Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[Rjay]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

It’s gonna rain on us isn’t it rjay 

Like Forky said there's really nothing to stop this from coming west up until game time.  I think it's likely but we'll see.  I hope it snows for all. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, TJW014 said:

Well out of range, HRRR has rain north of I-287

It's supposed to be rain at 12Z Sunday (7 am EST) as the cold air hasn't moved in yet.  And stop looking at the 48 hr HRRR, the one that predicted 6" for that little SNJ 1" storm around 1/9. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It’s gonna rain on us isn’t it rjay 

You'll rain and then have a high of 17

[NittanyWx]

Maintain the view from yesterday that the risk here is likely more to the coastal boundary layer and feel good about snows north of the merrit and west of 287.  

 

 

[Snowlover11]

Reggie is mind killer, even immediate north and west areas of nyc get screwed too.

[MJO812]

[Rjay]

Gfs looks plenty cold

[Stormlover74]

[Allsnow]

Gfs ticks east 

[Stormlover74]

Basically the same. A tick east but more mixing in Monmouth but just noise 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Basically the same. A tick east but more mixing in Monmouth but just noise 

 

[TJW014]

Paste job for here

[Rjay]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

Kuchera sucks.  If you need to post a snow map just post 10:1 and you can reasonably figure out your total based on other parameters, soundings and experience. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

This low is flying. It's basically snows/rains for less than 12 hours but it's going to come down hard in some places. 

[Snowlover11]

GFS, brings the weenies back to life.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Basically the same. A tick east but more mixing in Monmouth but just noise 

Sigh of relief. 

[Rjay]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Sigh of relief. 

It ticked like 6 miles east lol 

[jm1220]

Just now, Rjay said:

It ticked like 6 miles east lol 

Just glad it didn’t lurch NW. But plenty of time for that to happen still. 

[Rjay]

Just now, Rjay said:

It ticked like 6 miles east lol 

Actually it's the same imo

 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Kuchera sucks.  If you need to post a snow map just post 10:1 and you can reasonably figure out your total based on other parameters, soundings and experience. 

There's a lot of debate among meteorologists about it. At least Kuchera takes something into account while 10:1 takes nothing into account. The Kuchera maps are far from perfect but they help in situations in which you're going to be better or worse than 10:1 ratio. 

[Rjay]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

There's a lot of debate amount meteorologists about it. At least Kuchera takes something into account while 10:1 takes nothing into account. The Kuchera maps are far from perfect but they help in situations in which you're going to be better or worse than 10:1 ratio. 

Yea but you can look at the other parameters or soundings and use your experience from tracking these storms for years to figure that stuff out. 

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Reggie is mind killer, even immediate north and west areas of nyc get screwed too.

We would be fine here in Rockland County even on the RGEM. Got to be able to smell the rain to get the heaviest snowfall.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Rjay said:

Yea but you can look at the other parameters or soundings and use your experience from tracking these storms for years to figure that stuff out. 

You're asking alot of some people 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Just glad it didn’t lurch NW. But plenty of time for that to happen still. 

Why are you so cautious ? Just enjoy model tracking and hope for the best.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Why are you so cautious ? Just enjoy model tracking and hope for the best.

I wouldn't be confident of a mostly snow event even where I am

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Yea but you can look at the other parameters or soundings and use your experience from tracking these storms for years to figure that stuff out. 

Kuchera almost always over inflates. Rarely do you see it accurately predict under 10:1. 

[winterwx21]

Just now, Rjay said:

Yea but you can look at the other parameters or soundings and use your experience from tracking these storms for years to figure that stuff out. 

Yeah that's true. That's the best thing to do, but I don't see a problem with posting Kuchera maps since they help at least somewhat. For many of our events they've been closer to reality when they've showed very good or very poor snow ratios. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Why are you so cautious ? Just enjoy model tracking and hope for the best.

K.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why are you so cautious ? Just enjoy model tracking and hope for the best.

Why are you such a weenie?

[NJwx85]

It's a bit troublesome to me that the NAM is so weak with development. I think it's because it's quite a bit less amped up than even the 12z GFS. Usually in this type of setup the NAM would be showing a coastal hugger. It's completely on its own and the rest of the modeling has been fairly consistent so I'm largely tossing it, but it's still possible that things don't get going quickly enough.