Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Irish said:

We'd be lucky to get that one as it looks like a southern slide no? with the tremendous cold pressing down?

Next weekend has a chance. Cmc also shows snow.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Irish said:

We'd be lucky to get that one as it looks like a southern slide no? with the tremendous cold pressing down?

No the tremendous cold will be here before the storm.  This storm comes at the end of it.

 

[MJO812]

Ukie

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

Staying up for the Euro, Ant?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Staying up for the Euro, Ant?

Yes

[jm1220]

To me UKMET looked a little better-more QPF and not amped. Best down here/along the coast but inland still gets a decent event.

[Irish]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No the tremendous cold will be here before the storm.  This storm comes at the end of it.

 

Got it, so a system is on the horizon but we could be looking at a mix/tainting as the cold slides back?

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Euro bumped up precip for our area. 

[jm1220]

Euro looks pretty much the exact same to me. Still hundreds of miles east of the RGEM and lightest with the precip. Did beef up inland areas a little but across the board area wide it would be a maybe 2-4" type event. Hopefully we see a GFS/UKMET type outcome.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

GFS is the best case scenario for 95% of us. Still amped enough for plenty of snow inland and good ratios, and cold enough for the city/coast. The 5% it’s not ideal for is well east in Suffolk but it should cool off enough pretty quick and flip over. Snow would probably start pasty in the city/east and become powder by the end. 

Basically my initial thoughts before 0z, everything is trending to a consensus. We snow!!. It is coming in more juiced also.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I was really surprised to discover how inactive the group is on numerous snow threats next week. I figured there'd be 2 or 3 threads going for 19-20, 21-22, and the 24th. I can see amounts between 3-6" in many locations late Sunday into Sunday evening. I do not think there's going to be much rain around the region except for a rain/sleet mix for an hour or two way out east on LI, maybe along portions of the south shore. I really do think it's a snowstorm. Then Wednesday probably has even a higher ceiling if the storm were to come closer as does Friday which is a pure coastal. 

WX/PT

[MJO812]

Eps looks west. Great for everyone. 

Night 

[jdj5211]

5 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I was really surprised to discover how inactive the group is on numerous snow threats next week. I figured there'd be 2 or 3 threads going for 19-20, 21-22, and the 24th. I can see amounts between 3-6" in many locations late Sunday into Sunday evening. I do not think there's going to be much rain around the region except for a rain/sleet mix for an hour or two way out east on LI, maybe along portions of the south shore. I really do think it's a snowstorm. Then Wednesday probably has even a higher ceiling if the storm were to come closer as does Friday which is a pure coastal. 

WX/PT

this!  The old forums used to be so alive and kicking....we would get multiple threads for each storm threat, model play by play, mets weighing in consistently etc....now its just a bunch of banter with the occasional weather post sprinkled in....

I think the main problem is there are a ton more social media outlets now compared to back then.  As long as us weather nerds have somewhere to chat I'm happy, but yes, it could be so much better....

 

[SI Mailman]

It’s also different since we were tracking a HECS 9 years ago this week. Haven’t had any monsters worth tracking in these parts for quite some time now

[Wxoutlooksblog]

27 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

It’s also different since we were tracking a HECS 9 years ago this week. Haven’t had any monsters worth tracking in these parts for quite some time now

I would not be so certain that there might not be a monster in our not too distant future. Now I do assume with regards to monsters you are referring to 15" or more. We did have quite a number of those from 2010 to 2020, very unusual to have that many in a decade.  As long as we can keep the cold we'll have a chance as the jet stream gradually slows down.

WX/PT

[Roger Smith]

The second of the three "threats" looks way suppressed and OTS, but the third one looks interesting. The first one is beginning to lock into a 3-6" event. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I was really surprised to discover how inactive the group is on numerous snow threats next week. I figured there'd be 2 or 3 threads going for 19-20, 21-22, and the 24th. I can see amounts between 3-6" in many locations late Sunday into Sunday evening. I do not think there's going to be much rain around the region except for a rain/sleet mix for an hour or two way out east on LI, maybe along portions of the south shore. I really do think it's a snowstorm. Then Wednesday probably has even a higher ceiling if the storm were to come closer as does Friday which is a pure coastal. 

WX/PT

Fool's gold fatigue. A lot of forecast threats that failed to materialize. It's been a rough few years outside one January a few years back. 

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I was really surprised to discover how inactive the group is on numerous snow threats next week. I figured there'd be 2 or 3 threads going for 19-20, 21-22, and the 24th. I can see amounts between 3-6" in many locations late Sunday into Sunday evening. I do not think there's going to be much rain around the region except for a rain/sleet mix for an hour or two way out east on LI, maybe along portions of the south shore. I really do think it's a snowstorm. Then Wednesday probably has even a higher ceiling if the storm were to come closer as does Friday which is a pure coastal. 

WX/PT

It's more active when it's a storm capable of producing foot plus.  Another issue is that this subforum has split into multiple other forums. Also there's social media and discord to compete with so it's just not what it used to be on here.  There were too many egos involved to have nice things and to have everyone under one roof.  

[Bxstormwatcher360]

The 0z cmc looks horrible. The icon.jma.nogaps.nam.gfs.and euro have good snows for the area.

[EWR757]

13 hours ago, BxEngine said:

You can believe that as your opinion, but the gfs is nowhere near 37 at that time. 

The 06Z GFS MOS has a max temp on Sunday at EWR of 38 F.  Ironically, the GFS MOS also has 8" or more of snow for EWR.  But, those are different statistical correlates and we can't have it both ways.

This is an elevation / N & W storm.  There will be no cold air along the coast.  All hail to king CMC/GEM.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

So gfs is tucked in a bit at 6z but rgem made a se jog. Still tricky for 95 and the coast 

[Stormlover74]

[Stormlover74]

06z euro came west. It needs to stop 

[Snowlover11]

by tomorrow it will be back to the original 2-4”

[TriPol]

Whoa

[Allsnow]

EPS looks really good. 
 

but both the gfs and euro came west 

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

EPS looks really good. 
 

but both the gfs and euro cane west 

 

Euro is like 3 or 4 for us but 6+ west. Less east. 

Eps came way west

[Stormlover74]