Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

think about where we were yesterday? 
 

3-6 inch snowstorm coming with artic air mid week 

And with perhaps some more snow opportunities in the next week or two. Kind of like a mini '13-'14 stretch, one of my favorite all time winters.

[psv88]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How much did you get in the storm last February that dropped 6.2 inches at JFK? There was a narrow swath of heavy snow but I think it covered at least half of Long Island.

8 inches or so 

[steve392]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

you guys are confusing the late January storm with the one he's talking about which happened earlier in the month.  The one he's referencing developed a little too late for us to get historic amounts, though it was still major with 6-9 inches. Central Long Island got close to 20 inches, being closer to the low bombing near Montauk.

ahh, we had so much snow that winter.  

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wait you had almost 20 inches in that storm? I thought it was 20 inches only for central Long Island and up to New England.  We got 6-9 inches here.

I think I may have it confused with another one in Jan....we had 3 that year, and one of them ( this might be it ) delivered more toward NE. There was one where we got almost 20 in CNJ. Someone here will know. It was a snow to rain and back to heavy snow situation. Nothing happened after Jan except a wicked ice storm in Feb. And a vicious rainstorm in March.

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi!

Looks like a brief period of 2"/hr snowfall rates near the green circles, se NYS near 6P,  and a period of general 1"/hr snowfall rates 3P-9P along and west of I95. Please see attached WPC HREF snowband members, and the HREF green 6" swath from the 12z/18 cycle (old news?) and the general NWS snowfall prediction as available from their databases at 3PM,  plus their odds on various thresholds at CP

NWS Upton doesn’t seem as bullish as early this morning for Rockland County. They are expecting 4-8 total: 

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ069

Sunday Night

Snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember this-- it was supposed to change to rain here but it never did, just drizzle at the end, 7 inches of snow at JFK? For some reason that number sounds about right.

It was a rare case of a busted Miller A.  By the late 80s models tended to handle big storms like that coming from the Gulf well but in this case they did not see the banding nor that the high over Canada was going to hold the cold air in longer, they all showed winds going 090-110 and we stayed 060.  It was Miller Bs that models continued to suck with even into the later 90s though by 95-96 once we had the ETA and the Euro Miller B busts fell off quite a bit.  The final bad one I recall was in February 97 there were watches out everywhere and within 1-2 model cycles they were dropped.  Still an improvement from 87 when it would have taken til the day of the event to realize we were cooked.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

I think I may have it confused with another one in Jan....we had 3 that year, and one of them ( this might be it ) delivered more toward NE. There was one where we got almost 20 in CNJ. Someone here will know. It was a snow to rain and back to heavy snow situation. Nothing happened after Jan except a wicked ice storm in Feb. And a vicious rainstorm in March.

Yes that was the late January storm, snow to rain/sleet and even thundersleet to thundersnow, close to 20 inches here, most of that fell at night.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It was a rare case of a busted Miller A.  By the late 80s models tended to handle big storms like that coming from the Gulf well but in this case they did not see the banding nor that the high over Canada was going to hold the cold air in longer, they all showed winds going 090-110 and we stayed 060.  It was Miller Bs that models continued to suck with even into the later 90s though by 95-96 once we had the ETA and the Euro Miller B busts fell off quite a bit.  The final bad one I recall was in February 97 there were watches out everywhere and within 1-2 model cycles they were dropped.  Still an improvement from 87 when it would have taken til the day of the event to realize we were cooked.

another famous bust I remember is the last Heavy Snow Warning we ever had-- in January 2008.  That was the last one that busted so badly.

 

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

That was almost a HECS, almost 20 inches. I don't think this is. It would be a storm for the ages if it hadn't followed Boxing Day a few weeks prior.

did you look at the snow totals on that link 5 - 10 inches - less coastal NJ where do you see 20 ?

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/NJSnowRaw_20110111.gif

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes that was the late January storm, snow to rain/sleet and even thundersleet to thundersnow, close to 20 inches here, most of that fell at night.

 

Same issue as the 12/5/03 storm, models missed a subtle vort that triggered a big area of snow well in advance of the surface low so we ended up like 6-8 inches higher than the forecast in both that storm and 1/2011

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

And with perhaps some more snow opportunities in the next week or two. Kind of like a mini '13-'14 stretch, one of my favorite all time winters.

and 14-15, even better for us!

