donsutherland1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 12:17 PM, Nibor said: If the Euro AI is close to the final outcome that’s a major win for it. It’s been steady for days now. Expand It has been very consistent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 12:35 PM, TJW014 said: Still unchanged from my view of this being a rainstorm for coastal Monmouth/Ocean County + Eastern LI. Thinking the gradient line sets up along I-95/278/Belt Pkwy Expand I can’t bear the thought of it raining on LI make it stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 11:48 AM, MJO812 said: 6z Euro AI Expand Looks a tick closer in a bit more precip if I'm not mistaken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 12:55 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: I can’t bear the thought of it raining on LI make it stop Expand I’m hopeful we get something but it’s a thread the needle situation where we need the S/W to track favorably and not be too amped. Areas just inland are favored for the best outcome but hopefully the less amped Euro has a clue here. We’re getting closer to the point though that RGEM doesn’t normally move much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 12:35 PM, TJW014 said: Still unchanged from my view of this being a rainstorm for coastal Monmouth/Ocean County + Eastern LI. Thinking the gradient line sets up along I-95/278/Belt Pkwy Expand You should still see a change to snow as the event unfolds as arctic air comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 12:40 PM, donsutherland1 said: It has been very consistent. Expand Thanks Don. I am excited about the AI being so consistent. Of course the event hasn't happened yet however if the event is closest to what the AI has been showing, then we may have a more accurate closer range model which is a big win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:00 PM, jm1220 said: I’m hopeful we get something but it’s a thread the needle situation where we need the S/W to track favorably and not be too amped. Areas just inland are favored for the best outcome but hopefully the less amped Euro has a clue here. We’re getting closer to the point though that RGEM doesn’t normally move much. Expand Hopefully 0z represented the furthest west it will go, but yes it will need to tick east a bit more for coastal sections. Even the cmc was less amped than the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 12:40 PM, donsutherland1 said: It has been very consistent. Expand What has its verification score been? I know early on it had some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:02 PM, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Don. I am excited about the AI being so consistent. Of course the event hasn't happened yet however if the event is closest to what the AI has been showing, then we may have a more accurate closer range model which is a big win. Expand I suspect that it may be another year or two before AI becomes decisively more skillful with its forecasts. Sooner would be better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I think at this point 2-4 is a good call for the immediate metro with less as you go east. Even that would get me excited as it's been 2 years since a sort of moderate snowfall in the City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:16 PM, ILoveWinter said: I think at this point 2-4 is a good call for the immediate metro with less as you go east. Even that would get me excited as it's been 2 years since a sort of moderate snowfall in the City. Expand if you don’t mind me asking, why are you going so low? I think this could be a 3 to 6 inch storm. Maybe more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 GFS has been trending closer to the coast. Lost the double barrel low at 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:16 PM, ILoveWinter said: I think at this point 2-4 is a good call for the immediate metro with less as you go east. Even that would get me excited as it's been 2 years since a sort of moderate snowfall in the City. Expand What did the city get in the storm last Feb, I think 2/13? I had 7” in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:20 PM, Nibor said: GFS has been trending closer to the coast. Lost the double barrel low at 6z. Expand If the low goes SE of Montauk I would think we’d be ok-the arctic air should wrap in close to the low. It’s those solutions where it plops over LBI that we’d be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:08 PM, Nibor said: What has its verification score been? I know early on it had some issues. Expand It’s done well at 500 mb, but not as well with specific synoptic events. I suspect it’s still a year or two away from doing better with such events (assuming that it’s still “learning” in real-time). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:20 PM, Nibor said: GFS has been trending closer to the coast. Lost the double barrel low at 6z. Expand That's a big jump on the last frame. Really the standard Euro and eps are the biggest outlier. UKMET is a little better and closer to the coast from the European suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:16 PM, ILoveWinter said: I think at this point 2-4 is a good call for the immediate metro with less as you go east. Even that would get me excited as it's been 2 years since a sort of moderate snowfall in the City. Expand honestly the only model showing 2-4 is the euro, every other model doubles that minus the euro/nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:31 PM, Snowlover11 said: honestly the only model showing 2-4 is the euro, every other model doubles that minus the euro/nam Expand I’d feel pretty good about 6” west of the Tappan Zee and along I-287/I-87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:36 PM, jm1220 said: I’d feel pretty good about 6” west of the Tappan Zee and along I-287/I-87. Expand Yeah, this is quickly becoming an away from the coast event. Would suck here, but at least the ski resorts would get some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Well out of range, HRRR has rain north of I-287 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 this is not a rain storm guys. Let’s not get ridiculous here 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:57 PM, TJW014 said: Well out of range, HRRR has rain north of I-287 Expand Yeah I know I put too much stock in it, but forky yesterday saying it could easily be rain is still residing in my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:58 PM, the_other_guy said: this is not a rain storm guys. Let’s not get ridiculous here Expand The reason there is trepidation is forky stated yesterday that this could easily be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:57 PM, TJW014 said: Well out of range, HRRR has rain north of I-287 Expand How far out does the hrrr go out? I thought only 48 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:58 PM, the_other_guy said: this is not a rain storm guys. Let’s not get ridiculous here Expand We're relying on good timing to be on the right side of the boundary, and very often these fronts slow down a bit as we get closer to the event. Rain (even a bit inland) is always a possibility. Hopefully we'll see some positive trends today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 1:58 PM, the_other_guy said: this is not a rain storm guys. Let’s not get ridiculous here Expand Agree 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:00 PM, tristateweatherFB said: How far out does the hrrr go out? I thought only 48 hrs Expand It has precip early Sunday morning which no other models have and before the cold air has arrived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:09 PM, Stormlover74 said: It has precip early Sunday morning which no other models have Expand Yes I see it but the way I read it sounding tucked in. If precip arrives early could be rain but also means more tucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 2:10 PM, tristateweatherFB said: Yes I see it but the way I read it sounding tucked in. If precip arrives early could be rain but also means more tucked Expand I wouldn’t worry about anything the HRRR says. I’m not losing hope east of the city but we need these west trends to stop pronto. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nam looks like it has the boundary further west than the past runs near the coast at hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now