Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[Allsnow]

Rgem hgts look flatter early on 

[MJO812]

[CentralNJSnowman]

4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Is there any easy answer to the question, what is the difference between an "A.I." weather model and the regular models? At first glance, it would see that all weather models are "A.I."  

I was thinking about that too.  I have no idea if this is correct, but I would imagine that the regular models don't 'learn'.  So if you have the exact same setup a year from now as you do today, they'll make the exact same prediction, unless they've released an upgrade to it.  But an 'AI' model would learn and presumably improve and might make a somewhat different forecast for an identical setup in the future. 

[mob1]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Rgem hgts look flatter early on 

It's still terrible for most here 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

It's still terrible for most here 

Yup. Still amped.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

It's still terrible for most here 

But it ticked southeast 

[RU848789]

25 minutes ago, RockawayRowdies said:

 

sign me up.

The NWS NYC map below makes no sense as there are watches up for 5-8" for much of the CWA...and obviously no collaboration between offices...Mt. Holly must be factoring in high ratios NW of 95

[TJW014]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Yup. Still amped.

Has me torching in the 50s

[BoulderWX]

35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Not sure where you are, NW NJ? But that looks like one of the best places to be for this event. 

Morristown - I thinking I’m in a decent spot but not seeing anything that would cause them to go with a 6-10 over a 3-6 or 4-8. We shall see

[snywx]

18Z RGEM is an absolute crush job up here. 10"+

[Allsnow]

Icon moved the heaviest snow band into Eastern Pa 

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But it ticked southeast 

By 1.7 miles. 

 

The storm is in 48 hours, that shift means nothing. It's more about whether it's right in the first place, but recents trends have been worrying.  

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

By 1.7 miles. 

 

The storm is in 48 hours, that shift means nothing. It's more about whether it's right in the first place, but recents trends have been worrying.  

It caved to everything else on the other storm so I am not sure I am too confident about what its doing.  It probably ends up close to a GFS/ICON idea in the end which is middle between Euro/RGEM

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

By 1.7 miles. 

 

The storm is in 48 hours, that shift means nothing. It's more about whether it's right in the first place, but recents trends have been worrying.  

What trends? Cmc and rgem is an outlier 

[terrapin8100]

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The NWS NYC map below makes no sense as there are watches up for 5-8" for much of the CWA...and obviously no collaboration between offices...Mt. Holly must be factoring in high ratios NW of 95

This is the updated map

[BoulderWX]

I’m nervous where I am 30 miles west of NYC. If I was in the city or along the coast I’d be keeping my expectations in check. Could be a solid storm but just as much argues the opposite 

[Rmine1]

The big problem for the coast, appears to be that this will be a quick hitter, leaving little time to change over before the precip starts to shut off. 

[NJwx85]

35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

God those are ballsy watch areas I have to say.  If the EPS is even 50% right most of those are going to end up being dropped entirely.

Why are you using the EPS mean to make a snowfall forecast?

[BxEngine]

38 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Difficult to interpolate that chart, but it looks more like just after 18z.  Plus it's the boundary layer.  If it's snowing above, it'll be snowing there.  A sounding would be better.

The sounding shows it below freezing. On the gfs. 

[ForestHillWx]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I’m nervous where I am 35 miles west of NYC. If I was in the city or along the coast I’d be keeping my expectations in check. Could be a solid storm but just as much argues the opposite 

Dude, MMU?

For our area, I’d rather this hug then get shredded out to sea like the prior month plus of potential. Apologies to the costal folks in that scenario.
 

 

[psv88]

Everyone will see snow from this…relax people. Even the NAM is a lot of snow for the coast. 
 

the RGEM is really on it own with the super amped system. 
 

it’s coming 

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Dude, MMU?

For our area, I’d rather this hug then get shredded out to sea like the prior month plus of potential. Apologies to the costal folks in that scenario.
 

 

Yes sir, granted I’m always a little nervous.
 

Agree, I’d rather have a stronger coastal with more precipitation and worry about precip type, but still not seeing support for the 6-10 from NWS unless we get that perfect track 

[mob1]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What trends? Cmc and rgem is an outlier 

Every single model has trended towards moving the heaviest precipitation west of us. You're relying on a front to move through and falling temps, and I think you've been doing this long enough to understand that we usually cool slower than forecasted and with lighter precipitation you'll have BL issues even if it's sufficiently cold aloft.

If the axis of heaviest precipitation moves back east a bit on models I'll be more confident, but right now I think you're setting yourself up for a major disappointment.   

[RU848789]

9 minutes ago, terrapin8100 said:

This is the updated map

Thanks although it's still wildly inconsistent with the Mt. Holly map in NNJ - it's like they grafted the new OKX map onto the old Mt. Holly map.  They need to do better.  

[ForestHillWx]

Long way to go, but that 700 level looks ok to me as it’s parked from outside Philly northeast thru Morris County. Only one model run, but nice to see. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Every single model has trended towards moving the heaviest precipitation west of us. You're relying on a front to move through and falling temps, and I think you've been doing this long enough to understand that we usually cool slower than forecasted and with lighter precipitation you'll have BL issues even if it's sufficiently cold aloft.

If the axis of heaviest precipitation moves back east a bit on models I'll be more confident, but right now I think you're setting yourself up for a major disappointment.   

We are always living on the edge. We do this with every storm. 

[Allsnow]

 

[mob1]

Just now, MJO812 said:

We are always living on the edge. We do this with every storm. 

Of course (I live a few miles from you and actually grew up near Coney Island so know the climate well), it's so frustrating.  

[NJwx85]

18Z RGEM LOL

 

[BoulderWX]

What are we looking at timing wise for the onset of the precipitation?