Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[winterwx21]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

They could also both be wrong and the gfs/icon/ukie be more correct

Yeah a middle ground solution still seems most likely, which would be good for our area. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They could also both be wrong and the gfs/icon/ukie be more correct

Or the Euro/EPS 

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The nam should already be as it had nothing as recently as last night

True. It's likely that both the RGEM and NAM will be embarrassed. 

[the_other_guy]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I guess a weaker version. That was a bombing low and very little to no snow expected for the city. 

this is more of an Arctic front, much more potent air mass and the storm forming.

it has similarities, but it’s different

[the_other_guy]

I don’t understand I listen to a lot of people who know more than me and they said the NAM was trash nowadays

 

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

They could also both be wrong and the gfs/icon/ukie be more correct

It could be a little too amped and a little too far west but it still has been on this for days where the Nam is in la-la land 48 hours before game time. The nam is garbage. 

[NJwx85]

14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

But that's my point. The fact that the historically over amped NAM isn't over amped right now could be a sign that the RGEM is way off and rain isn't as much of a concern. 

When the NAM is this flat at this range, it can sometimes mean that the other models are over amped. Again, it's an outlier right now.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

I don’t understand I listen to a lot of people who know more than me and they said the NAM was trash nowadays

 

 

The NAM is a good model inside of 36hours. It's good for those that know how to use it. And it's better with certain setups than others.

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

When the NAM is this flat at this range, it can sometimes mean that the other models are over amped. Again, it's an outlier right now.

Yes so you agree with the point that I made. The NAM being so flat could be a sign that the RGEM is over amped. 

[mob1]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not going to happen.  These arctic fronts stay offshore.  Rgem and cmc are wrong here. 

I don't understand how, after all the disappointing trends you've lived through, you can still so confidently proclaim this.

Weather is always transient and ever-changing (which is why forecasting is such a humbling hobby). 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It could be a little too amped and a little too far west but it still has been on this for days where the Nam is in la-la land 48 hours before game time. The nam is garbage. 

Yeah either way the nam did a horrible job and the storm hasn't happened yet

[Rjay]

Just now, mob1 said:

I don't understand how, after all the disappointing trends you've lived through, you can still so confidently proclaim this.

Weather is always transient and ever-changing (which is why it's forecasting is a humbling hobby). 

It's metsfan

[Blizzwalker]

Surprising how the recent 12Z GFS op has a max ( Kuchera) of 12 inches right over my part of Orange co (Middletown) -- yet same area had an odd snowhole minimum of 2 inches right in same spot in recent (9 am) NWS expected snow totals graphic.  It's not that 12 inches on op run is way too high--- it's that same spot was highest predicted amount for large NW area (GFS), and lowest for same large area. It kind of paints the GFS in an outlier light.

[Rjay]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not going to happen.  These arctic fronts stay offshore.  Rgem and cmc are wrong here. 

Here's a new avatar for you

 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Yes so you agree with the point that I made. The NAM being so flat could be a sign that the RGEM is over amped. 

Not just that the RGEM might be over amped. It's a sign that perhaps some of the modeling is too strong. Again, I'm not giving it much weight at this stage given that the rest of the guidance appears mostly locked in.

[NJwx85]

The next real threat around here will be towards the end of next week as the blocking breaks down and the cold air departs.

[Stormlover74]

Ukie still looks good

Very consistent with 3 to 5

[vegan_edible]

why are we so concerned about the meso models rn? honestly the 00Z runs today will be more telling with those. we're still in the long-ish range for the RGEM and NAM so both of them make sense as the greatest outliers. we need to get the frontal development figured out before we really merit any good solution to those two models 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

why are we so concerned about the meso models rn? honestly the 00Z runs today will be more telling with those. we're still in the long-ish range for the RGEM and NAM so both of them make sense as the greatest outliers. we need to get the frontal development figured out before we really merit any good solution to those two models 

That's why we're looking for potential nw trends on the globals

[Rjay]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

That's why we're looking for potential nw trends on the globals

Ukie is weaker and well SE of the other non NAM 12z runs

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Let’s rain then watch Louisiana double our YTD snowfall next week 

Yeah that was a depressing CMC run. This storm got warmer and Rainier and the next storm goes further South and misses us all together LOL.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah that was a depressing CMC run. This storm got warmer and Rainier and the next storm goes further South and misses us all together LOL.

they're already looking forward to the storm next Friday lol

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah that was a depressing CMC run. This storm got warmer and Rainier and the next storm goes further South and misses us all together LOL.

Focus on the UKMET run that just came out, lol. Pretty much perfect for snow for the entire area. Hopefully Euro will continue to look good in an hour as well. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Focus on the UKMET run that just came out, lol. Pretty much perfect for snow for the entire area. Hopefully Euro will continue to look good in an hour as well. 

20 minutes or so now that it comes out earlier 

[TJW014]

I'd be ecstatic with the Ukie run

[BoulderWX]

43 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

10 miles E/W is the difference between 0” and  7+ here in Morris County. 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah that was a depressing CMC run. This storm got warmer and Rainier and the next storm goes further South and misses us all together LOL.

The next storm never had a chance of making it up this way. This storm reinforces the block and brings the arctic high in behind it. There's a chance at something this time next week before the pattern completely breaks down. We could reach 60 degrees before the end of the month as a southeast ridge develops and the pattern supports cutters.

[EastonSN+]

Kind of close....

[NJwx85]

Just now, TJW014 said:

I'd be ecstatic with the Ukie run

Of course you would, but you live in South Jersey. That's the same distance from NYC to Riverhead. So in other words, two completely different worlds meteorologically. 

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Of course you would, but you live in South Jersey. That's the same distance from NYC to Riverhead. So in other words, two completely different worlds meteorologically. 

One of the reasons why the metro area is such a difficult spot for everyone to cash in. What's good for one can screw someone else.