed 060. It was Miller Bs that models continued to suck with even into the later 90s though by 95-96 once we had the ETA and the Euro Miller B busts fell off quite a bit. The final bad one I recall was in February 97 there were watches out everywhere and within 1-2 model cycles they were dropped. Still an improvement from 87 when it would have taken til the day of the event to realize we were cooked. Expand another famous bust I remember is the last Heavy Snow Warning we ever had-- in January 2008. That was the last one that busted so badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:29 PM, weatherpruf said: That was almost a HECS, almost 20 inches. I don't think this is. It would be a storm for the ages if it hadn't followed Boxing Day a few weeks prior. Expand did you look at the snow totals on that link 5 - 10 inches - less coastal NJ where do you see 20 ? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/NJSnowRaw_20110111.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:39 PM, LibertyBell said: Yes that was the late January storm, snow to rain/sleet and even thundersleet to thundersnow, close to 20 inches here, most of that fell at night. Expand Same issue as the 12/5/03 storm, models missed a subtle vort that triggered a big area of snow well in advance of the surface low so we ended up like 6-8 inches higher than the forecast in both that storm and 1/2011 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:36 PM, kat5hurricane said: And with perhaps some more snow opportunities in the next week or two. Kind of like a mini '13-'14 stretch, one of my favorite all time winters. Expand and 14-15, even better for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:41 PM, NEG NAO said: did you look at the snow totals on that link 5 - 10 inches - where do you see 20 ? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/NJSnowRaw_20110111.gif Expand He confused it with the big storm at the end of January 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:41 PM, NEG NAO said: did you look at the snow totals on that link 5 - 10 inches - less coastal NJ where do you see 20 ? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/NJSnowRaw_20110111.gif Expand Got my storms mixed up. There were 3 big ones that winter in about a month. Gettin old. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:41 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Same issue as the 12/5/03 storm, models missed a subtle vort that triggered a big area of snow well in advance of the surface low so we ended up like 6-8 inches higher than the forecast in both that storm and 1/2011 Expand I remember we talked about it back then-- in the December 2003 storm we were supposed to be rain for the first half of the storm but the rain/snow line was about 5 miles south of us so we got the higher totals on the first day. On the second day it was colder but we didn't get as much snow-- the heavier totals were east of us out by Farmingdale who got about 20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:25 PM, LVblizzard said: Eagles game is gonna be nuts. Just like the 2013 snow bowl where Shady McCoy ran all over the Lions. Expand As a diehard Lions fan I sadly remember that game all too well but that's in the distant past, time to beat those Commandos tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:43 PM, BxEngine said: Guys. Expand Thankyou. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The DT rule is really in effect with this storm, he has always talked about how fast movers get overdone by many mesos on snow amounts. I really doubt we see many amounts outside of elevated areas where this enhanced lift of more than 7-8. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:44 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The DT rule is really in effect with this storm, he has always talked about how fast movers get overdone by many mesos on snow amounts. I really doubt we see many amounts outside of elevated areas where this enhanced lift of more than 7-8. Expand We will take a normal snow event that doesn't flip to rain or get eaten up by dry air. A solid 4-6 would be good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:44 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The DT rule is really in effect with this storm, he has always talked about how fast movers get overdone by many mesos on snow amounts. I really doubt we see many amounts outside of elevated areas where this enhanced lift of more than 7-8. Expand wasn't he predicting 6 -10 inches for this one a couple days ago ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:46 PM, weatherpruf said: We will take a normal snow event that doesn't flip to rain or get eaten up by dry air. A solid 4-6 would be good. Expand This. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:33 PM, wdrag said: Hi! Looks like a brief period of 2"/hr snowfall rates near the green circles, se NYS near 6P, and a period of general 1"/hr snowfall rates 3P-9P along and west of I95. Please see attached WPC HREF snowband members, and the HREF green 6" swath from the 12z/18 cycle (old news?) and the general NWS snowfall prediction as available from their databases at 3PM, plus their odds on various thresholds at CP Expand going to be interesting if that actually verifies in those locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:50 PM, psv88 said: This. Expand Yep this is all we wished for during the 80s and early 90s too, just one 4-6 inch snowstorm that never changed to rain. If it fell during the day that was a plus too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:38 PM, snowman19 said: NWS Upton doesn’t seem as bullish as early this morning for Rockland County. They are expecting 4-8 total: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ069 Sunday Night Snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Expand That's ok... most of that will probably fall in a 4 hr period within the 12 hr snowfall. Am leaving it to all of you to figure it out. Just glad something is happening, even if the CANADIAN axis was too far west ditto their positive snow depth axis. This will be a healthy storm with nnw wind gusts on LI 30-35 MPH I think by midnight Sunday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Icon sinks a bit south from 12z the metro is solidly in the 3-5 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Rgem is caving SE as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 What a fail by the rgem 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I know this is insignificant in the grand scheme of things but I think Upton is playing it conservative. I think they should have gone with warnings for Hudson, Union, and the remainder of Essex counties. The city I believe should remain as an advisory with the risk of mixing, but if recent trends continue with the meso models getting colder the city just might achieve warning level status when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 9:02 PM, Allsnow said: Icon sinks a bit south from 12z the metro is solidly in the 3-5 area Expand Looks like the ICON cut back considerably overall, as did the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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