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

did you look at the snow totals on that link 5 - 10 inches - where do you see 20 ?

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/NJSnowRaw_20110111.gif

He confused it with the big storm at the end of January 2011

[BxEngine]

Guys. 

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

did you look at the snow totals on that link 5 - 10 inches - less coastal NJ where do you see 20 ?

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/NJSnowRaw_20110111.gif

Got my storms mixed up. There were 3 big ones that winter in about a month. Gettin old.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Same issue as the 12/5/03 storm, models missed a subtle vort that triggered a big area of snow well in advance of the surface low so we ended up like 6-8 inches higher than the forecast in both that storm and 1/2011

I remember we talked about it back then-- in the December 2003 storm we were supposed to be rain for the first half of the storm but the rain/snow line was about 5 miles south of us so we got the higher totals on the first day.  On the second day it was colder but we didn't get as much snow-- the heavier totals were east of us out by Farmingdale who got about 20 inches.

 

 

[kat5hurricane]

18 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Eagles game is gonna be nuts. Just like the 2013 snow bowl where Shady McCoy ran all over the Lions.

As a diehard Lions fan I sadly remember that game all too well but that's in the distant past, time to beat those Commandos tonight.

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

Guys. 

Thankyou.

[SnowGoose69]

The DT rule is really in effect with this storm, he has always talked about how fast movers get overdone by many mesos on snow amounts.  I really doubt we see many amounts outside of elevated areas where this enhanced lift of more than 7-8.  

[weatherpruf]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The DT rule is really in effect with this storm, he has always talked about how fast movers get overdone by many mesos on snow amounts.  I really doubt we see many amounts outside of elevated areas where this enhanced lift of more than 7-8.  

We will take a normal snow event that doesn't flip to rain or get eaten up by dry air. A solid 4-6 would be good. 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The DT rule is really in effect with this storm, he has always talked about how fast movers get overdone by many mesos on snow amounts.  I really doubt we see many amounts outside of elevated areas where this enhanced lift of more than 7-8.  

wasn't he predicting 6 -10 inches for this one a couple days ago ?

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We will take a normal snow event that doesn't flip to rain or get eaten up by dry air. A solid 4-6 would be good. 

This. 

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi!

Looks like a brief period of 2"/hr snowfall rates near the green circles, se NYS near 6P,  and a period of general 1"/hr snowfall rates 3P-9P along and west of I95. Please see attached WPC HREF snowband members, and the HREF green 6" swath from the 12z/18 cycle (old news?) and the general NWS snowfall prediction as available from their databases at 3PM,  plus their odds on various thresholds at CP

going to be interesting if that actually verifies in those locations

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This. 

Yep this is all we wished for during the 80s and early 90s too, just one 4-6 inch snowstorm that never changed to rain.  If it fell during the day that was a plus too.

[Allsnow]

[wdrag]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

NWS Upton doesn’t seem as bullish as early this morning for Rockland County. They are expecting 4-8 total: 

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ069

Sunday Night

Snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. 

That's ok...  most of that will probably fall in a 4 hr period within the 12 hr snowfall.  Am leaving it to all of you to figure it out.  Just glad something is happening, even if the CANADIAN axis was too far west ditto their positive snow depth axis.

 

This will be a healthy storm with nnw wind gusts on LI 30-35 MPH I think by midnight Sunday night. 

[Allsnow]

Icon sinks a bit south from 12z 

the metro is solidly in the 3-5 area 

[dmillz25]

Rgem is caving SE as well

[MJO812]

What a fail by the rgem

[Yanksfan]

I know this is insignificant in the grand scheme of things but I think Upton is playing it conservative. I think they should have gone with warnings for Hudson, Union, and the remainder of Essex counties.  The city I believe should remain as an advisory with the risk of mixing, but if recent trends continue with the  meso models getting colder the city just might achieve warning level status when all is said and done.

 

 

 

[wxman]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Icon sinks a bit south from 12z 

the metro is solidly in the 3-5 area 

Looks like the ICON cut back considerably overall, as did the rgem.