ILoveWinter Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:20 PM, the_other_guy said: if you don’t mind me asking, why are you going so low? I think this could be a 3 to 6 inch storm. Maybe more Expand Certainly could be but I’d be more comfortable with 3-6 if things look that way tonight on most models. Also it’s for the immediate metro, it’s higher N&W with better ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:59 PM, EastonSN+ said: The reason there is trepidation is forky stated yesterday that this could easily be rain. Expand look, you guys want Miller A’s and coastal storms. This is part of it. there is a reason why New York City had such a low snowfall average before the real effects of climate change kicked in. to get a major storm in New York City you’re always on the edge of a rain snow line because of the warm Atlantic and the nature of the coastline. you look at places like Raleigh or Atlanta and they get these periods of prolonged ice because cold air gets trapped in. It’s almost impossible to do in New York City. Off the top of my head I remember it in 1994 to kick off that brutal winter. I also remember it on Valentine’s Day in 2007. We live in an area where it’s either going to snow or it’s going to rain and the difference is not that much. this was masked in the 2000s and 2010s when the storms got so large because of climate change that they just pulled enough cold air in and you had Long Island getting 2-3 feet of snow. I grew up on Eastern Long Island, that isn’t normal…but if you hung around for that 15 year period you thought it was. So basically ride the wave with this one and hope the West train stops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:21 PM, jm1220 said: What did the city get in the storm last Feb, I think 2/13? I had 7” in that one. Expand Around 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:24 PM, the_other_guy said: I also remember it on Valentine’s Day in 2007. Expand I like calling that one the "Silica Gel" storm. So much accumulated graupel! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:26 PM, ILoveWinter said: Around 3 Expand 3.2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Euro AI looked great at 06z very locked in for days now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nam looks showery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3k Nam much more consolidated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 This is what you get when you click on the "range" button lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:36 PM, Stormlover74 said: 3k Nam much more consolidated Expand Post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:47 PM, allgame830 said: Post! Expand End of its range but it looks identical to 06z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:09 PM, MJO812 said: Agree Expand there's a zero percent chance of rain on Sunday, it's going to be ALL SNOW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:42 PM, Rjay said: This is what you get when you click on the "range" button lol Expand lol okay and people were getting upset over 1-3 inch forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:27 PM, JonClaw said: I like calling that one the "Silica Gel" storm. So much accumulated graupel! Expand then we had it again on St Patrick's Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:24 PM, the_other_guy said: look, you guys want Miller A’s and coastal storms. This is part of it. there is a reason why New York City had such a low snowfall average before the real effects of climate change kicked in. to get a major storm in New York City you’re always on the edge of a rain snow line because of the warm Atlantic and the nature of the coastline. you look at places like Raleigh or Atlanta and they get these periods of prolonged ice because cold air gets trapped in. It’s almost impossible to do in New York City. Off the top of my head I remember it in 1994 to kick off that brutal winter. I also remember it on Valentine’s Day in 2007. We live in an area where it’s either going to snow or it’s going to rain and the difference is not that much. this was masked in the 2000s and 2010s when the storms got so large because of climate change that they just pulled enough cold air in and you had Long Island getting 2-3 feet of snow. I grew up on Eastern Long Island, that isn’t normal…but if you hung around for that 15 year period you thought it was. So basically ride the wave with this one and hope the West train stops. Expand No, NYC consistently averaged between 30-35 inches of snow for the first 5 decades they kept snowfall records, the climate was entirely different back then and both January and February averaged temperatures in the 20s (and February was our coldest month.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:16 PM, jm1220 said: I wouldn’t worry about anything the HRRR says. I’m not losing hope east of the city but we need these west trends to stop pronto. Expand it's not going to rain here, I wouldn't take those models seriously that show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:10 PM, tristateweatherFB said: Yes I see it but the way I read it sounding tucked in. If precip arrives early could be rain but also means more tucked Expand precip won't start before around 2 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Even it rains it will transition to snow everywhere Sunday evening. For coast expect 2-4” of snow even out to the twin forks. North and west 3-6” look good. it’s coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:09 PM, Stormlover74 said: It has precip early Sunday morning which no other models have and before the cold air has arrived Expand yeah, we can't take that seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:55 PM, LibertyBell said: it's not going to rain here, I wouldn't take those models seriously that show that. Expand Could definitely rain especially at the onset 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:56 PM, psv88 said: Even it rains it will transition to snow everywhere Sunday evening. For coast expect 2-4” of snow even out to the twin forks. North and west 3-6” look good. it’s coming Expand yeah and it will snow until 2 am, so it would be really difficult not to get at least 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:56 PM, Stormlover74 said: Could definitely rain especially at the onset Expand I mean anything that falls after 2 pm, it's going to be nice to see those temperatures fall hour by hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:57 PM, LibertyBell said: yeah and it will snow until 2 am, so it would be really difficult not to get at least 3 inches. Expand Forecast low Sunday night will be 18 even out here in Suffolk. I really like Upton call for 3” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:55 PM, LibertyBell said: it's not going to rain here, I wouldn't take those models seriously that show that. Expand As of now there's definitely a chance of rain particularly east of I95. We'll see how it shakes out though over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:56 PM, psv88 said: Even it rains it will transition to snow everywhere Sunday evening. For coast expect 2-4” of snow even out to the twin forks. North and west 3-6” look good. it’s coming Expand I think we’ll be fine as long as the low stays SE of the island. As always if we see it track over NJ we’ll have a problem. The cold air press/fast flow will hopefully nudge it east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:04 PM, Rjay said: As of now there's definitely a chance of rain particularly east of I95. We'll see how it shakes out though over the next 24 hours. Expand I’m expecting rain until 3-5 pm Sunday, then transition to snow out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Early thoughts on the rgem is that it looks identical to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 3:06 PM, Allsnow said: Early thoughts on the rgem is that it looks identical to 06z Expand Either the rgem or AI gonna fail miserably. Both have not moved much in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now