North and West Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 287 special!I hope the family horse can traverse these conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 12 minutes ago, EWR757 said: The 12Z GFS has ~6" of snow for me in Somerset County, NJ beginning Sunday afternoon, about 0.49" water equiv. The cold air advection begins Saturday evening and as of Sunday morning and beyond the atmosphere is below 0 C. I think elevation may play a significant role with precipitation type and accumulation, the GFS just 25 miles east at KEWR is above freezing in the lowest levels most of the event. I don’t think elevation is a big factor here at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Ukie ensembles 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 12z AI Euro looks great 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 19 minutes ago, North and West said: IMBY question… Should I get the wagon ready to get into town for provisions to keep maw and paw warm out here in the vast interior? . Your root cellar is empty already? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 32 minutes ago, EWR757 said: The 12Z GFS has ~6" of snow for me in Somerset County, NJ beginning Sunday afternoon, about 0.49" water equiv. The cold air advection begins Saturday evening and as of Sunday morning and beyond the atmosphere is below 0 C. I think elevation may play a significant role with precipitation type and accumulation, the GFS just 25 miles east at KEWR is above freezing in the lowest levels most of the event. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Euro has NYC getting down to 2 degrees on Tuesday morning. I wonder if we can go below 0 if we get a good snowpack. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Your root cellar is empty already? Donner Party style dining is inevitable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 7 minutes ago, BxEngine said: ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro has NYC getting down to 2 degrees on Tuesday morning. I wonder if we can go below 0 if we get a good snowpack. Snowy eps run. More chances coming after Sunday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Donner Party style dining is inevitable. . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 10 minutes ago, BxEngine said: ? QPF up this way near KSWF is .40 at 00z Monday (lower than the other 2 soundings) The snowfall map is higher up this way definitely a better snow ratio up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Said f*** it and made a map. For the most part, discounting RGEM/GGEM. I believe it is too strong/amped and will cave to the SE. If it doesn't, a lot of us are going to be unhappy. Pretty confident on a rain/mix at the start for the NJ Coastal Plain (more so here) and some for E Long Island too. Otherwise, I went with a blend of GFS, Ukie, and Euro. Think it comes a bit farther west and lightly stronger/juicer than the Ukie/Euro, but not to GFS/GEM amounts. Overall think it's a good 3 - 4 - 5 inch event for most of us, except for extreme south/east spots. Given the speed of this thing, I think the upper limit is 7, maybe 8 inches somewhere just NW of 287. Aside from the coast, ratios should be increasing as the storm progresses, highest farther NW, up to 15:1. Feel free to roast, criticize, wring me by the neck, etc. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Upton’s latest snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Snowy eps run. More chances coming after Sunday I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if we don't cash in with the storm towards the end of next week, our next chance won't come until mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 12z AI Euro looks great The thing has been really steady throughout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 15z SREF looks warm for the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago SREFS are bit out of range right now 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 15z SREF looks warm for the coast. The track is great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, Rjay said: The differences between the cmc and euro/ukie are large. Gfs would be a compromise but it's a trash model. I lean way towards the euro/ukie combo than the Canadian combo but a blend of them is usually the way to go when there's such a split. It does seem like the cmc is an outlier but I don't think it can be discounted entirely either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Winter storm watch just issued for my hometown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.250119T1700Z-250120T0900Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 308 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 8 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Mt. Holly has issued a WSW for NW NJ and eastern and NE PA for 6-10” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Mt holly issued for nw nj as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Going to be an odd looking accumulation map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago As expected.. General 6-8" NW of the TZB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Someone is going to get nam’d this run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Nam is caving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago NAM is RGEM’d up 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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