LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/17/2025 at 10:17 PM, RU848789 said: NWS-NYC finally corrected their map and reissued. No longer completely inconsistent with Mt. Holly's map...and Mt. Holly just put out the regional map which I like... Expand 8-12 for Mt Pocono wow 4-6 for the south shore is pretty decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 If this busts places in the deep south will see more snow than us this winter. New Orleans looking at a historic snowstorm on some of these models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/17/2025 at 11:50 PM, Rjay said: It's still crap Expand I'm sure you're probably right. My point is. It doesn't matter what model it is. If it's more than 3.5 days before an event. Take that models solution with a huge grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Sref are really amped. Not good for the coast. Hopefully they are wrong . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 12:18 AM, MJO812 said: Sref are really amped. Not good for the coast. Hopefully they are wrong . Expand this is why you should want the Euro as far offshore as it can get. Benchmark track sounds perfect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 12:17 AM, SnoSki14 said: If this busts places in the deep south will see more snow than us this winter. New Orleans looking at a historic snowstorm on some of these models Expand They might have more snow than us even if it doesn't bust. A 4 inch snowstorm still keeps NYC in single digits snowfall and if we don't get any more snow this winter, that will be yet another single digit snowfall winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 12:18 AM, MJO812 said: Sref are really amped. Not good for the coast. Hopefully they are wrong . Expand Yup.. seeing a lot of chatter on the twitter that it’s looking like it will be more amped. As much as CMC/RGEM, who knows. But nobody should be completely discounting the Canadian models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/17/2025 at 8:46 PM, RockawayRowdies said: sign me up.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 If NWS believes their own snowfall map, why hasnt a WSW been issued for the area yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 12:43 AM, the_other_guy said: If NWS believes their own snowfall map, why hasnt a WSW been issued for the area yet? Expand They have issued a WSWatch here for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 12:43 AM, the_other_guy said: If NWS believes their own snowfall map, why hasnt a WSW been issued for the area yet? Expand They've been issued for the NW suburbs where they're most confident of warning level amounts for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 12:17 AM, SnoSki14 said: If this busts places in the deep south will see more snow than us this winter. New Orleans looking at a historic snowstorm on some of these models Expand you are so skeptical of models up here… But you believe models as gospel when they’re showing a Gulf Coast city getting a historic snowstorm? An inch would be historic there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 12:43 AM, the_other_guy said: If NWS believes their own snowfall map, why hasnt a WSW been issued for the area yet? Expand https://www.weather.gov/media/meg/WinterStormCriteriaMEG.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Euro AI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:05 AM, MJO812 said: Euro AI Expand Looks pretty similar. Maybe a tick East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 12:43 AM, the_other_guy said: If NWS believes their own snowfall map, why hasnt a WSW been issued for the area yet? Expand There are WSW in all of Uptons north and west areas. Have been since 3:00 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:14 AM, Franklin0529 said: Looks pretty similar. Maybe a tick East? Expand Ticked East. Very similar to past runs. It really hasn’t wavered much at all since Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Doesn't mean much but the 0z hrrr is well southeast of 18z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Here's the latest Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) for snow amount. Much of the New York City area, including the western half of Long Island is in the "moderate impact" area from snow amount. I continue to think a general 3"-6" snowfall in and around NYC is reasonable. Areas to the north and west, including northwest New Jersey, northern Westchester County and Rockland County could have an area of 4"-8" amounts. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:38 AM, Stormlover74 said: Doesn't mean much but the 0z hrrr is well southeast of 18z Expand Still not good for the coast and the city but a better run than 18z I suppose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:38 AM, Stormlover74 said: Doesn't mean much but the 0z hrrr is well southeast of 18z Expand HRRR is always too amped at the end of its range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:35 AM, Allsnow said: Ticked East. Very similar to past runs. It really hasn’t wavered much at all since Wednesday Expand Yea I been saying that. It's been rock steady since before then I think. Very minor changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:51 AM, BoulderWX said: Still not good for the coast and the city but a better run than 18z I suppose Expand It's also the hrrr at 36 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:56 AM, MJO812 said: Expand Maybe the one solution that would make everyone happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:52 AM, jm1220 said: HRRR is always too amped at the end of its range. Expand Right. I only mentioned because it made a pretty sizeable shift but it's still not very useful so it could shift back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:56 AM, MJO812 said: Expand 12z? Is that the right run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Why oh why is anyone looking at the HRRR beyond 18 hrs? It's crap beyond then. I think it was the little 1/8 SNJ storm where the HRRR was showing 4-5" at ~24 hours out; most got <1". There are other examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 2:08 AM, RU848789 said: Why oh why is anyone looking at the HRRR beyond 18 hrs? It's crap beyond then. I think it was the little 1/8 SNJ storm where the HRRR was showing 4-5" at ~24 hours out; most got <1". There are other examples. Expand What else am I going to do between 7 and 9? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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